How a 17 game schedule will change the NFL’s past, present, and future.
When it comes to opinions about the NFL, there’s few topics where nothing can change my mind: John Gruden is Barry Switzer 2.0, Ben McAdoo was right to bench Eli Manning for Geno Smith, and the biggest thing you’ll never convince me to believe, “There’s too much football”. I want ALL the NFL, ALL the time, and I’m glad the NFL feels the same way; officially announcing adding a 17th game to the regular season.
As a fan, I’m excited about the recent implementations under the new collective bargaining agreement (CBA); which includes an extra playoff team per conference and expanded rosters on game day. From a viewer’s perspective, it’s difficult for me to see the downside from an entertainment value with a 17th game added on the schedule.
That said, I do believe there will be implications by simply adding one game on the calendar; impacting the past, present, and future of the NFL.
Attack on Titans
The first thought on my mind when the news was announced, is that now we’re going to have to change our perspectives on what we deem as noteworthy statistical milestones. I remember being a kid playing NFL2K on Sega Dreamcast and there being an in-game acknowledgment of Rich Gannon reaching 3,000 yards in a season after a long pass to Tim Brown. If that makes you feel old, or for some, really young, that’s just an example of how far the NFL has evolved in what we deem as prolific in terms of passing numbers.
Now, it seems like every year a quarterback gets closer and closer to breaking Peyton Manning’s single-season passing record of 5,477 yards (2013). It’s no stretch to say that mark couldn’t be passed if Patrick Mahomes or Aaron Rodgers had an additional game to play.
The same logic can be applied to receiving and rushing records. It’s not too long ago that Marvin Harrison held the record for most receptions in a season, which was subsequently broken by Michael Thomas. Who’s to say in a pass-happy NFL that couldn’t happen again?
I know to some, adding just one game may seem insignificant to what’s been a standard for over 40 years dating back to 1978, but let’s consider some history. Take rushing numbers for example. In the last five seasons with the 14 game schedule, (1973-1977) the top five running backs from each season ran for a total of 31,478 yards. On average, a top five rusher in those five years ran for 1,269 yards.
When doing that same calculation, for the first four years after moving to a 16 game schedule, (1982 was shortened by a work stoppage) the top five RBs ran for a total of 29,258 yards. They averaged 1,462 yards in those 4 years; roughly a differential of 193 yards.
I can also remember a time in the 90s, in the days of Barry Sanders and Emmitt Smith; where 1,000 yards was seen as a lofty benchmark. I’d have to argue that belief is largely carried over from the days of a 14 game schedule, but that’s exactly why I feel we may have to adjust our views on what a productive season looks like. However, that doesn’t mean that we can’t appreciate truly great seasons from great players.
Consider this: In the history of the NFL, only eight players have rushed for 2,000 yards in a season. Only one has done it in 14 games (O.J. Simpson in 1973). While it’s more than plausible that to say someone like Derrick Henry could break the record for rushing yards in a season with a 17 game schedule, it definitely shouldn’t take away from a season like Simpson’s in 1973.
[pickup_prop id=”5464″]
I’ve talked about the statistics of the past and the present. Since I am projecting a little bit, let’s talk about the future also. Aaron Donald might be the best interior defensive lineman I’ve ever seen. That includes Hall of Famers like Warren Sapp and John Randle.
Already in his career, Donald has compiled 85.5 sacks in 110 games. That’s approximately .78 sacks per game (S/PG). By comparison, the all-time leader is Bruce Smith with 200 in 279 games (.74 sacks per game over 19 seasons). When you do the math considering the uptick in passing attempts in today’s NFL, Aaron Donald is on pace to break the all-time NFL sack record in 258 games. When you factor in the additional game, it’s apparent he’ll also do it in fewer seasons.
At his current rate (13 sacks per season), Aaron Donald is on pace to break the sack record by his 15th season. That’s a record I’ve always considered unbreakable, but with a player like Donald, it’s possible. All I’m saying, with the way things are going, Jerry Rice and Emmitt Smith may want to be on the lookout.
Now, do I think that new records that are made have less impact than the ones previously held? No. Do I also think that it grows the legend of Hall of Famers? Not exactly, either. In doing the research, I still think we have to temper what we call a “good” season, but in the same token, you can continue to hold the same esteem for great players that once held records; and you can still live in the moment of watching the great players of today taking the game to new heights.
No Place like Home/ NFL Calculus
While I love the concept of another game, I have to acknowledge there will be some incidental consequences as to how it affects the team you root for; and may detract from some of the excitement of the final week in the NFL.
First thing is, we now have an odd number of games. This means judging on the schedule, teams will have an extra home game or an extra away game. Case in point, the Dallas Cowboys will go on the road to New England as part of their 17 game slate. For years the NFL has floated out a concept of each team having an inter-conference rival with reasonable geographic proximity. An additional game makes this a more likely reality in the future.
The other part to this, in my opinion, takes away a little of the drama in seeing who qualifies for the playoffs. With a 16 game schedule, it wasn’t uncommon for teams to finish with the same record, then having to interpret an intricate tie-breaker system to determine who rightfully earned a playoff spot.
Usually, by the 15th game, I’m calculating scenarios where other teams can make the playoffs based on the tie-breaker system. With an odd number of games that should simplify the standings and make it easier to tell who the playoff teams are, although the tie-breaker stipulations will remain the same.
[pickup_prop id=”5542″]
The Ball’s in the NFL’s court – The Next Men
If you follow the NBA, one of the most polarizing topics has nothing to do with anything on the court itself, but what happens off it. If you’re not a fan of the NBA, you might be unfamiliar with the term “load management”. I’ll give it my most simplistic definition.
Load management is pretty much a measure the NBA has enacted to rest its players and prevent them from injury due to overexertion. This concept isn’t necessarily new to the NFL. Veterans given days off during training camp and during the regular season is quite common, but it stands to reason that with an additional game and no extra bye week, teams will be even more conscientious on how they manage players.
With every game in the NFL being so pivotal, I don’t believe teams will go as far as sitting a player with a minor injury. However, I do think that players and team doctors will be more hesitant to come back sooner from injury than in years past. I can also see a scenario in which the NFL tinkers with the idea of suspending the Pro Bowl for a short time, allowing players to have more time in their offseason regiments.
The latest CBA also instituded that teams can suit up 48 players on gameday versus the 46 from before. I suspect, even more than we’ve seen before, that teams will deploy more specialists; one or two more (scatback, edge rusher) in their game plan to alleviate wear and tear on their more prominent, more well-rounded stars.
It has been discussed before, but I think we may also see a greater push to adjust, if not do away with kickoffs entirely; for the sake of player safety. Let’s be honest, the players are assets to the league and themselves. I’d be surprised if in five years these measures weren’t a staple of the NFL.
We as fans are truly spoiled to have such a great game grow before eyes. Not only with more games, but in how it impacts the surrounding parts of the game; new TV broadcast deals that include flexible Monday night games and more Monday night doubleheaders, an additional playoff game, and who knows what this means for the future of fantasy football. More games, more records, more action, more beer (shootout to Stone Cold Steve Austin). I hope I speak for all of you, but I’m ready for some more football.
