Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings: Keys to the Game

The Detroit Lions (14-2) will host the Minnesota Vikings (14-2) on Sunday Night Football with everything on the line. The final game of the regular season will feature two of the best teams in the NFL.

The winner of this game will not only win the NFC North but will also secure the No. 1 seed, giving them a first-round bye. The loser will be the No. 5 seed and play a road playoff game in the first round against the Falcons, Buccaneers, or Rams. The Lions are 3-point favorites.

Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings Matchup History & Excerpts

The Lions won the first matchup between these two teams in Week 7 with a score of 31-29. The game ended on the last drive, where Jake Bates hit a game-winning field goal.

Detroit head coach Dan Campbell has taken the Lions to a place no other head coach has in the past. They are on the verge of the best record in the NFC and back-to-back NFC North Championships for the first time in franchise history. This game versus the Vikings is the chance for the team to prove they belong, even with the onslaught of defensive injuries.

Ahead of this matchup, Campbell gave his thoughts on the last meeting between these two teams, and the team’s mindset going forward.

“You come out of that game and feel like, what gives you the best odds to where the ultimate (goal) is, which is as we all know what the prize is, and that’s the Super Bowl,” Campbell said. “You try to set yourself up the best you can, and that’s why you put those goals out there. So, yeah, it’s been there for a while. Certainly, this is something we want to do and we’ve had in our minds — division and one seed and all that, and it’s right there in our hands.”

Campbell has put a target on this team’s back for the first time in franchise history, and it’s a position this team thrive in.

For the Vikings, defensive coordinator Brian Flores’s plan to stop this formidable Lions offense will be key for the Minnesota. The Lions have gotten the best of him in all three matchups during his Vikings tenure, and he will surely bring his best with everything on the line this week.

“They’ve got a pretty dynamic pass offense, run game, screen game,” said Flores ahead of this week’s matchup. “They got a bunch of trick plays, also. But to me it comes down to fundamentals and techniques — make sure you’re setting edges and playing with the right leverage and coverage and getting to your landmarks — and those routine things that are kind of ‘boring.’ I think if you do those things over and over and over again, you put yourself in position for somebody to be ready for whatever the trick play is. […] I think more times than not, if you’re consistently doing those things and letting other guys handle their responsibility, I think oftentimes what happens is, and it happens with us, too — everybody wants to make a play or get involved and run to the football, and Detroit kind of uses that to their advantage, which is smart by them.”

Key Players for the Lions

Jared Goff has been phenomenal in his past four games, and the last time he faced the Vikings, he was at his most efficient.

In his prior meeting versus the Vikings, Goff threw for 280 yards and two touchdowns while completing 88 percent of his passes.

Jahmyr Gibbs was also sensational in his previous game versus the Vikings, providing critical big runs and pushing the Lions into field goal range late to win the game. Without David Montgomery, Gibbs would have been more important than ever.

Amon-Ra St. Brown is the type of wide receiver the Viking’s defense struggles to cover, and the involvement of Jameson Williams in the late stretch of this season has given the Lions’ offense a completely new look. The Lions’ offensive line will be key in stopping a formidable Vikings pass rush.

Defensively, the pass rush has been improving recently with the addition of Za’Darius Smith, even after the Alim McNeil injury. Levi Onwuzurike and DJ Reader have been stout presences on the interior defensive line.

Linebacker Alex Anzalone is on track to play this week after being placed on IR in Week 10, reuniting the linebacker duo of Jack Campbell and Alex Anzalone.

In the secondary, Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch will attempt to stifle Minnesota’s passing attack.

Key Players for Minnesota

Quarterback Sam Darnold is having a career season with over 4000 passing yards and 30 touchdowns. He is a key piece of this Vikings offense that has been one of the best in the league.

Running back Aaron Jones has had one of the best years of his career, leading the Vikings backfield.

Wide receiver Justin Jefferson is having another sensational season, cementing his status as the league’s best wide receiver, and Jordan Addison is a quality wide receiver two.

Tight end  TJ Hockenson will appear in his first game against the Lions after tearing his ACL versus the same team that drafted him.

Defensively, the defensive line is headlined by Jonathon Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel, both of whom have career seasons leading a blitz-heavy Vikings defense.

Linebacker Blake Cashman is the engine of this Viking’s defense. He is an outstanding coverage linebacker that allows Flores to blitz his linebackers who excel at it.

In the secondary, new acquisition Byron Murhpy Jr. is a lockdown slot corner supported by safeties Cam Bynum and Harrison Smith.

Keys to Win the Game

Avoid Negative Plays on First Down

The Lions must stay ahead of the sticks on first down, generating positive, successful first-down plays. The Vikings’ defense thrives by creating explosive plays early on and forcing teams into long third downs.

If the Lions can create manageable second and third downs, they will mitigate the impact of the electric blitz the Vikings plan to bring for most of the game.

Generate Long Third Downs on Defense

The Lions have been near the bottom of the NFL in pass defense by EPA/Play (0.244) since Week 13, followed by some of the worst teams in the NFL. The defense has been allowing easy completions over the last few weeks, putting immense pressure on the offense’s shoulders to score on every single drive.

if the Lions can force long third downs, the Detroit defense will perform significantly better. They have been slightly below average by EPA/play on third downs since Week 13. Forcing long third downs and turnovers is the best chance the Lions’ defense has of getting off the field.

Score on Every Offensive Drive

As detailed earlier and over the past few weeks, the Lions’ defense struggled to stop above-average offenses from scoring on every drive.

The Vikings are one of the best offenses in the league and should have no trouble driving down the field. This will force the Lions to need to score on nearly every single possession that Detroit will have. For each possession they punt or come up empty, their probability of winning significantly decreases.