Last week in the NCAA, we had one team playing for their College Football Playoff (CFP) lives and came up incredibly with an uninspired performance at home. Meanwhile, an unbeaten team barely kept their perfect season alive despite a controversial call during their game-winning drive. Plus, a big game in the SEC between two top-12 teams vying for a chance in the SEC title game. We’ll go inside the numbers to explain how one former unbeaten squad may have played themselves out of the CFP after their first loss of the season.
College Football Week 11 Recap of LSU and Alabama
Entering last Saturday, both teams needed this win badly. Alabama’s third loss in the SEC likely meant they would lose their spot in the CFP, and you could sense Alabama’s desperation with their intensity in the trenches.
The Crimson Tide rushing attack deflated the LSU defense; and their home crowd’s energy was sapped out of the building for Brian Kelly’s team by Jalen Milroe and the Alabama running game. From early in the contest, you could see how Alabama would force the ball down in close quarters on LSU’s defense. Justice Haynes ground out tough runs in short yardage, including a terrific second effort on a 1-yard touchdown in the first quarter to give Alabama a 14-3 lead.
For Garrett Nussmeier, he never got comfortable against Alabama’s pass rush and was under pressure the entire night. He also didn’t help himself with costly turnovers. That includes a fumble before the half to set up Milroe and the Crimson Tide on a short field for a touchdown, giving Alabama a 21-6 lead right before the break. Nussmeier also threw an ill-advised interception in the end zone when LSU was on the verge of making it a one-score game.
Conversely, Milroe was terrific. Aided by a bruising performance from his offensive line, Milroe terrorized LSU on the ground with one explosive run after another. In all, the Alabama quarterback had 185 yards rushing with four touchdowns, including a 72-yard score to put the game out of reach.
Through the air, he was efficient when he needed to be. Alabama’s offensive and defensive units played a great game when they needed it and complimented each other very well. It was a great college football conference win on the road for the Tide.
Recap of the upset special BYU vs. Utah
The BYU Cougars survive by the skin of their teeth. Brandon Rose got the start for Utah instead of Isaac Wilson, which wasn’t of a surprise, considering Wilson has been dealing with injuries.
Rose got the first of his career after receiving a lot of praise from his coaches at practice in the weeks prior. You saw a bit of his mobility and could tell that his presence gave the Utes some energy. He made several good throws to Dorian Singer in the middle of the field.
In the first half, BYU rolled the dice on fourth down near midfield and came up short. Helped by a costly face mask penalty for BYU, Utah went 45 yards in 1:36, capped off by a Micah Bernard touchdown to go up by 11 into the half. It all came down to the final drive.
Many people are grumbling about the defensive holding penalty that extended the drive for BYU on 4th and 10, where Jake Retzlaff was sacked for an 8-yard loss. However, that’s the right call and unfortunately for Utah, BYU capitalized.
Retzlaff didn’t have a great day, but his 30-yard pass to Chase Roberts on that series to pull the Cougars into Utah territory was his best of the night. BYU kicker Will Ferrin makes the game-winner from 44 yards out, and BYU escapes Salt Lake City with a win and dodges the upset.
Why LSU hurt themselves the most
LSU needed to keep pace in the SEC to have an outside chance at the SEC college football title game, which was a long shot anyway. Their lingering hope was impressing the CFP committee by handling business, which started with Alabama last week. Now, after two consecutive SEC losses in as many weeks, you can begin to doubt them, and the CFP committee is thinking the same.
Last week was a de facto playoff game in a primetime slot, and they failed the test miserably. How they handled the run was disappointing, yet Milroe can do that to several defenses in the country. It’s really about how their offense had zero answers, and Nussmeier looked confused. His interception, in which he didn’t see the field correctly, may be symbolic to LSU, given how they played last week.
LSU failed to see the bigger picture and placed their playoff chances in the hands of others. When you look back at their schedule, they barely got away from South Carolina. Their loss to USC looks awful in retrospect. And, they might have the final nail in the coffin against Vanderbilt on November 23. They were ranked as high as No. 8 in the AP polls just a few weeks ago, and today are clinging on to a spot in the top-25. It’s a stark change of how quickly the tables have turned on LSU.
Saturday Spotlight Clemson vs. Pittsburgh
This week’s game versus Clemson and Pittsburgh has significant implications for the College Football Playoffs and the ACC. Forget matchups in this preview; let’s talk about numbers.
In the same way Alabama breathed new life into their season after last week, Clemson did the same by beating Virginia Tech – combined with Miami’s loss versus Georgia Tech. Miami fell to 5-1 in the ACC and has opened the door for Clemson to sneak into the ACC title game, which has also made a path for SMU.
SMU is undefeated in the ACC and has a shot to run the table in the conference. They are heavily favored to win in their three remaining ACC games against Boston College, Virginia, and California. At 8-0 in the conference, SMU punches its ticket in the ACC conference title game and could win it against either Miami or Clemson.
On the other hand, Miami made things difficult for themselves. It’s hard to picture how they get into the College Football Playoffs without an appearance in the ACC title game. Their remaining two games are against Syracuse and Wake Forest, leaving their resume slightly flat. They won games versus Louisville, Virginia Tech, and California by a total of 12 points.
Currently, Clemson’s conference opponents are 19-30 (38.77 win percentage in the ACC), and Miami’s conference opponents are 22-32 in the same scenario (40.74 win percentage). California could decide on this narrow margin who gets second place in the ACC and a spot in the conference title game.
The Golden Bears are 1-4 in the conference and play Stanford and Syracuse in addition to SMU. If they lose out, they could minimize Miami’s strength of schedule against conference opponents and take them out of the title game.
Should Clemson win against Pittsburgh, Miami’s Cinderella run led by Heisman favorite Cam Ward suddenly may turn into a pumpkin long before the clock midnight. You had better believe that the Hurricanes will be on pins and needles watching the outcome of this game. Otherwise, all Miami has to do is win out, and they control their own CFP destiny.
Upset special: Georgia over Tennessee
Looking at this week’s games, it’s tough to pick a game where a team realistically has a chance to sneak up on a good opponent. Alabama plays Mercer, and Ohio State and Penn State are 28.5-point favorites in their respective games. The best candidate for an upset appears to be Georgia over Tennessee, but it’s not feeling so much as an organic upset, and it comes with some explanation.
Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava is likely to miss the game with a concussion. There’s been conflicting reports all week on his status. However, you’d expect Tennessee to protect their quarterback and play it cautiously.
Gaston Moore is the likely starter in Iamaleava’s place. Although there’s confidence he can handle it based on how he played in their win over Mississippi State, it puts more on Dylan Sampson to carry the load offensively. Moore will have to find a way to drive the ball down the field with Dont’e Thornton and Squirrel White.
Carson Beck and Georgia get the gift of playing a less dynamic Tennessee offense. It’ll be on James Pearce to create havoc and get Carson Beck to force himself into bad decisions. He has thrown five touchdowns to nine interceptions in his last four games.
That said, the home crowd in Athens will be on his side. Expect Georgia and Beck to get back on track from last week’s game versus Ole Miss. Arian Smith and Dominic Lovett have huge days and Georgia takes the “upset” over Tennessee.
