Three previews for the Week 12 college football games and our picks based on spreads for 12 games on the slate.
Iowa State vs (13) Oklahoma
Coming off of a season-changing 27-14 loss to Baylor on Saturday, Oklahoma returns to Norman in hopes of a bounce-back performance. After the loss, Oklahoma dropped to 12th in the AP poll, while Baylor moved ahead of them and into the 11th spot. Meanwhile, Iowa State (6-4) is currently unranked in college football. Despite having an advantage in skill-position talent, the Baylor/Oklahoma game was decided by a smothering effort from the Baylor defense. Baylor outgained Oklahoma by a margin of 413 total yards to 260.
Freshman quarterback Caleb Williams looked like a Freshman for the first time in Week 11. He completed 10 of 18 passes for 146 yards and zero touchdowns (with two interceptions). The running game fared little better, rushing for 78 yards on 28 attempts (2.8 yards per carry). RB Kennedy Brooks provided a small spark, rushing 13 times for 51 yards and a touchdown.
collAs disappointing as Saturday’s game was for Oklahoma, Iowa State has underperformed all season. They were 7th ranked team by the AP this preseason. They’ve now fallen completely out of the polls. Their four losses include:
- 27–17 loss to Iowa
- 31-29 road loss to Baylor
- 38-31 road loss to West Virginia
- 41-38 road loss to Texas Tech on Saturday
QB Brock Purdy has completed 218 of 297 pass attempts for 2441 yards and 15 TDs (with six interceptions) this college football season. Meanwhile, RB Breece Hall has amassed 1172 yards and 16 touchdowns on 216 carries. Hall has also added 31 catches for 246 yards and two touchdowns. In addition to Hall’s work in the passing game, WR Xavier Hutchinson (68 catches for 798 yards and six touchdowns) and TE Charlie Kolar (41 catches for 506 yards and four touchdowns) lead the way.
Devy Players to Watch
- Marvin Mims– WR- Oklahoma: Mims leads the team in receiving yards with 622. He has four touchdowns on his 28 receptions. Mims (‘23 class), was ranked as the WR8 in preseason Devy rankings.
- Mario Williams – WR- Oklahoma: As part of a very deep receiving corps, Williams (‘24 class) has registered 29 catches for 319 yards and three touchdowns. He was the WR31 in preseason rankings.
- Charlie Kolar – TE- Iowa State: Although a good prospect, Kolar is a testament to the fact that there is not a bevy of talented tight ends on the way to the NFL to offset the lack of depth currently there now. Over the last three years, Kolar (‘22 class) has amassed 136 catches for 1794 yards and 18 touchdowns. He was the TE6 in preseason rankings.
Oklahoma -7.5
- Brandon @hayeb3: Iowa State +7.5
- Brian @vandygrad92: Oklahoma -7.5
- Joe @TheHQNerd: Oklahoma -7.5
(10) Wake Forest vs Clemson
This is a strange thing to see; in this matchup Clemson is the favorite to win, but is not the top-10 team in college football. Wake Forest only has one loss to North Carolina. With the way scheduling is, that did not count as a conference loss. Clemson has slim chances to still win the Atlantic and that starts with a must-win against the Demon Deacons on Saturday.
Wake Forest is a heavy passing team. They are 18th in college football with over 36 pass attempts per game. Quarterback Sam Hartman leads the offense. They run a unique scheme where there is a lot of RPO, and Hartman plays out the run fake until the very end, only to pull and throw downfield.
The offense has to carry the team as their defense is very poor. Their defense is giving up over 40 points in three of the last four and over 30 points per game for the season. The last couple games, the Wake Forest offense has had some costly turnovers. They will need to avoid that against a very good Clemson Defense.
Clemson on the other hand is the opposite. Their defense is top-8 in college football, only giving up 17 points per game. Clemon’s offense is 104th, only scoring 21 points per game. This is a different Clemson team we are seeing from the past few years with Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence. DJ Uiagalelei has been playing better the past few games, but the passing offense is still underwhelming.
