2021 Bounce-Back Candidate: The Return Of Joe Burrow

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I can admit that coming in, I wasn’t crazy about Joe Burrow having success as an NFL Quarterback. Not this season at least. Because of what Covid-19 stripped away from the NFL, I thought for sure that a lot of rookies coming out of the 2020 NFL Draft would have a hard time. For once, I’m glad to be wrong. This past season we got to see a lot of prime rookie talent bubble to the surface even amongst the struggles and pitfalls that were laid out in front of the NFL schedule. And one guy that stood out to me was Joe Burrow.

Burrow has the swag to be a great Quarterback and from the looks of the way he started the season (minus the Week 1 game against the LA Chargers), he was pretty solid. After posting just 193 yards passing in the aforementioned game, Burrow would go on a tear for the next 3 weeks; throwing for over 300 yards against the Browns, Eagles, and Jaguars before running into the buzzsaw that was the Ravens defense.

After playing the Ravens, Burrow would still have some pretty decent games passing the ball. He particularly likes to face the Browns as he threw another 406 yards on their defense and threw 313 yards against the Colts – though he didn’t have a touchdown in that game.

Joe Burrow eventually got his season cut short after playing for 10 weeks. He would face off against the Washington Football Team and go down with a torn ACL/MCL injury and miss the remainder of the season. He finished the year with 2,688 yards, 13 touchdowns, 5 interceptions, and a 2-7-1 QB record.

Yeah, I know what you’re thinking. “Dude he finished just 2-7-1? That’s not good.” Remember too that the Cinncinati Bengals offensive line wasn’t great, to begin with, finishing ranked 30th in the league among olines for the 2020 season, per PFF.

Burrow showed tremendous poise in the pocket despite getting sacked 32 times (T-2nd most in the league) and took 42 QB hits (T- 5th most) behind a terrible offensive line. If the Bengals plan to keep Joe Burrow around for the long-term, fixing that oline in the next draft should be at the top of their list.

As far as weapons, he’ll have a nice WR corp with the combination of Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, and maybe John Ross (but probably not). I would expect the Bengals to bring in another WR whether it’s through the draft or free agency. A.J. Green has likely played his last season in Cinncinati after playing on an $18M franchise tag last season so there is a space to fill.

Joe Mixon is also a nice weapon to have in the run game. The versatile running back has had some health issues of his own the past season but overall is one of the better dual-threat backs in the league. Mixon was able to rush for over 1k in yards 2 out of the 4 seasons with the Bengals so far. Adding a back like Mixon with whatever additions the Bengals make this offseason is definitely pointing Joe Burrow to have a nice bounce-back next season.

Granted, it won’t be easy.

From a competition standpoint, Joe Burrow and the Bengals will have stiff competition inside both the conference and the division with rising stars like Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson; the latter who is actually inside his division, on the come up. The Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes also looks to be a significant thorn in the side of anyone that looks to progress deep into the playoffs, as well from the AFC. Not to mention, other QBs like Justin Herbert and even Ryan Tannehill looking to make their marks next season too.

The competition is real in the AFC. For now, getting out of the AFC North will present its own challenges with the Browns making improvements with the addition of Head Coach Kevin Stefanski; as well as the Ravens’ eventual long-term deal with Lamar Jackson and whatever Pittsburgh decides to do with life after Ben Roethlisberger.

Joe Burrow also has his own hurdles to pass before he can worry about the competition. Recent reports on his recovery are going well and should begin running. This progress update puts him at 10 weeks post-surgery from the ACL/MCL reconstruction surgery that he had on Dec. 2. The complete recovery time is about 9-12 months. As it stands, that would put him at about the start of the regular season at the 9-month mark. The Bengals QB has stated that he aims to start the regular season but the Bengals organization, as well as the doctors, will have the final say on that.

Joe Burrow will also have to tighten up his passing skills when he gets back to throwing as he continues to progress with no setbacks during his recovery. Burrow averaged just 6.7 yards per attempt, ranking 25th among Quarterbacks for the 2020 season. His accuracy could use some tightening too, especially with the deep ball. Burrow completed just 20% of his deep ball passes and his On Target % ranked 24th in the league at 75.3%. It wasn’t all bad last season. Burrow was relatively clean on his bad throw %, ranking inside the Top 10 in that category at 14.8%. He also completed just over 65% of his passes on the season too.

Joe Burrow was a top prospect coming out of college and showcased some of that talent despite the shortened season. Burrow has his work cut out for him but he has the chance to be great going forward in his career.

 

 

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