The Tennessee Titans passing attack was the best it has ever been in franchise history last year, making them a key contributor in fantasy football. With opposing defenses focusing on Derrick Henry, the Titans had nearly two 1,000 yard receivers in AJ Brown (1,075) and Corey Davis (984). The Titans were a powerhouse and look to repeat that performance next season. After having one of the most elite offenses in 2020, the front office upgraded the team even more so after acquiring Julio Jones via trade.
It’s no secret that Julio is a massive improvement over Corey Davis, which bodes well for the Titans’ success. However, how will his addition to the offense affect the fantasy outlook for the rest of the roster? For starters, Ryan Tannehill will receive a massive boost in production, as he now has the potential to finish within the top 10. For Derrick Henry, the running lanes should be more open, which could mean he’s in for yet another big season.
The team as a whole benefits from Julio’s presence, but when it comes to fantasy football, the question must be asked, will Julio and AJ both produce like a WR1 in 2021? If they do, you should feel comfortable drafting either one or both if you’re up for it. Even so, fantasy football is about drafting the best value in each round. The higher the value, the better your roster will be after the draft. So, is drafting AJ Brown the smarter choice? Or should you wait and draft Julio one round later? Let’s dig in and see who could be the better option.
Fantasy Football: Big Play AJ or the GOAT?
AJ Brown is currently ranked as the WR8, while Julio Jones is the WR16 on Fantasy Pros wide receiver rankings. According to their ADP, Brown sits at 20, making him a late second-round/early third-round selection. Meanwhile, Jones’ ADP is 36, meaning you can get him late round-three/early round-four. The Titans receiver duo are roughly one round apart, maybe two depending on how your draft goes.
It’s important to know who the other players are that could be available at certain ADPs for someone you may be targeting. This should help you come to a decision sooner when you’re on the clock. For Brown, some players who could be on the board in the early second/late third are DK Metcalf, Michael Thomas, Keenan Allen, or Darren Waller. For Julio, the players that might be available in the late third/early fourth are Chris Godwin, Robert Woods, Mike Evans, CeeDee Lamb, or Chris Carson.
Each athlete just named should provide some decent production in fantasy football. Darren Waller provides a massive edge at the tight end position. So an argument can be made already that it would be smart to draft Waller over AJ Brown, then take Julio Jones if he falls to you at your next pick. Let’s dive further into Brown and Julio’s 2021 projections to get a more clear answer though.
AJ Brown’s 2021 Projection
According to ESPN, AJ Brown is projected to have 137 targets, 88 receptions, 1,285 yards, and nine touchdowns. That would result in a total of 271.79 PPR points on the year. That is for sure WR1 numbers that will help you win your league. If Brown produces numbers like that, he’d be a consistent starter for your fantasy squad, averaging just under 16 fantasy points per game (18 games). In comparison to last year, Brown would have finished as the WR7 had he put up that stat line in 2020.
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Brown is likely going to receive the same amount of passing targets, perhaps even more, as he has built chemistry with Ryan Tannehill. Quarterbacks tend to throw to who they’re comfortable with, and AJ Brown will be Tannehill’s top target next year. With that said, Julio’s presence should not sway you away from drafting AJ Brown, as he has a legitimate chance to be a top-five wideout in fantasy football.
Julio Jones’ Projection
Using the same information from ESPN, Jones is projected to have 117 targets, 78 receptions, 1,094 yards, and seven touchdowns. That would equate to 232.04 PPR points in 2021. That places him as the WR17 in comparison to last year’s final rankings. He’d be averaging just under 13 fantasy points per game (18 games) making him a solid WR2 on the year.
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Julio may start the year slow, but by Week 4 he should be heavily involved with the Titans offense. Jones hasn’t been a touchdown monster throughout his career, but that could all change in 2021. He’s a big-bodied receiver and the Titans are one of the most efficient teams in the red zone. With the attention that Henry pulls that close to the endzone, Jones could find himself open in that area of the field more often than he ever has.
Conclusion
Brown is likely going to score more fantasy points than Jones, but Julio is going to be a consistent fantasy asset this year as well. What’s separating these two is the number of targets they’ll each receive. Receptions are ultra-important in PPR formats, which is the main reason Brown has the edge for fantasy football.
At the end of the day though, Julio Jones provides the better value based on his ADP. Some solid players will be available in the late second/early third that are safer bets who are in a better fantasy situation. Drafting someone like Waller or Michael Thomas, or Keenan Allen over Brown could provide you similar production as the Titans WR1 this year. As for the late third/early fourth round, there is a legitimate chance that Julio winds up being the best player taken in that range.
You can take a high-end TE1, giving yourself a massive advantage in your Redraft league, then take a high-end WR2 in Julio Jones a round or two later. That likely will produce a more well-balanced team for your roster for the 2021 season.
