Arkansas vs. Arkansas State 2025: Keys to the Game and Predictions

It’s Arkansas vs. Arkansas State in a historic 2025 college football matchup at War Memorial Stadium in Little Rock, Arkansas in Week 2.

Saturday’s contest isn’t just a chance to finally see the two biggest football programs in the state meet. It’s also a game that could determine the trajectory of their respective seasons.

Here’s what you need to know before what is perhaps the most important college football game ever played in the state of Arkansas.

Arkansas vs. Arkansas State: Matchup History and Game Excerpts

There is none, to put it bluntly. Legendary Arkansas athletic director John Barnhill once told a future legendary Arkansas athletic director in Frank Broyles that, “we (Arkansas) don’t play Arkansas State here.”

Never before have Arkansas and Arkansas State played each other. And, while it’s happening on Saturday, there’s no guarantee that it’ll happen consistently in the future. So, to the Razorback and Red Wolves faithful, soak up Saturday afternoon in War Memorial Stadium.

“I’m excited to get this game (with) it being the first time we’ve ever played,” Arkansas head coach Sam Pittman said in a news conference on Monday. “I’m glad I’m going to be a part of the history of that.”

Arkansas vs. Arkansas State 2025: Key Players and Predictions

Key Players: Arkansas

Taylen Green began what could turn out to be a dark-horse Heisman Trophy campaign with a six-TD performance in Arkansas’ rout of Alabama A&M on August 30. Green’s mobility and 6-foot-6 frame make him lethal outside of the pocket, and when he’s protected, he can hurl the rock with the best of them.

Green’s main target this season could be Charlotte transfer O’Mega Blake. Blake had 121 receiving yards and a score in Arkansas’ season-opening win, and while it’s too early to definitely call him Green’s No. 1 target, it wouldn’t be a surprise if that turns out to be the case. Against a solid Arkansas State secondary, Blake and his fellow wideouts will have to make some contested catches.

Key Players: Arkansas State

Where else do you start but quarterback? Jaylen Raynor threw for 345 yards and three scores against SEMO on August 30, and he’s proven to be more than capable under center. His success on Saturday will largely depend on that of his offensive line, which will be tasked with keeping an SEC defensive line at bay long enough for Raynor to go through his progressions for four quarters.

Arkansas State’s biggest threat on the outside is undeniably Corey Rucker, who is on his way to becoming one of the best players in A-State history. Rucker is already the leading receiver in Red Wolves history, and he’s coming off of a 1,000-yard season in 2024. If any Arkansas State player can rise to the challenge of winning one-on-one matchups with SEC talent, it’s Rucker.

How Arkansas wins

Physicality, physicality, physicality.

Arkansas should win this game based off simply having bigger, faster and better athletes than Arkansas State. Butch Jones has built Arkansas State back into a solid program and the buzz surrounding this game is deserved. However, Arkansas is the SEC team in this matchup. Even if the Hogs struggle at first, they should at least be able to wear down the Red Wolves in the fourth quarter.

However, that’s easier said than done. In regard to the game plan, allowing Green to get outside of the pocket and utilize his speed could be the key to a Razorback win.

How Arkansas State wins

Just win, baby.

Arkansas State went 7-0 – no, that’s not a typo – in one-possession games a year ago. The Red Wolves know how to win when the chips are down. On the contrary, Pittman has struggled in one-score games since taking over as the head coach at Arkansas. The Razorbacks were 1-3 in one-possession games a year ago and are 7-16 in one-score games in Pittman’s tenure on the Hill.

Of course, in order for those statistics to matter, A-State has to keep the game close late in the fourth quarter. With how slow Pittman’s teams sometimes come out against Group of Five competition, that’s definitely a possibility, and that could happen simply because Arkansas State is a good football team.

But at the end of the day, this is a game that Arkansas should win. No excuses. If the Hogs lose, there’s some serious soul-searching that will need to be done in Fayetteville.