The Chicago Bears made an excellent trade on Friday, sending the 1st overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft to the Carolina Panthers. In return, Chicago received the 9th and 61st overall selections in the ’23 draft, a ’24 1st, a ’25 2nd, and elite WR DJ Moore. The trade has put Justin Fields in a make-or-break situation for the upcoming season whether people want to admit it or not. If Justin Fields isn’t able to improve as a passer, not only will it be a detriment for fantasy football managers, but it could jeopardize Fields’ future with the Bears.
Justin Fields Must Develop as a Passer
Coming out of Ohio State, I personally was a big fan of Justin Fields. I thought he could make all of the throws needed to be an elite NFL quarterback. He had the vision, accuracy, and the athletecism that very few prospects have. In short, he was my QB1 of the ’21 NFL Draft.
It's Draft Day! Just a reminder that Justin Fields is the QB1.
— Thomas Christopher (@ThomasCP_NFL) April 29, 2021
After a rookie season that had plenty of ups and downs, I was bullish on Fields’ 2022 season. I expected him to take a jump in his passing – as he was one of the worst passers in 2021. What I did not expect – at all – was that Fields would fall just short of breaking Lamar Jackson’s single-season rushing record by a quarterback. Fields was never a run-first quarterback. This showed a ceiling on the young QB that had him touted as the QB1 of the ’21 by many, myself included. The only problem Fields had, is the worst problem to have as a quarterback – the inability to be a consistent passer in the NFL.
It’s obvious that as of right now, Justin Fields is a great quarterback for fantasy football. But if he doesn’t develop as a passer, not only will it hinder him going forward, but it will hinder every player on the Bears offense. And I don’t think people realize just how bad it is right now.
Justin Fields was the QB5 in fantasy last year, but his passing still left a lot to be desired.
What would you like to see the Bears do to help him fix that? pic.twitter.com/hz87Rrrqdn
— The Fantasy Sanctuary (@TheFFSanctuary) March 8, 2023
The tweet above shows how dynamic Fields can be in fantasy football. It also shows how bad he was as a passer in 2022.
Since 2021, Justin Fields has the 4th-worst EPA/Play among quarterbacks at -0.034 (min. 320 plays). He’s only ahead of is Zach Wilson, Sam Darnold, and Davis Mills. He also has the 7th-worst CPOE since 2021 at -2.2.
Fields had the 5th-highest air yards in 2022, but had the lowest percentage of aggressive throws in the NFL. Essentially that means when he’s throwing deep, it’s because there’s a coverage breakdown or a player is wide open. It’s getting hard to blame his passing struggles on the offensive line at this point, too.
In 2022, the Bears OL graded as the second-best unit in pass block win rate, only behind the Kansas City Chiefs. They also were a top-5 unit in run block win rate as well. The Bears are likely to shore up the OL this offseason as well, leaving the burden of success on the shoulders of Justin Fields.
A Real Receiving Core
A reason to defend Fields’ passing woes has been his lack of receiving help. In 2021, Fields truly only had Darnell Mooney. Cole Kmet was still only in his second year, and Allen Robinson all but checked out with the Bears. In 2022 he had an oft-injured Mooney, an improved Kmet, and half a season of Chase Claypool. This year is different, however.
With the Bears acquiring DJ Moore, it gives Justin Fields another dynamic receiving option. Fields now has four pass-catchers that not only proved they can succeed in the NFL, but can put up big fantasy numbers, too.
- Darnell Mooney was the WR23 in PPR leagues in 2021 with Fields
- Cole Kmet was the TE7 in 2022 with Fields
- Chase Claypool was the WR24 in PPR leagues in 2020, and finished as a WR3 in 2021
- DJ Moore has been a top-24 WR in PPR leagues since 2019
For fantasy football, every pass-catcher not named Cole Kmet currently sees a downtick in value until proven otherwise. Mooney and Claypool are unlikely to see a return to WR2 status, while DJ Moore should continue his yearly production.
In 2023, Justin Fields has a chance to change the narrative surrounding his play as a quarterback. The Chicago Bears have the chance to be a gold mine for fantasy football this season. They could also be a team full of fantasy busts – like the 2022 Denver Broncos. The burden will be great, but if we’re to expect success for this team, it hinges on Justin Fields developing as a passer in 2023.
