Bonjour, Mesdames et Messieurs! I came away surprised the Keen Observer Posse (KOP) Scouting Profile has CJ Stroud as a better QB prospect than ‘generational talent‘ Trevor Lawrence. The KOP will explain, in considerable detail, why they believe C.J. Stroud is a better QB prospect than Trevor Lawrence and will also have a more successful career.
KOP Notes & Observations
The first thing that jumps off of Mr. Stroud’s film is he accurately gets the ball out on time. Additionally, he makes the correct decision/reads on practically every play. From a statistical standpoint, 33.6% of Stroud’s attempts past the line of scrimmage were deemed perfectly placed — the highest rate in the draft class. He had a 75.8% adjusted completion percentage for his career and a 2.76-second average time to throw.
Another great attribute Stroud has is the preponderance to avoid sacks, unlike Justin Fields, the Ohio State QB he replaced. Stroud’s 11.5% career pressure-to-sack conversion rate was half of Fields’ at Ohio State (23.6%). That’s only a few statistics to break down his elite traits. What did the film tell the KOP?
T.J. Houshmandzadeh trains both Bryce Young & CJ Stroud
Stroud’s Film
I’d decided to start with the Ohio State and Michigan game first, because CJ Stroud received a ton of negative feedback from pundits. I wanted to determine if their assessments on Stroud were accurate, or if they were standing too close to the elephant. I came blown away watching CJ Stroud in the Ohio State vs. Michigan game.
We saw the whole gamut of throws – touch, layered, velocity, deep, etc. It’s nearly impossible to remember a time when he made the wrong decision. Stroud gets rid of the ball with great timing and anticipation. He knows where to go with the ball, not just based on their play, but also the post-snap read the defense provided.
My only issue with CJ Stroud was his unwillingness to use his legs for rushing yards. He played outside the structure, but it was mostly to buy time for his pass-catchers. The trust of his coaching staff and teammates to get open held the offense back just a smidge. His faith keeps the team from scoring on one possession per game on average.
Michigan Coaches vs. Ohio State Coaches
After watching the Ohio State and Michigan game, KOP concluded that the offensive struggle was Ryan Day being outcoached by Jim Harbaugh.
Harbaugh’s foundational approach was to limit the big plays in the Ohio State passing game. On play-action plays, Michigan LBs would bail out for the pass instead of biting on the run fake. Additionally, Michigan’s zone coverage played much deeper in their drops than usual, forcing Ohio State to play the short passing game; the goal for Michigan was to keep everything in front of them and force Ohio State to run the ball.
I found Michigan’s defensive game plan interesting: their DBs beat Ohio State WRs to the spot. Far too often, it seemed like Michigan knew the play that Ohio State was running. Jim Harbaugh and his coaching staff were able to pick up on some clues where they could predict several plays. I saw the Michigan DBs jump the play/route at least twice on each possession.
This is a big deal when Ohio State’s defense gives up over 40 points. Those couple plays on each possession force Ohio State to FGs or punts. That led to them scoring 23 points, which is a sound output in most cases. A simple analysis is that the pundits were standing too close to the elephant. Their evaluation was based on the result rather than the why or how.
Notre Dame Game Notes
The second game film I watched was Ohio State vs Notre Dame. Mr. Stroud’s pocket presence was beautiful; no, it was poetry in motion. Ohio State only scored 21 against Notre Dame, but I was in awe watching Stroud play; in the same way that someone can get stuck when they see a person they find beautiful. I couldn’t stop staring. All I could do was shake my head and say damn.
C.J. Stroud didn't have the best game of his young career last night vs Notre Dame, but plays like this are a reminder of how talented he is.
— luca (@thegattiluca) September 4, 2022
Stroud's best attribute is his throwing touch, which he's able to maintain even when scrambling.
Special throw from a special player. pic.twitter.com/dmENuDUfmM
The most significant attribute overlooked when evaluating QBs is their ability to read deep-to-short or short-to-deep. The latter substantially contributes to a quarterback’s lack of success if they make a habit of missing out on chunk plays.
CJ Stroud fell into that trap several times in the Notre Dame game. Twice, he looked short first instead of looking deep to short. He lost out on two scoring opportunities settling for the quick option.
Georgia Game Notes
The College Football Playoff game against Georgia is the type of player CJ Stroud needs to be; a willing runner and a more decisive runner. If he continues this approach, he will overcome bad OL, coaching, and weapons – the full Monty. This is the primary way I evaluate a QB. I ask myself, what can a QB overcome? His decisiveness leads to a game-winning FG attempt against arguably the best defense in the country.
CJ Stroud vs Trevor Lawrence
I understand this take seems controversial, clickbait-y, or a hot take. Trust me, that isn’t the objective. I’m challenging the ‘generational talent’ tag Trevor Lawrence has received. It is unwarranted, and the generational label is a controversial take.
We spoke the generational label on Trevor Lawrence into existence because of his physical gifts as a True Freshman. Once we started seeing the cracks in his armor, we just wanted to ignore the signs. Why? Because, as a society, we need to be right instead of trying to get it right. Mind you, I was one of those individuals who believed Trevor Lawrence would be the next Andrew Luck and John Elway. But, I changed my mind after receiving new information in his Sophomore and Junior seasons.
Areas Where Trevor Fell Short (As a Prospect)
- QB Responsibility
Trevor Lawrence’s play-by-play was reduced to screens, RPOs, and Read Options. It was odd that a QB in the same system for three years never evolved his game. This was a clear indication of a coaching staff lacking trust in Trevor. I will always remember that: Clemson kept calling play-action in obvious passing situations in his second matchup against Ohio State, in a game where Ohio State won convincingly. Again, this was a sign he needed help with full-field reads. Coaches tell you who a QB is by how they call the game, Believe them.
