One of these years, I will learn to stop fading Derrick Henry in fantasy football. The guy was my most significant fade in Week 6, and Henry managed to obliterate a good Bills defense to the tune of 40.4 points on Monday night. But, as they say, when you come for the King, you best not miss. Boy, did I ever.
Here are my five players from Week 7 to fade based on fantasy football PPR projections from Sleeper.
QB – Kyler Murray 28.8 Projected Points
Kyler Murray is the 3rd player in NFL history with 1,500 Pass yards and 75% Comp in the first 5 games of season joining Peyton Manning in 2013 & Drew Brees in 2018 pic.twitter.com/BSI4yxAdHV
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) October 10, 2021
Fading Murray’s price this week has nothing to do with Murray or the Cardinals’ talent on offense. It strictly has to do with the bar set for Murray. Expecting 28+ points from a player is a tall task, no matter who the player is. In Week 6, Kyler had four passing touchdowns and still fell short of 28 total fantasy points.
The Texans are on one of the worst teams in the NFL as the Cardinals are 16.5 point favorites. The projected game score is only 47.5 points. With the Cardinals being such heavy favorites, this game does not line up to be a shootout for Arizona. This will limit the ceiling for Murray in Week 7. The floor is incredibly high for Murray, but when you shoot for 28+ fantasy points, the floor is not what we are after.
RB – Antonio Gibson/ WFT Starting RB 14.6 Projected Points
Presumably no Chubb/Hunt on TNF
Antonio Gibson and Alex Collins left yesterday with injuries.
Dalvin, Ekeler, Zeke/Pollard, James Robinson, Najee, Z. Moss on bye.
Setting up for some awesome RB lineups in those Week 7 streets.
— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) October 18, 2021
This week, Gibson has popped up on the injury report dealing with the same shin injury that has hampered him earlier this year. If Gibson does miss this week, I will fade Jaret Patterson in his place. What worries me, along with the injury, is the matchup for WFT.
Washington is going up against the Packers and will be 9.5 point underdogs. The issue for Washington has been the defense, as it has been one of the worst in the NFL. Matching Aaron Rodgers against a suspective defense; McKissic will be heavily involved in a game that will feature a game script ripe for passing, as Heinicke and the crew chase Green Bay. McKissic saw a season-high 61% of snaps in Week 6, which should continue in Week 7. In PPR, I prefer McKissic to Gibson this week.
WR – Jakobi Meyers 16 Projected Points
🥶 Jakobi Meyers 🥶
âť„ 2nd all time in rec yards w/o TD
âť„ T5th all time receptions w/o TD
âť„ led NFL 2020 yards w/o TD
âť„ led NFL 2020 rec w/o TD
âť„ still leads NFL 2021 yards w/o TD
âť„ still leads NFL 2021 rec w/o TDThis kid is doing something historic, ladies and gentlemen.
— Dylan Powell (@PowellAnalytics) October 18, 2021
Jakobi Meyers is one of my favorite stories in the NFL. To see an undrafted player become the alpha of the Patriots passing attack is a story we can all enjoy. Growing up in Seattle, Doug Baldwin was one of the players I cherished. Baldwin also grew from a UDFA to one of the toughest wide receivers in the NFL during his peak.
While I love feel-good stories, I do not let them cloud my judgment on players. Meyers is going up against a team that is one of the worst in the NFL against the run. The Patriots are going to take full advantage of that in this week’s matchup. I expect 20+ carries from Harris against the Jets, as the passing game takes a back seat to the rushing attack. The Jets have been run over so far through five weeks, and I see that continuing on Sunday.
TE – Noah Fant 10.6 Projected Points
Noah Fant… FINALLY!!!
* 11 targets (ties career high)
* 89% snap share
* 9 receptions (career high)
* 97 receiving yards
* 24.7 fantasy points (career high)AND THE POTW Hits AGAIN âś…
-> https://t.co/sY0tAPAVC6 pic.twitter.com/gBnftnkUas
— Cody Carpentier™ (@CarpentierNFL) October 18, 2021
Noah Fant is coming off a career-best fantasy football performance. Fant outdueled Darren Waller in a matchup of two of the best tight ends in the NFL. In his third NFL season, Fant is starting to show that upside that has had fantasy football managers giddy with anticipation the last few years.
Why I am fading Fant this week is Cleveland has put the kibosh on tight ends this season. Through six games, Cleveland has given up a total of 16 receptions for 183 yards. Add in a projected total of 43, and points will be at a premium in this matchup. In addition, Cleveland has faced robust tight-end competition, having faced Kelce, Cook, and Kmet early on. As a result, I am avoiding Fant, if at all possible.
Flex – Tyler Lockett 15.2 Projected Points
Anyone else with Tyler Lockett tilting as we watch Geno keep throwing it at his feet (if he throws it at all) or is it just me?
— Matthew Berry (@MatthewBerryTMR) October 18, 2021
This one pains me, as Lockett was one of “My Guys” going into this year. I had both Lockett and Metcalf pegged as WR1 this season. Lockett has always been a Reception Perception favorite. The data they put together showcased how talented a wide receiver he is. Unfortunately, the Russell Wilson injury throws all of that out the window. Geno Smith is nowhere near the same caliber of quarterback, and after watching Smith the last two weeks, one thing is evident to me. Lockett is the biggest loser, with Wilson on the sideline.
Until Wilson comes back, I cannot trust Lockett to produce, and while Geno will improve as a quarterback the more starts he has, in the meantime, both Metcalf and Lockett drop in my rankings. So I will let the stats paint the picture for you to see:
- Yards/Attempt:
Wilson – 9.6
Smith – 6.9 - TD%:
Wilson – 8.0
Smith – 4.1 - QBR:
Wilson – 61.9
Smith – 34.7 - Completion % Above Expected:
Wilson – 7.3
Smith – 0.1
When Russell Wilson comes back, fire up Lockett with confidence. Until then, you are better off benching Lockett.