Bonjour, Mesdames et Messieurs! The 2022 NFL season is over. We’ve now entered the quiet part of Dynasty Fantasy Football. We are sitting and waiting for Free Agency and the NFL Draft. I like using this part of the season to trade for players whose value needs to be higher. Below are my buy-low targets during the offseason and the reasoning behind it. It takes a lot of work to make deals with other managers because the range of outcomes for each player changes dramatically after Free Agency and NFL Draft. There’s a possibility you’re trading for someone that will be irrelevant in two months. However, I treat Fantasy Football like Bruce Arians; “no risk it, no biscuit,” or, “scared money, don’t make money.”
Jameson Williams, WR, Lions
The Lions treated Williams’ rookie year almost like a redshirt season, which caused frustration with his fantasy football managers. Williams was drafted 12th overall but didn’t see the field until Week 13; the team kept him on a strict pitch count. He didn’t play more than 20 snaps in a single game. In 2023, things will be drastically different.
Last season, the Lions traded away an offensive weapon in TE TJ Hockenson. Also, starting vertical route WR DJ Chark just had his contract voided with by the team. With all the defensive attention going to be toward Amon-Ra St Brown, Jameson will have the entire field to himself against single coverage. Williams will likely have a similar role/responsibility as DJ Chark.
In seven games where DJ Chark received over 70% of snaps, he either scored a TD or had 90-plus yards receiving in five of those games. Jameson Williams’ floor is as an inconsistent WR3 in fantasy football (top 36). I’m trading for him as if I view him as an inconsistent WR4 (top 36) or something less than that. That’s why he’s a buy-low candidate to me.
#Lions WRs coach Antwaan Randle El crashed the team's draft room when they traded up for Jameson Williams.
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) June 16, 2022
Reporters asked him about that moment and he had no idea they released the video.
"Oh, they showed that?" 😂
(via @Lions TikTok)pic.twitter.com/bEBMVwNrrM
Jake Ferguson, TE, Cowboys
It’s likely that the Cowboys will not franchise-tag or sign Dalton Schultz to an extension. The Cowboys have two RB contracts, Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott, to deal with. Additionally, Dallas is $7M over the cap.
Ferguson flashed clear ability as a rookie, catching 20 of the 23 passes for 208 yards and two touchdowns. His play as a pass-catcher has given the Cowboys an option to go with the cheaper TE.
According to PFF, Ferguson’s receiving grade was 75.2 compared to Dalton Schultz’s grade of 67.8. Granted, Ferguson didn’t grade well as a blocker, but I’m banking on the Wisconsin pedigree of prioritizing blocking. Also, in Ferguson’s last season playing for Wisconsin, he ranked 20th overall in run blocking out of an eligible 264 TEs.
In my fantasy football leagues, looking to trade two 4th round picks and a player for Jake Ferguson.
Jake Ferguson with the MOVES pic.twitter.com/CICoJognnx
— Dallas Texas TV (@DallasTexasTV) October 17, 2022
Ty Chandler, RB, Vikings
To be honest, we are taking a risk trying to trade for Ty Chandler. There’s a decent shot that the Vikings will draft another RB this year. However, if we deal for Ty Chandler now while his value is low and the Vikings neglect the RB position in the draft, then we hit the minor jackpot. In fantasy football, I love trading for handcuff RBs where they can start or receive a large share of snaps due to subpar performance from the starting RB, not just due to injury.
Dalvin Cook is the current starting RB and has graded out as the 42nd overall RB out of 60 eligible RBs, per PFF. Yes, Dalvin Cook has a massive contract with the Vikings; however, the GM and HC that gave him that contract are no longer employed by the team. Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, current Vikings’ GM, and Kevin O’Connell, current HC, have zero loyalty to Dalvin Cook. It is weird to say, but they are more invested in their 2022 5th-round draft pick than their high-priced RB, emotionally speaking.
Also, Alexander Mattison will be a free agent. This places Ty Chandler in a prime position to become the backup RB. There’s a reasonable expectation that Ty Chandler will become part of a timeshare with Dalvin Cook if the latter continues his downward trend with his performance.
Remember these 40 times before the 2023 Combine:
— Zareh Kantzabedian (@ZKantzFF) February 21, 2023
Pierre Strong Jr: 4:37 (Round 4 DC. 41 offensive snaps)
Isiah Pacheco: 4:37 (Round 7 DC. 49th in PPG)
Ty Chandler: 4:38 (Round 5 DC. Injury year)
D'Vonte Price: 4.38 (UDFA)
Zamir White: 4:40 (4th round DC. 35 offensive snaps)
Elijah Moore, WR, Jets
Trust the person – three key factors contributed to Elijah Moore’s sophomore slump; Garrett Wilson, QB, and OC. Two of the factors should no longer be an issue. The Jets are in the process of improving the QB position, which should be a relatively easy task. Zach Wilson set the bar low. Also, the Jets have already replaced their OC with Nathaniel Hackett. Hackett is a lateral change, at the very least. It is doubtful he’s is a downgrade from Mike Lafleur because, yet again, the Jets’ offense set the bar low. Garrett Wilson is the only issue, but it will not be an issue if the Jets sign Derek Carr or Aaron Rodgers. The majority of QBs can make at least two pass-catchers relevant in fantasy football.