This game will be a true test of how broken the Clemson offense is, because Wake Forest has given up points to everyone. The key to this game will be how the Clemson defense slows down Wake Forest’s offense, as I do not think Clemson can win in a track meet.
Devy Players to Watch
- Jaquarii Roberson– WR – Wake Forest: Roberson was very productive in 2020 with 62 catches for 926 yards and 8 TDs. He’s putting up another stellar season in 2021. He is one of Sam Hartman‘s favorite targets and already has four games with over 100 yards. He’s already moving up draft boards to a higher Day 3 pick.
- Will Shipley– RB – Clemson: Shipley was the #2 RB and a top-32 prospect coming into Clemson. He’s had an up and down season that has been interrupted by injuries. Shipley only has one game over 100 rushing yards, but has become the main back for Clemson, averaging over 4.5 yards per carry and 7 TDS on the season. He only has 10 receptions on the year but is more than capable of being a bigger receiving threat for the offense.
Clemson -3
- Brandon @hayeb3: Wake Forest +3
- Brian @vandygrad92: Wake Forest +3
- Joe @TheHQNerd: Wake Forest +3
(7) Michigan State vs (4) Ohio State
9-1 Michigan State travels to 9-1 Ohio State this week with the upper hand of the Big Ten East on the line. A win for either team gets them closer to the Big 10 Championship game as well as staying in the hunt for a Collge Football Playoff birth.
The Spartans are led on offense by quarterback Payton Thorne. Thorne has been solid for Mel Tucker’s unit this year, totaling 24 touchdowns to 8 interceptions while completing 63 percent of his passes. Jayden Reed is Thorne’s top target on the season. The exciting speedster has hauled in 45 receptions for 829 yards and seven touchdowns. The Spartans offense runs through running back Kenneth Walker, pacing as a Heisman Trophy frontrunner. Walker leads the nation in rushing yards (1483), accounting for 18 total touchdowns.
Everything is clicking for Ohio State on offense, and at the right time. CJ Stroud is making his own Heisman Trophy push. Stroud has thrown for over 3,000 yards in ten games for 30 touchdowns. He has a trio of fantastic receivers to lean on in Garrett Wilson (53/813/9), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (59/1027/5), and Chris Olave (51/708/11).
The Buckeyes boast one of the best young running backs in college football with TreyVeon Henderson. Henderson has rushed for over 1,000 yards on the season, averaging 7.3 yards per carry. Michigan State strolls into the “Shoe” as 19 point underdogs, which speaks to just how good Ohio State has looked lately. All eyes will be on the running back matchup and who can find the early edge, but the quarterbacks will define the outcome. Payton Thorne will have to play the game of his life for Sparty to pull off the upset in Columbus.
Players to Watch
- Kenneth Walker– RB- Michigan State: Kenneth Walker has been simply sensational transferring in from Wake Forest this season. Walker has risen into the top three conversations for running backs in the 2022 draft-eligible class. He displays solid cutback ability and lateral agility—a strong runner with good size (5’10 210). Walker lacks high-end receiving work out of the backfield. Despite that, Kenneth Walker has had a meteoric rise this season.
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba – WR – Ohio State: Jaxon Smith-Njigba is showing the nation why he was such a highly-touted five-star recruit as a freshman last year. He’s simply balling out as a sophomore. To be leading a wide receiver group this talented in his second year is the definition of a true breakout. JSN is one of the most coveted devy assets at the wide receiver position.
Ohio State -17.5
- Brandon @hayeb3: Ohio State-17.5
- Brian @vandygrad92: Ohio State-17.5
- Joe @TheHQNerd: Michigan State +17.5
Other College Football Game Picks Based on the Spread
Brandon Haye
Brandon grew up in Jacksonville, Florida and works as a health insurance data analyst. He has no children, but two fur babies - Squirt and Brownie. He and his wife, Katie, spend their time playing poker and enjoying time with their pups. Brandon is a huge Michigan Wolverine and Jacksonville Jaguars fan. He at one time was in 77 fantasy leagues and loves the game of football. Brandon started writing for The Leauge Winners in 2021.