To read the previous article in my “Days of the Offseason” installment, click here.
Age plays a big factor in fantasy football dynasty leagues. It decides when players will drop off in production and value. Knowing when to buy and sell players who are “older” can be tricky.
This, and understanding your leagues market go hand and hand. During the offseason, players over 27 seem to discounted. Players like Adam Thielen and Julio Jones have passed the age 30 threshold; where we see the steady decline in fantasy football production.
Julio Jones won’t be stopped. I get that he’s older and not the shiny new rookie, but it seems people have forgotten just how dominate Julio is. He’ll demand targets whether he stays in Atlanta or heads elsewhere. He’s the cheapest he’s going to be this year right now.
I believe Adam Thielen will regress next season. To me he’s not a buy, even though he’s discounted due to age. Thielen was a fantasy football rockstar last year, but did so catching 14 TDs – which means a regression is due. His TD numbers will drop; and with Justin Jefferson breaking out, it’s hard to see Thielen posting WR1 numbers year in and year out. Thielen is a hold for me right now. His value will rise during the season and I’d rather sell then, than sell for less right now. Time is on your side, ironically.
On the flip side, I’ve been seeing players like Robby Anderson, Jamison Crowder, DeAndre Hopkins, and Brandin Cooks become severely undervalued. These players all posted great numbers during the season, but seem to hold no long term value to many dynasty players.
Hopkins will have top production for years to come. He will continue to be discounted this through multiple seasons (seeing a Julio Jones-like trend), despite that when healthy he had Top-14 fantasy football numbers this past season.
These players all should be bought this offseason. The discount is too great for their level of production. With them all being under 30, they still have years left of top production. Having these players gives you more flexibility come regular season; giving you viable starters to trade and start your path to a championship.
Discounting veterans is fair, if it’s the right veterans. People look at age and automatically want out. While there is an age threshold, most players are still 2-3 years out from that expected drop off. Having their production at a reduced rate helps you win championships and if your not competing for championships, someone will pay during the season for much more than you pay today.
The market trend says veterans are always discounted this time of year, and then sold for way more in the regular season. It’s a way to increase stability in your fantasy football league throughout a long offseason, and helps add value to a roster come in season.
As always, leave your thoughts and comments below! Go buy those veterans before it’s too late!