I’ve conducted a few 2023 rookie drafts, and there’s a considerable dropoff between rounds 2 and 3. Look to trade two late-round draft picks for Elijah Moore. I’d much rather draft 22-year-old Mr. Moore twice over the 3rd round talent available this year.
Rashid Shaheed, WR, Saints
I’m betting on the talent. Yes, the talent. Undrafted Free Agents can get lost in the draft process for various reasons. See Adam Thielen as a template.
Rashid Shaheed is versatile and simply an explosive WR. At the very least, I expect Mr. Shaheed to produce high-end WR4 numbers in fantasy football. Per PFF, Shaheed’s rate of getting open vs. single-man coverage was 33.3%, higher than Christian Watson, Jahan Dotson, and George Pickens.
Highest Yards Per Route Run Rookie WR Seasons Since 2013
— Sam Sherman (@Sherman_FFB) February 19, 2023
1. OBJ (2.75 YPRR)
2. J. Jefferson (2.66)
3. Rashid Shaheed (2.59) ⁉️🔥⁉️
4. Martavis Bryant (2.51)
5. Ja'Marr Chase (2.44)
6. Chris Olave (2.42) 🔥
7. AJB (2.42)
8. C. Watson (2.26) 🔥
9. Tyreek (2.18)
10. K. Allen (2.16)
Rashid Shaheed is good at football pic.twitter.com/bPEiGeYIQ3
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) February 23, 2023
John Metchie, WR, Texans
John Metchie could not play his rookie season due to being diagnosed with Leukemia. The Alabama prospect was drafted in the 2nd round of the 2022 NFL Draft. In Metchie’s last season with Alabama, he accumulated 96 receptions, 1142 yards, and 8 TDs with Bryce Young as his QB and Bill O’Brien as his play caller.
The Texans have the 2nd overall pick in this year’s draft and their choice between Bryce Young or CJ Stroud. Both QBs are great options. CJ Stroud isn’t a downgrade from Bryce Young; he’s either the same, or better.
Furthermore, the Texans signed Bobby Slowik to be their new offensive play caller. Last season, Bobby Slowik was the passing game coordinator for the 49ers. Slowik will implement a similar offense that Metchie flourished in at Alabama.
Mr. Metchie has a sneaky opportunity to produce fantasy football numbers like Keenan Allen in his prime. Brandin Cooks is on his way out, and Nico Collins is Just A Guy (JAG) at best. The worst-case scenario is the Texans find another weapon for their new rookie QB. That would still allow Metchie to be fantasy relevant, at least a low-end WR3 production.
John Metchie has great tape. Elite route tree gets open all over the field. Argument that he’d be a 1st rd pick if not for the ACL injury late in 2021.
— Fantasy Football Commish (@AskTheFFC) April 24, 2022
If he recovers 💯 Metchie will be a steal pic.twitter.com/4QWmFTCTV1
Jonathan Taylor, RB, Colts
I’m hoping and banking on the JT manager to be annoyed with JT. I’ll be right there to comfort them. I’m a man of the people, no big deal. The main reason JT is bouncing back is the GM, Chris Ballard. In one of his press conferences, he recognized his fault in reaching for pass-catching talent and neglecting the OL.
#Colts GM Chris Ballard to reporters during tonight's news conference:
— Doug Kyed (@DougKyed) November 8, 2022
"Y'all been kicking the shit out of me for not drafting wideouts and now we're underperforming on the offensive line."
Chris Ballard doesn’t take responsibility for his fault but blames the media for their offensive line woes. Lack of accountability and self-awareness are lacking in 53-year-old Chris Ballard, but he’s giving us a clue about what he will focus on in Free Agency and the Draft; the trenches. This is an excellent thing for JT.
Taylor’s running style relies more on dominant OL play than other elite fantasy football RBs. For comparison, in the 2021 season, where JT was the overall RB1, his OL ranked 7th in adjusted line yards per carry. In 2022, the Colts’ OL ranked 22nd, per Football Outsiders.
Trade for JT as if he’s a future RB2 or less, and expect his RB1 numbers to return.
Conclusion
In Fantasy Football Dynasty, we try our best with “Living in the Future.” It is all about taking calculated risks. One way to risk without hurting your roster is to go after players with perceived limited upside and give up a lot more than what the other manager expected, knowing dang well that certain players’ value have a chance to skyrocket. I hope I was helpful in that regard, identifying actual low-value targets.
If you have any questions regarding my comments, please don’t hesitate to contact me on Twitter. Thank you for your time and support, and have a good day.
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