We take a look at Chicago Bears’ WR Darnell Mooney and his outlook for fantasy football going forward.
Darnell Mooney was a surprising revelation in 2020. Selected in the 5th round of the NFL Draft, expectations were low. He went undrafted in many fantasy football leagues, but the owners who held on to him prior to the season are excited for the future of the WR from Tulane. Now let’s break the player down.
Reviewing the stats and film
Mooney ended the 2020 season with 98 targets, 61 catches, for 631 yards and four touchdowns. For fantasy football purposes, he finished as the W50 in PPR leagues, but it could’ve been better.
The Chicago Bears went through two quarterback changes (Nick Foles and Mitchell Trubisky) throughout the course of the season. Both of them had a hard time getting Mooney the ball, through no fault of his own. According to PFF, Mooney had the second-least amount of catchable balls thrown his way on deep passes, to go along with the second-worst reception percentage (minimum 20 deep passing targets, and only behind A.J. Green).
Free Darnell Mooney pic.twitter.com/HZIaXwiUYm
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) October 28, 2020
(Yes, that’s him putting elite cornerback Jalen Ramsey on skates). The only player who had it worse than Mooney was Bengals’ WR A.J. Green. Unlike Green, Mooney was T-14th in separation among all WRs with at least 70 targets (Green was ranked last). He also was fourth in unrealized air yards going into the start of December.
Darnell Mooney's catchable target rate is 67.7% ranked 99th among other WRs.
He's also 4th in unrealized Air Yards with 612.Buy him before the Bears draft a QB. https://t.co/OcjuVOb8Xk
— Jay (@JayyyG_FF) December 3, 2020
Despite being primarily known as a speedster, he’s shown more than that in his short career. His 17 avoided tackles were fourth among all wide receivers in the NFL this season. That’s on par with some of the most elite players at the position. This isn’t a new thing either, as he’s been quite elusive dating back to college.
HOUSE CALL!@GreenWaveFB's Darnell Mooney with the 52-yard TD! pic.twitter.com/Eq7ZjfFG7R
— CBS Sports Network (@CBSSportsNet) November 25, 2017
Another underrated aspect of Mooney’s game is his route running ability. You’ve already seen one example against Jalen Ramsey, but that barely scratches the surface. Here’s a route against Xavier Rhodes, who had the 10th highest coverage grade in 2020, per PFF (min. 500 snaps). Mooney gets Rhodes to fall for his first in-cut, allowing him to get outside. Rhodes recovers well, but Mooney makes a fantastic catch.
Darnell Mooney with the 🔥 route and catch @Darnell_M1 @ChicagoBears pic.twitter.com/r735MosgHC
— The Checkdown (@thecheckdown) October 4, 2020
Mooney aggressively attacks the football when he’s targeted and isn’t afraid to fight through contact to make the catch. He’s shown that despite having a low BMI (only 24.3) he’s capable of being one of the outliers to succeed. His slight frame doesn’t negate his ability to get through contact while his route running is crisp enough to beat even the best cornerbacks in the NFL. Mooney also does a great job tracking and high-pointing the ball. While many young wide receivers succumb to ‘alligator arms’, Mooney shows sufficient effort on every play. I understand that this is a highlight clip from college, but it points out everything I’ve explained (and what we’ve seen in the NFL as well) thus far.
5 Ronda Pick 173 en este #NFLDraft2020 los Chicago Bears seleccionan a Darnell Mooney, WR Tulane. @Darnell_M1 @GreenWaveFB
2572 Yardas, 16.7 AVG y 19 TD.
🐻⬇️ | #BearsDraft pic.twitter.com/lI60G9OLk5
— Chicago Bears España (@SpainBears) May 5, 2020
Fantasy Football Outlook
Darnell Mooney has a lot of skill and potential. The question is whether or not the Chicago Bears can find a quarterback who can get him the ball. Mooney had the 8th-worst Fantasy Point Differential among wide receivers with at least 70 targets. This stat essentially signifies bad quarterback play for wide receivers with low drop rates and high uncatcable ball rates (like Mooney). It’s interesting to note that his teammate, Anthony Miller, is also on this list with the 4th-worst PFD.
Mooney has proven that he can get open and be a dynamic threat in the Bears’ offense, but there’s a lot of variables going forward. Whether or not Allen Robinson leaves in free agency, Mooney’s role is likely to increase. The outlook is better with Robinson drawing more attention from defenses, but more opportunity would arise if he left. Mooney was only two targets shy of 100 despite starting nine games this year (though he played in all 16), and there’s little reason to think he won’t pass that mark in 2021.
The Bears are also currently looking for a new quarterback to start the 2021 season. The chances of Mooney receiving so many ‘uncatchable’ balls again are slim. I predict Mooney to go from a WR4/5, to a low-end WR2; to a high-end WR3 this upcoming year.
Right now his overall ADP is roughly 107 (106.5). That’s lower than players like Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Mike Williams, and Damien Harris. His trade value in many leagues right now is a 2021 2nd-round pick; which is a steal, in my opinion. If he’s available in your dynasty leagues I recommend going after him. His potential to be an elite fantasy football player is greater than his price tag; which makes the risk worth it. I currently own him in all of my fantasy football leagues and don’t plan on changing that with any new start-up going forward.
