Fantasy Football: 2023 Bounce Back Candidates

Every offseason, the hardest thing for fantasy managers to do is to look at the previous season and determine which highs and lows will carry over to the following year. Often, players coming off a career year will be overvalued over players who battled injuries and/or diminished production – yet those players have the potential to rebound in a big way at great value. So, let’s take a look at five players that are primed to rebound for the upcoming year. These players can provide massive value to their fantasy managers. These are my 2023 Bounce Back Candidates.

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2023 Bounce Back Candidates #1 – Diontae Johnson, WR – Pittsburgh Steelers

In 2022 Diontae Johnson finished as WR30 in PPR scoring. It was an impressive feat to say the least. Johnson played the season with a rookie quarterback and failed to score a touchdown despite receiving 147 targets. Going into 2023, he is going off the board as WR36 according to Fantasy Pros ADP. That means he is currently going off the board at a cost lower than he produced in his worst-case scenario. Not only is Johnson being drafted on his floor, but he is also being drafted in the basement. There is simply no scenario with the exception of catastrophic injury where he doesn’t massively outproduce his current price.

Johnson has always been a volume monster. That doesn’t figure to change with Kenny Pickett at quarterback, who often struggles to connect deep. His teammate George Pickens is going almost half a round ahead of him, despite having far less production. Leave the highlight reels to Picken’s fantasy managers. I will take the consistent production of Johnson every week.

2023 Bounce Back Candidates #2 – Kyle Pitts, TE – Atlanta Falcons

Kyle Pitts missed seven games in 2022 due to injury. When he was healthy, he had Marcus Mariota as his quarterback for the majority of his games. Many experts have cooled on Pitts, fearing Arthur Smith won’t use him to the best of his abilities. That’s simply not true. Smith did a great job scheming Pitts open, it was Mariota who simply couldn’t throw him an accurate ball.

Pitts is being used more like a deep-medium to deep threat receiver, and less like a tight end. While that is a great sign for his upside, it went largely unrealized. Mariota had a deep ball completion percentage of 23.5%, which was 33rd among NFL quarterbacks. It’s difficult for Pitts to make catches and score touchdowns when his quarterback can’t throw him a catchable pass.

Pitts is currently being drafted in the sixth round according to Fantasy Pros ADP. That is easily the lowest price point on him since coming into the league.

With the exception of Drake London, Pitts should have little competition for targets should Desmond Ridder prove to be an upgrade on Mariota. His current price tag checks in as TE5, which is the range he finished in as a rookie. Look for Pitts to make huge improvements. If Ridder is even marginally better than Ridder, Pitts will be in the conversation with Travis Kelce this season.

2023 Bounce Back Candidates #3 – Darren Waller, TE – New York Giants

Darren Waller was a top-three tight end in PPR scoring in back-to-back seasons in 2019 and 2020. Since then he has battled a seemingly endless string of injuries that have caused him to miss at least seven games in each of the last two seasons. Over those two injury-plagued seasons he finished outside the top-15 tight ends in scoring but still managed to score over 9.5 PPR points per game. The talent was still there, he just couldn’t stay on the field.

A change of surroundings may be exactly what Waller needs for a career revival in 2023. He lands with a Giants team that is devoid of any legitimate pass-catching threats outside of running back Saquon Barkley.

In his career, Waller has topped the 1,000-receiving yard mark twice and could easily do so this year. There is little reason to believe that he won’t be the leader in targets on this offence with all the uncertainty surrounding the wide receiver room.

Waller may not have the upside of TE3 anymore, but if he stays healthy and Daniel Jones is able to continue his upward trajectory, there is no reason to believe that Waller won’t be comfortably inside the top five.  He is currently going as pick 68 in Fantasy Pros ADP and at that price, he makes a prime alternative for fantasy managers who miss out on Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews.

2023 Bounce Back Candidates #4 – Adam Thielen, WR – Carolina Panthers

Adam Thielen’s WR29 finish in 2022 was his lowest finish in any healthy season since his sophomore season in 2015. His season totals behind star teammate Justin Jefferson were not too far out of line with those of his career numbers. He finished 2022 with 70 receptions and 716 receiving yards, not catastrophic enough to lead me to believe he is washed up. The stat that drastically hurt his fantasy finish was his touchdown total. His six touchdowns were on the unlucky side. Typically, Thielen totals closer to 10 touchdowns.

He finds himself in a completely new offense with the Carolina Panthers. Because there’s no proven receivers on this roster, he could very easily find himself as the WR1 on an NFL team once again. Jonathan Mingo and DJ Chark have potential, but with rookie Bryce Young at quarterback, he will be the reliable veteran receiver that a shaky rookie will rely on.

Thielen is going off the board as WR53, 163rd overall in Fantasy Pros ADP and there is no chance he doesn’t outproduce that cost. Even if the Panther’s offense struggles and he finds himself as the number two pass-catcher on the team, WR53 makes him basically free and he would still prove to be a value for your squad.  I’ve made it a habit of drafting him in the late rounds of my drafts and have a very high ownership rate on him, based solely on him being a low-cost, reliable bench option.

2023 Bounce Back Candidates #5 – Ryan Tannehill, QB – Tennessee Titans

I’ve never been a huge Ryan Tannehill believer. Since being thrust into fantasy relevance with Tennessee, he has never been in a high-volume passing attack; always living on borrowed time with an unsustainably high number of rushing totals for a quarterback that isn’t thought to be overly mobile. In 2022 he missed a handful of games. Between his injury and the floor falling out on his rushing totals, he dropped all the way down to a QB26 finish.

The Titans have revamped their passing game to an extent and now sport a trio of capable pass-catchers. Chigoziem Okonkwo, Treylon Burks and DeAndre Hopkins will be the best trio of pass-catcher he has had in years. Add in the fact that years of pounding seem to be catching up with the aging Derrick Henry and the Titans could easily lean on the passing game more than they have in years.

This isn’t to say that I expect Tannehill to be a top-ten quarterback this season, but at his current price tag of QB32 according to Fantasy Pros ADP, he is simply so cheap that he will make an excellent QB3 on superflex rosters.