Week 5 was a bonanza in the NFL, and for fantasy football. Robert Woods showing all doubters that he still had it. Kyle Pitts let our friends in England know who the next great tight end is. Tom Brady continues to defy father time and put up ridiculous stat lines, reminding everyone who the GOAT always was. Finally, we had one of the craziest finished on Monday Night Football. Lamar, Hollywood, Andrews, and Taylor all went for 30+ points leading to some massive swings on Monday night. Lamar took over in the second half, and carried the Ravens to victory in one of the most incredible performances from a quarterback I have ever seen.
We dip our toes into the bye week waters this week; with byes scheduled for the Saints, 49ers, Falcons, and Jets. You heighten each lineup decision, as you have fewer players available to your roster. The decisions you make end up being more critical. Lower expectations on these five players this week, as the boom week you are searching for will likely come from another spot on your roster.
QB: Sam Darnold Under 18.9 Fantasy Points
Sam Darnold came crashing down to earth in Week 5 with a performance that reminded too many of his time in New York. In Weeks 1-3, Darnold threw one interception. In the last two weeks, Darnold has thrown five interceptions. It is not a coincidence the team is now 3-2 after starting the season 3-0.
In step, the Vikings seemed to have fixed the defensive issues that plagued them last season, ranking 6th in PFF grade and 8th in defensive DVOA. I am expecting them to pressure and disrupt Darnold in this game, leading to a suboptimal performance from him. As a result, there should be better options available to start in 1QB fantasy football leagues.
RB: Derrick Henry Under 20.3 Fantasy Points
Why on earth would I fade the goat of fantasy football running backs this week? The matchup screams problems for Henry, as the Titans will be trailing against the best team in the AFC. In addition, Henry will not be able to see his usual work on the ground. While the targets started strong for Henry, he has five combined in his last three games.
Buffalo is the 3rd ranked defense in fantasy points allowed to running backs. They are stout against running backs, as teams need to try and play catch up against the Bills offense. It’s not an ideal scenario for a monster Henry game. I would drop down your expectations for Henry this week.
WR: Mike Evans Under 16.3 Fantasy Points
As someone who faded Evans this offseason, I am eating my fair share of crow early in the year. However, this week’s matchup worries me for Evans, as he plays mainly on the outside for Tampa. The problem with that is Philadelphia has allowed the fewest points to outside wide receivers. Additionally, Darius Slay has returned to form as one of the better corners in the league.
This game is likely to turn into a Godwin game, as Godwin spends over 55% in the slot. This is something Brady will exploit on Sunday. Lower expectations for Evans this week. The Eagles are among the worst fantasy defenses against running backs in football. Brady and company may take a backseat to the run game as they coast to a sizeable lead, given the betting lines favoring them by 7.5 points.
TE: Dalton Schultz Under 11.3 Fantasy Points
Schultz has been exceptional this year and taken over the tight end position for the Cowboys. Something fantasy football players debated this offseason heavily.
Schultz has even joined Lamb and Amari as part of the big three during Michael Gallup’s absence. He is currently the TE4 in fantasy football after five weeks. The issue for Schultz this week is that the Patriots completely shut down tight ends. They are the number one team in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. They are only giving up 11 catches and 106 yards. You are better off benching Schultz if you have another option this week, as the betting line of 48 points is the lowest the Cowboys have experienced this season.
Flex: Courtland Sutton Under 14.7 Fantasy Points
Courtland Sutton has been the definition of a boom-bust wide receiver this year. Sutton has three games under 10 fantasy points and two games over 24 points. Fortunately for Sutton, those games came against two of the worst defenses against wide receivers in Jacksonville and Pittsburgh.
With the matchup against the Raiders coming up, how shocked would you be to learn that the Raiders are the 6th worst matchup for wide receivers? Sutton draws Casey Hayward this week, who has excelled, ranking top-10 in passer rating allowed, and fantasy points allowed per target. On the other hand, Sutton is 1st in the NFL in deep targets and 3rd in air yards. So this matchup boils down to strength versus strength. I anticipate a lower scoring for Sutton because Hayward and the Raiders defense have performed against wide receivers.
Jesse Moeller
Jesse Moeller is a fascinating character. By day, he's a restaurant manager, but during his free time, he transforms into a fantasy football analyst. He's been playing fantasy football since 1999, which means he's been around the block a few times. But his passion for the game has never waned. Jesse is a devoted husband to his wife Andrea, whom he's been married to for five years. They have a lovely daughter Cecilia, who is now four years old. Jesse's journey into content creation began with The League Winners in 2021, and he hasn't looked back since. Dynasty is his passion, and his love for the game is infectious. Jesse is a true degenerate who loves the fantasy football and the community that supports it.