- Accuracy
It was consistent to see Mr. Lawrence missing layups, aka simple throws, mainly due to his need to over-stride when throwing.
Why Stroud over Trevor
Remember, this is a comparison between the two as QB prospects.
In every aspect of the QB position, CJ Stroud can match Trevor Lawrence or do it better.
Accuracy
Stroud is the winner in a big way—no need to elaborate.
Pocket Manipulation & Awareness
Mr. Stroud has the edge again. Lawrence played with anxiousness to get rid of the ball too quickly. He always seemed uncomfortable in the pocket.
Post Snap / Post Snap Responsibility
CJ Stroud wins in a landslide. Trevor had minimal pre-snap freedom (OL calls, audibles). Trevor flourished in an 11 vs. 11 style offense, where every play was geared towards the defense defending the run; RPO, Read Options, screens, and play action.
Specifically, Trevor Lawrence threw to his first read over 80% of the time in his last season with Clemson. As for CJ Stroud, he was responsible for everything (OL blocking, Audibles), including entire field reads. Mr. Stroud can and has played well in all offensive schemes; modern-day West Coast (timing & anticipation), Vertical, and RPOs.
PFF Grade on throws past 1st read since 2019: (min. 60 attempts)
— PFF (@PFF) April 2, 2021
1st – Justin Fields – 90.6
2nd – Zach Wilson – 90.1
3rd – Trey Lance – 87.2
…
7th – Trevor Lawrence – 78.6
8th – Mac Jones – 75.7 pic.twitter.com/CEWpY86rwC
Physical Attributes
Both are very similar. Most people automatically assume that Trevor Lawrence has elite arm strength due to his size, but it isn’t exactly an accurate assumption. Like Sam Darnold, Mr. Lawrence has elite zip/velocity on his throws, but his throwing distance could be improved. Trevor loses his velocity when throwing the ball deep, and the ball dies around 50 yards.
The farthest career throw from C.J. Stroud
— Mike Renner (@PFF_Mike) January 17, 2023
~ 58 yards
(2021 vs. Purdue) pic.twitter.com/ri9WdYlCrh
The farthest career throw from Trevor Lawrence
— Mike Renner (@PFF_Mike) February 8, 2021
~58 yards
(2020 vs. The Citadel, Q1 9:57) pic.twitter.com/AV8QuiU6ZX
Both didn’t test at the Combine. So, I must use the eye test to decide who is better.
Straight Line Speed
On this, I must give a slight edge to Trevor.
Agility, Wiggle, Lateral Movement, Elusive
For these attributes, I give a slight edge to CJ Stroud.
Tale of the Tape:
Career Statistics on Drop backs (no screens, no Play Actions)
| Trevor Lawrence | C.J. Stroud | |
| Passing Grade | 78.2 | 88.3 |
| YPA | 8.2 | 8.6 |
| ADOT | 6.8 | 9.9 |
| Adj Comp | 81.5% | 71.2% |
| Turnover Worthy Play % | 3.3% | 2.9% |
| Big Time Throw % | 5.3% | 7.1% |
| Time to Throw Avg | 2.21 | 2.81 |
| NFL Passer Rating | 106.3 | 115.9 |
Passing Grades in Bowl Games
| Trevor Lawrence | C.J. Stroud | ||
| vs. Ohio State (2020) | 63.5 | vs. Georgia (2022) | 91.9 |
| vs. Ohio State (2019) | 58.8 | vs. Utah (2021) | 88 |
| vs. LSU (2019) | 66.5 | ||
| vs. Alabama (2018) | 75.2 | ||
| vs. Notre Dame (2018) | 92.3 |
Stylistic Comparison – Justin Herbert
It is uncanny. For most of their college career, both CJ Stroud and Justin Herbert trusted coaching and teammates a little too much, which kept them from maximizing every possession. In the College Playoff game against Georgia, Stroud found the perfect mixture of trust and taking matters into his own hands, just as Justin Herbert did in the Pac-12 Championship and Rose Bowl.
Both players became more decisive and willing runners when the play broke down. We hope CJ doesn’t fall into the same trap Justin Herbert did while playing in the pros.
Many experts, fans, and media personalities believe Justin Herbert needs to throw the ball deep more, but I disagree; he needs to be more of a runner instead of forcing more low-percentage throws.
CJ Stroud 2023 NFL Draft Grade – 1st Overall
The main attribute a coach cares about is trust. Coaches will trust Stroud and will love to coach him. He is elite playing within structure and outside of it. Additionally, he can uplift good coaching. Furthermore, he can overcome bad OL, weapons, and coaching when he’s a decisive runner. Trust will be his detriment if he’s faced with lousy coaching and reverts to ‘regular season’ CJ Stroud.
If Stroud can play how he did against Georgia, and he will be another elite QB as Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and others.
Team Fit
Any Team. Stroud is scheme-proof. He fits in any system and will excel in any style—Kyle Shanahan of QBs.
Conclusion
My goal isn’t to be clickbait. My goal is to get to the truth or get to it right. The KOP is confused why C.J. Stroud isn’t viewed as the same, if not a better, prospect than Trevor Lawrence. At the very least, there should be a discussion. It shouldn’t be dismissed as if a person is insane.
As always, I hope I was intriguing and helpful. Thank you for your time. Time is the best gift you can give someone, so I truly appreciate you reading my article.
If you have any questions regarding my comments, please don’t hesitate to contact me on Twitter. Stay with us at The League Winners for more fantasy news, or find us on Twitter. Thank you for your time and support, and have a good day.
