As we hit August and the casual fantasy football players return to the fray, we begin to see the once-steady ADP get muddied up. The more unpredictable it gets, the more opportunity there is to find values late in drafts. In analyst leagues, it can be tough to “steal” a player late, but in casual home leagues, lesser-known players can fall several rounds in favor of familiar faces. Let’s take a look at five players that are going to be 2023 late-round steals.
Dalton Schultz, TE – Houston Texans
Dalton Schultz has not finished lower than TE12 in fantasy football over the past three seasons, which is his current ADP cost according to Fantasy Pros ADP. Among his three top-12 seasons was a top-three finish in 2021 where he totaled more than 800 receiving yards and five touchdowns.
Schultz signed with the Houston Texans this offseason. The move from the high-flying Dallas Cowboys to the lowly Texans has made him the forgotten man at tight end. Not only is he currently going outside the top-seven at the position, but he is even going outside the top 100 picks in drafts. Schultz is not the sexy pick, but this Texans offense is full of exciting young players and could surprise people.
The wide receiving corps for the Texans appears to have only one legitimate threat (see below). That leaves Schultz in a prime position. It’s not out of the range of outcomes that the 2023 season concludes with Schultz as the Texan’s leader in targets. With a rookie at quarterback, there is no better safety valve than a check-down to a big, reliable tight end. He should easily finish top-five in targets among all tight ends and the fantasy points should follow. Even if this offense struggles to score, Schultz should easily volume his way to a TE5 finish.
Nico Collins, WR – Houston Texans
This is a Texans puff piece, because we have our second straight Texan. Nico Collins is the only legitimate threat in this wide receiver room. Collins has seen a medium level of targets in each of his two NFL seasons, so it’s nothing to write home about. The issue isn’t the volume of targets, it’s the quality of targets.
Collins’ targets from Davis Mills have been some of the least catchable in the entire NFL. Mills was simply an inaccurate quarterback and was never able to improve. The Texans drafted arguably the most accurate passer in all of college football in CJ Stroud. The targets Collins will receive this year are sure to be far more catchable.
Collins figures to be the WR1 in a youthful offense, in a youthful division. While the AFC South may be Jacksonville’s division, the other three teams should be improved and far more exciting. At his current cost of WR60, 148th overall according to Fantasy Pros ADP, he is a solid late-round steal.
Collins doesn’t project to be a high-end fantasy football asset, but at 148th overall price, he can be a perfect flex option to give your roster depth.
Adam Thielen, WR – Carolina Panthers
The once-highly-drafted Adam Thielen has been all but forgotten in fantasy football leagues since the emergence of Justin Jefferson. Now on the Carolina Panthers, the 32-year old looks to reclaim his youth and ride off into the sunset with one more productive year.
Thielen’s lowest finish in fantasy in a complete season since 2015 is WR31. Even last year, when many left him for dead, he was still WR29. He is currently going as WR53, 127th overall according to Fantasy Pros ADP. It’s perplexing to see a receiver who has consistently finished inside the top 3o, going outside the top 50.
The Panthers are similar to the Texans in the sense of them being a team with a rookie quarterback and a young offense without veteran presence to lean on. The only difference is that Thielen provides the Panthers with the veteran presence the Texans lack. The best thing for a rookie quarterback is a strong, reliable tight end. The Panthers lack any threat at tight end, leaving Thielen as the most trustworthy option on the field.
Even among the wide receivers, there is little competition. Rookie Jonathan Mingo was not a highly sought after prospect; and only rose up the draft boards due to an impressive combine. DJ Chark is the biggest competition for targets and even he has never been a known target hog.
Thielen is simply the only answer in this offense. Even if they are bottom-of-the-barrel, Thielen will easily outproduce his WR53 ADP.
Cole Kmet, TE – Chicago Bears
Cole Kmet was on everyone’s sleeper list in 2022. Sadly, that did not come to fruition for the first half of the season. As someone who was all-in on Kmet, rostering him the first six weeks of the season was beyond painful. In many fantasy football leagues, I was forced to drop Kmet to scrape the bottom of the tight end well. He managed to be held without a fantasy point through the first two weeks and didn’t top the ten-point mark until Week 9.
By midseason, the Chicago Bears were left with little choice but to unleash Justin Fields. When they did, Kmet came back to life. After being unusable for the first eight weeks, he somehow managed to finish as TE7.
Kmet is going off the board as TE14, 128th overall according to Fantasy Pros ADP. Even after producing TE7 numbers in essentially half a season, he is an afterthought. At TE14, he simply cannot underperform this ADP.
The reason he has been forgotten is the acquisition of DJ Moore, but that’s not enough to render Kmet irrelevant. He will still have to be a big part of this offense if they hope to succeed. Kmet is a steal at 128 overall.
Sam Howell, QB – Washington Commanders
Sam Howell was excellent in 2021 for the University of North Carolina. Had he come out for the NFL Draft that year he would have been a first-round pick. Instead, he opted to return to a Tar Heels team that saw its entire offensive line and offensive weapons leave for the NFL. This turned out to be a terrible decision – as he quickly found out he couldn’t do it all by himself.
Howell only started one game in his rookie season, the season finale. In that game, he finished with 24 fantasy points and showed off a solid rushing floor. In his final season in college, he rushed for 828 yards. While I don’t expect him to reach that number in the NFL, 400 is certainly within reach. 400 rushing yards would give a solid base to at least make him a usable QB2 for fantasy football superflex leagues.
In addition to his solid rushing floor, he also showed great a ability to push the ball downfield and make “money throws”. If Howell is able to develop to the level of even a league-average passer, his rushing ability will make him a hit for fantasy football.
He is currently being drafted as QB30, 181st overall. So basically, he is going undrafted except in superflex leagues. While it may be too early to call him a must draft quarterback in 1QB leagues, he is certainly a must draft in the late rounds of superflex leagues.
