The Detroit Lions went under a complete overhaul this offseason. Detroit brought in a new regime that decided to part ways with former first overall pick, Matthew Stafford; trading him away for Jared Goff and future draft picks. The Lions elected to invest heavy draft capital on the interior, hoping to build from the inside out. The question remains how good the team will be in the first year of the rebuild and what does it mean for fantasy football?
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Above are my projections for the Detroit Lions offense this year. It surprised me how well Goff and D’Andre Swift projected. I have changed my tune on them for fantasy football, as I was previously fading both. I love making projections because it allows me to see if the narratives around players and teams hold up. While forecasts will never be perfect, they are a valuable tool for any fantasy player.
Captain Quarterback
After three consecutive top-13 fantasy football finishes, Jared Goff fell on hard times in 2020. Goff compiled his lowest marks since his rookie season in numerous categories. With Goff’s struggles, the Rams offense had its worst season since 2016, finishing 11th in points and 22nd in yards. It left fantasy football managers disappointed as Goff finished as the QB18. Unless you are in a Superflex league, that is not someone you can rely on except as a streaming option.
The most significant addition for Goff is the improved line he now has in Detroit. Goff’s weakness has constantly been his inability to navigate pressure in his career. Moving to Detroit should allow him to be more comfortable in the pocket. The offensive line will enable Detroit to implement a similar play-action-based scheme that Los Angeles did throughout Goff’s career. Goff will look better behind the improved offensive line.
It may not seem like it, but Goff will outperform expectations in 2021. I have Goff completing 385 of 605 passing attempts for 4,412 yards; with 25 touchdowns, 16 interceptions, and one rushing touchdown. Those numbers project to 257.2 Fantasy Points. Enough to be a backend QB2 in Superflex leagues or a potential streamer in 1QB leagues.
Success is unlikely in the win department for Detroit, as the talent is still not on par with the rest of the division. However, Goff will bring some stability to the quarterback room as Detroit does its best to move out of rebuilding mode.
Whose Backfield Is It?
With Stafford departing, D’Andre Swift is the name with the most cache on offense. Swift was electric in his first professional season and lived up to everything you could hope for from a rookie. On a team that struggled offensively, Swift managed to eclipse over 800 scrimmage yards and 10 touchdowns. At the same time showing off his receiving chops while earning a 12.8% Target Share last season, best for 9th among running backs.
I expect that efficiency to continue in 2021 as I have Swift finishing with 243 PPR Points. Based on the last three years of scoring, that would put Swift 8th, 10th, and 9th. Swift is the passing down back in an offense that will push the 80 target threshold. With Adrian Peterson and Kerryon Johnson gone this year, Swift will take a hefty share of the carries. In total, I have Swift accumulating 255 touches for 1,374 yards and nine touchdowns. Those numbers will put Swift as a high-end RB2/Low-end RB1.
Jamaal Williams was brought over in free agency from Green Bay and has received a lot of hype for the potential role as the backup to Swift. While he does have a decent situation in this offense, it will not lead to much fantasy success. I project Williams to earn 185 touches, but his efficiency will not be on par with Swift. An average of 8.6 fantasy points per game is RB4 numbers or someone you will not be able to trust in your lineup, except as a matchup-dependent flex play.
Whose The Alpha
The receiver room is up in the air. In the fourth round of this year’s draft, the Lions selected ‘The Sun God’; aka Amon-Ra St. Brown, who takes over the slot role. We know that Goff loves his slot receivers, meaning Amon Ra St. Brown will eat as a rookie. I project him to lead this ragtag group in targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns.
While that is an achievement for any rookie, it may not lead to much fantasy football success. I Projected St. Brown to finish with 91 targets, 60 receptions, 695 yards, and five touchdowns. Good enough for 169.6 PPR points. Those numbers can slide into the WR3/4 role on your team.
Tyrell Williams and Breshad Perriman are two intriguing wide receivers in this offense. They might provide some spike weeks in fantasy, as they both project to hit close to 600 yards this season. The problem is that neither one is projecting to be as involved as St. Brown. Instead, they are likely boom-bust options that will likely bust on your team. Both will be better NFL options than fantasy options this season. Of the two, I prefer Williams as a late-round flier in deep leagues.
Do not lose sleep trying to remember the trio of Quintez Cephus, Geronimo Allison, and Kalif Raymond. They are best left on the waiver wire as they will not make a significant weekly impact. One of the three could hit in a week. Good luck projecting which week that may be.
Bully Tight End
T.J. Hockenson will be the alpha of this passing attack. He is the player that will push the 20% Target Share in this offense. It will go through him, as he is the most talented receiver the Lions have rostered. Goff has targeted his tight end at a decent clip in his NFL career, and Hock will be the best tight end Goff has thrown to.
Hockenson will easily blow past his totals from last season. Based on my projections, Hockenson finishes with 206.5 PPR points or 12.14 PPG. That puts Hockenson 5th amongst tight ends from last season. The slash line comes out to 115-79-912-6. Any tight end achieving those numbers outside the big three of Kelce, Waller, and Kittle you would happily take. Considering Hockenson and Goff are in a new offense.
I am content to invest in Hockenson this season at a sixth-round price to lock up the premium tight end production.
Darren Fells should only be a name you are considering in 2TE leagues. My projections have him accumulating 45 PPR points this season. Fells is not a name you should consider in standard leagues.
Conclusion
The Lions will be one of the worst teams in the NFL for the 2021 season. However, that does not mean they are without fantasy value. Two names that stand out are D’Andre Swift and T.J. Hockenson. Target those players early and often in fantasy drafts this year. Lastly, at the end of your drafts, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jamaal Williams are two names I would look to grab. Tyrell Williams and Jared Goff will have some value in deeper leagues as end of the roster types. Everyone else will not have much fantasy value this year.
Jesse Moeller
Jesse Moeller is a fascinating character. By day, he's a restaurant manager, but during his free time, he transforms into a fantasy football analyst. He's been playing fantasy football since 1999, which means he's been around the block a few times. But his passion for the game has never waned. Jesse is a devoted husband to his wife Andrea, whom he's been married to for five years. They have a lovely daughter Cecilia, who is now four years old. Jesse's journey into content creation began with The League Winners in 2021, and he hasn't looked back since. Dynasty is his passion, and his love for the game is infectious. Jesse is a true degenerate who loves the fantasy football and the community that supports it.