July and August are some of the best times of the year for an avid fantasy football player. Beat reporters are setting timelines on fire with roster news, folks are staking claims on “their guys,” and the sounds of pads on the field and cheers in stands are so, so close. However, sometimes a preseason injury casts a dark cloud on a time that is abounding with hopes and optimism for the season to come.
On Tuesday morning Tom Pelissero tweeted that Los Angeles Rams running back Cam Akers tore his Achilles tendon working out on Monday. Absolutely gutting news for a promising running back who was seen as a potential RB1 in both dynasty and redraft formats.
Achilles Tear Precedent
Projecting Cam Akers’ future is incredibly difficult. After a blistering finish to the 2020 season, fantasy football analysts projected a massive year for the sophomore running back. According to DLF, Akers’ dynasty ADP was 10.33, up from 30.5 this time last year. Going forward, that ADP is going to absolutely plummet.
The best comparison for Cam Akers is D’Onta Foreman. Foreman came into the 2017 NFL Draft as the reigning Doak Walker award winner and a highly-touted prospect. He was drafted in the third round by the Houston Texans at #89 overall. Similar to Akers, Foreman got off to a slow start in his rookie season but started to show signs of life toward the end of 2017. Foreman’s banner game was week eleven against the Cardinals. He rushed for 65 yards and two touchdowns on 10 carries and chipped in with three receptions for 15 yards. However, on the last play of his afternoon, he went down with a non-contact injury which ended up being diagnosed as a torn Achilles tendon.
As you are aware, Foreman has yet to return to form. In seven appearances since his Achilles tear, Foreman has totaled 30 carries for 97 yards. There isn’t a single running back that has returned to their prior form since suffering a torn Achilles tendon. That used to be the case for wide receivers as well, until recently. Michael Crabtree and Demariyus Thomas have both bucked the trend and returned to be productive after a torn Achilles, and there is no reason that Akers can’t do the same.
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What to Expect?
In my opinion, it will be at least 2023 until we can expect Akers to be a startable fantasy football asset again. An Achilles tear used to be a death-knell for NFL players, but as I said, players have begun to buck that trend. No matter what though, it is a multi-year injury to get back to a similar physical shape.
If I’m an Akers owner in dynasty with a window to win in the next two years, I’m selling for whatever I can get. It is incredibly likely that Akers never returns to his pre-injury stature, and there may be an owner in your league that is willing to take a risk on his health. I don’t think it is ever wise to bet on someone being an outlier if you have a championship-ready roster. If Akers returns to his second half of 2020 form (which I truly hope he does), then kudos to the owner that you sold him to. In my opinion, it’s a safe bet that he will never be the same.
However, if you have a roster with a slew of future picks and are hoping to contend in 2023 and later down the road, I think Akers is worth gambling on. I would trade an aging player that still has some win-now value (think Marvin Jones, Latavius Murray, T.Y Hilton) to take a swing on Akers.
It always sucks to see a promising talent go down with an injury that will alter the rest of his career. We definitely wish Akers the best and I hope that he can come back and make an impact on an NFL roster as soon as possible.
