As draft season approaches in fantasy football leagues and training camp hits full stride, we start to see daily highlight videos dropping. These videos inevitably lead to several players quickly rising in value. The key is to weed through all the training camp hype and coach speak to determine which players are going to be good producers. Let’s take a look at five players that will be 2023 early-round busts.
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Bijan Robinson, RB – Atlanta Falcons
Hear me out. At his current cost of RB4, 9th overall according to Fantasy Pros ADP, Bijan Robinson will be a bust in 2023. It’s not that I think he isn’t going to be good, but in this offense, I don’t think he will be 9th overall good.
Desmond Ridder is a below-average quarterback, running a below-average offense. Many analysts see this Arthur Smith-led team and draw parallels to Derrick Henry in Tennessee. That simply is not the case. Even the most aggressive projections for his rookie year have Robinson with approximately 1,100 rushing yards and about 300 receiving yards. They also project anywhere between 30-40 receptions and eight touchdowns. These numbers do not make for a top-five running back. They add up to roughly 216 fantasy points in Half-PPR scoring. That would have been good for RB18 last year, just ahead of Alvin Kamara.
Even his most aggressive projections have him as a mid-range RB2, why are fantasy football managers drafting Robinson as a top-five running back? Sure, he is undoubtedly the RB1 in dynasty drafts; but as far as 2023 goes, in this offense, he is more likely an RB2.
Derrick Henry may have been able to find his way to a top-five finish in this offensive scheme, but that was with him consistently rushing for over 1,500 yards. No one is projecting Robinson to rush for nearly 1,500 yards. With 40 receptions being the most that he is projected to catch he would also fall short of an Alvin Kamara-like rookie season, as Kamara had north of 80 receptions.
The numbers just don’t add up. For Robinson to return on an RB5 investment he will have to massively outproduce either his rushing projections or his reception projections, both are unlikely in this offence.
Tony Pollard, RB – Dallas Cowboys
Tony Pollard enters his fifth NFL season and has yet to be a feature back until this year. So why are we anointing him as the next Ezekiel Elliott? Elliott was a generational talent, unlike many others. While Pollard was good as a 1-2 punch last season, he was the beneficiary of some unsustainable efficiency.
Pollard frequently scored on long runs; runs that we can’t expect him to replicate consistently from one year to another. He topped 1,00 rushing yards last year as he received the lion’s share of the workload. While that is expected to continue, he is going to struggle with efficiency.
One thing we can count on every season is for a part-time running back to gain playing time and lose efficiency. The Dallas Cowboys have indicated that they do not believe Pollard is capable of shouldering a heavy workload and are likely to manage his workload. This could lead to Malik Davis being a sneaky value as a handcuff.
He is currently RB9, 22nd overall according to Fantasy Pros ADP, and is going ahead of Derrick Henry. This tells me we are dramatically overvaluing youth, which is ironic considering Pollard is old for a first-time starting running back. Don’t over-extend by drafting Tony Pollard.
Deebo Samuel, WR – San Francisco 49ers
What are we doing with the San Francisco 49ers receivers? According to Fantasy Pros ADP, Deebo Samuel is going as WR16, 38th overall. His teammate, Brandon Aiyuk – who outscored him last season – is going as WR30, 71st overall.
Deebo had one elite season in 2021 where he was a dual-threat player. He finished as the WR2 in fantasy football and he hasn’t done much since. In his three other seasons, his highest fantasy finish was WR32.
Fantasy managers are doing what the 49ers did, overpaying for the possibility of a repeat of 2021. It’s not likely to happen. In the games where Brock Purdy started, Deebo was fourth on the team in fantasy points. In the games where George Kittle, Christian McCaffrey, and Aiyuk all played, Deebo was fourth on the team in fantasy points.
The common belief among fantasy managers is that there are too many mouths to feed in this offense. That is true, but for some reason, everyone assumes Samuel is the one who will be unaffected. In reality, he is the one who takes the hit most.
Give me Brandon Aiyuk 30+ picks later in every draft I’m in. I simply will not roster Deebo Samuel at this unrealistic cost.
Breece Hall, RB – New York Jets
The New York Jets running back is ultra-talented and showed every bit of that talent as a rookie. Unfortunately, his rookie season was cut short by a season-ending ACL tear. This isn’t about talent. Breece Hall is a prime buy-low target in dynasty, but for 2023 he is just not going to produce enough to return value in fantasy football redraft leagues.
He is currently going off the board as RB11, 27th overall according to Fantasy Pros ADP. That’s too high for a player coming off such a severe injury. In the past, we’ve seen players such as JK Dobbins struggle heavily in their first year back. Dobbins missed the first two games of the regular season before returning for Week 3. He then went on to play in the next four games, with little-to-no success in three of them. Dobbins would miss the next seven games before returning to look more like his old self for the final four games of the year.
This is a very likely path for Breece Hall in 2023. He will either be delayed in getting into game action or he will be ineffective if he does play. Hall will be a great player to trade for mid-season when he has grossly underperformed his ADP, but I’m out at his current draft cost. According to Fantasy Pros ADP, he is RB11, 27th overall.
If you needed any further proof of the possibility, just look at the Jets’ actions. They’ve made it abundantly clear they are trying to sign Dalvin Cook, which they wouldn’t do unless they were unsure about Hall’s availability.
Calvin Ridley, WR – Jacksonville Jaguars
Calvin Ridley showed that he was every bit a dominant WR2 to start his career with the Atlanta Falcons. That’s exactly what he was, the second option. Let’s not kid ourselves; Julio Jones was always the alpha in the room and allowed Ridley to exploit man coverage.
Ridley started his career with two top-24 finishes, followed by a top-five finish in fantasy football. That was soon derailed by a combination of offseason foot surgery, mental health issues, and a gambling suspension. He played in only five games in 2021 before injuries and mental health brought his season to an end. In 2022, we saw him traded to the Jaguars while serving his year-long suspension.
Now at the age of 28, a career WR2 who hasn’t played in two years and frequently battles leg injuries is supposed to walk into a new city and be a WR1 with a new team. No chance!
Ridley is going off the board as WR20, 48th overall according to Fantasy Pros ADP. Meanwhile, you can get his teammate Christian Kirk as WR28, 67th overall. Given the choice between the two Jaguars receivers, I will take Kirk at a 20-pick discount all day.
