It’s no secret the Baltimore Ravens are a top-rushing offense in the league. It helps translate to wins and fantasy football production, making anyone in the Ravens’ backfield a hot commodity. Their rushing prowess is the reason why Lamar Jackson, JK Dobbins, and Gus Edwards are considered solid fantasy options this year.
Many have high expectations for second-year running back JK Dobbins. He burst onto the scene during his rookie campaign, especially in the back half of the 2020 regular season. He finished the year with 805 rushing yards, 18 receptions, 120 receiving yards, and nine rushing touchdowns. Those stats equated to 168.5 fantasy points in PPR formats. The Ravens’ running back finished as the RB24 in fantasy football while averaging 11.2 points per game.
Dobbins is an athletic rusher who has the potential to become one of the top backs in the NFL one day. For that reason, his ADP has risen a considerable amount compared to last year. He’s currently ranked 40th on Fantasy Pros, meaning he’s being drafted in rounds 3-4 depending on the number of players in your league.
Drafting him that high means you’re spending a considerable amount of draft capital to obtain him. Since he’s going in the late third to early fourth round in redraft formats, many are taking Dobbins as one of their top running back options in fantasy football. With Jackson and Edwards likely taking carries away from Dobbins, the question has to be asked, is JK Dobbins worth drafting at his current ADP? Let’s take a closer look into the Ravens’ prospect.
Fantasy Football: What Should We Expect from Dobbins?
2021 Fantasy Football Projections
Baring no injuries, Dobbins is in line to play a major role in the Ravens offense. Mark Ingram is no longer in the equation and Dobbins is a much better rusher than his teammate Gus Edwards. For that reason, Dobbins will be the starting running back for the Baltimore Ravens this year. With that comes more opportunities, giving him more volume to help him become a better fantasy football asset.
Dobbins is projected to have a solid second year for the Ravens. ESPN’s 2021 projections have JK Dobbins finishing with 943 rushing yards, nine rushing touchdowns, 36 receptions, 272 receiving yards, and two receiving touchdowns. Those numbers would translate to 216.7 points in PPR formats, making him the RB18 on ESPN’s rankings.
It’s interesting to note that ESPN believes that Dobbins will come just 57 yards short of 1,000 rushing yards on the season, even with the added 17th game to the schedule. They also expect him to record twice the amount of receptions, however, it’ll only translate to an additional 150 receiving yards. There have been reports that Dobbins has improved as a receiver, but based on the Ravens’ offensive scheme, we should temper expectations for Dobbins as a receiving threat.
The lack of receiving definitely caps Dobbins’ potential in fantasy football, specifically in PPR leagues. However, his 11 total touchdowns would definitely make up for it. Although ESPN projects Dobbins to finish as the RB18, there is reason to believe he can finish within the top 12 instead. To do that, he’ll have to separate himself away from Gus Edwards as the main option in the Ravens backfield.
Some Reasons for Concern?
This is where many raise the red flag when regarding Dobbins in fantasy football. Both Lamar Jackson and Gus Edwards will receive their fair share of rush attempts, preventing Dobbins from reaching his full potential. As of right now, ESPN projects Edwards to receive 145 carries on the year, while Jackson finishes with 153 carries himself. Based on these numbers, Dobbins is projected to receive 203 carries meaning he’d end up with 50 more carries than Jackson.
Between the three, that would lead to 501 rushing attempts on the year. Compared to last season, the Ravens are projected to run the ball 54 fewer times and would likely still finish within the top three in terms of rush attempts. With that said, Dobbins is line to be the top rusher in Baltimore which should relate to solid fantasy production, regardless of how many carries Edwards and Jackson end up with.
Some believe Baltimore will throw the ball more frequently after bringing in Sammy Watkins and Rashod Batemen to the receiving core. Even so, the Ravens will still rely on the run game, and the addition of the new receivers should not deter you away from Dobbins in fantasy football this year. The Ravens should be an electric offense with Dobbins playing a vital role throughout the 2021 season.
Is Dobbins worth his ADP in Fantasy Football This Year?
Considering everything, JK Dobbins is still in line for a big year. Even though there are reasons to fade him and choose other options at running back, Dobbins should still provide RB2 fantasy production on the year. He still has RB1 upside, as he’s a freak athlete in a perfect scheme to let him thrive. Although there are a couple of red flags, Dobbins is too good of an athlete to pass up, especially in the late third or early fourth round of your fantasy drafts. If he falls to you in that range, select him and you’ll likely have a consistent starting running back for your fantasy football team this year.
