Astrology is defined as the study of the movements and relative positions of celestial bodies interpreted as having an influence on human affairs and the natural world. Today we are going to attempt some Devy Astrology. Studying the relationship of stars (recruiting ranking) as they relate to future fantasy point production.
For this exercise we’re going to use the 24/7 composite rankings as our recruiting source. Devy is an ever evolving format. Because of that, we’re going to look at fantasy finishes over the last five seasons and how those players have produced during their careers.
Our hope is to identify difference making players as early as possible. We’ll look at players who had a top 12 finish at their position (top 5 TE) in PPR settings who played a minimum of 10 games per season.
Quarterback
Observations
What immediately jumps out is the success achieved by unranked players. Even without recognition coming out of high-school, a handful of them were able to play themselves into 1st round draft picks.
The unpredictability and extreme difficulty in evaluating the quarterback position is evident. Three of the greatest statistical passers to ever play the game, and potentially a handful of Hall of Famers, were unable to grab the attention of the recruiting services.
Another interesting side note; It’s apparent that NFL executives and decision makers are willing to risk their reputation by selecting ‘their guys’ – regardless of pedigree or even level of competition.
By The Numbers
- 14 of 29 (48%) of QB’S with a top 12 season were rated 4☆ or above
- 8 of 22 (36%) of QB’S with multiple top 12 seasons were rated 4☆ or above
- 4 of 12 (33%) of QB’S with multiple top 5 seasons were rated 4☆ or above
- Biggest Hits: Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, and Matthew Stafford
- Biggest Misses: Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Drew Brees
Looking at the 5☆ recruits from the last handful of draft cycles we see the unpredictability continue. We’ve seen early success from some. The low hit rates look to remain steady.
On The Horizon
The 2023 draft class saw three quarterbacks selected in the first four picks. Those were Bryce Young, CJ Stroud and Anthony Richardson. All three were highly recruited in their class, each falling in the top 15 rated players at their position.
The 2024 draft class is headlined by another pair of highly recruited quarterbacks in USC 5☆ Caleb Williams and North Carolina 4☆ Drake Maye. Both were ranked inside the top 10 of their respective classes as recruits.
Recent blue chip prospects Justin Fields, Trevor Lawrence and Tua Tagovailoa have all been successful fantasy assets early in their careers.
Is this a trend that the recruiting services are becoming more accurate in their rankings? Or, just a blip on the radar? Only time will tell.
Takeaways
Fantasy production appears to be very repeatable for the top producers, and has the longest peak career longevity. The unpredictability of the position, along with the cost of acquisition, makes for spending premium Devy picks on the position a risky venture.
Running Back
Observations
A quick review of the data is interesting when it comes to top-end fantasy production among running backs. The overwhelming recurring fantasy production came from high recruiting pedigree players.
By The Numbers
- 14 of 29 (48%) of RB with a top 12 season were rated 4☆ or above
- 12 of 20 (60%) of RB with multiple top 12 season were rated 4☆ or above
- 8 of 10 (80%) of RB with multiple top 5 seasons were rated 4☆ or above
- Biggest Hits: 2017 NFL draft class, Ezekiel Elliott, Todd Gurley
- Biggest Misses: Jonathan Taylor, Aaron Jones
Looking at the 5☆ recruits of recent draft classes, we are left unimpressed. This is something to monitor as we know this is the player pool for top end production.
Is this just cyclical? Or is it the ripple effect of the position being devalued at the highest level?
On The Horizon
Bijan Robinson was the prize of the 2023 NFL Draft, but he wasn’t the only RB to have his name called in Round 1. Alabama standout Jahmyr Gibbs was taken 12th overall by the Detroit Lions. It was a move that caused waves across fantasy leagues everywhere.
The 2024 class has some very talented RB’s of it’s own. OSU’s Treveyon Henderson and Raheim “Rocket” Sanders of Arkansas are great targets in Devy startups.
Takeaways
We are seeing fewer fantasy managers invest premium picks on the RB position in recent years due to the fragility of the position. Yet make no mistake, the difference making, high-end fantasy producers are coming from high pedigree recruits.
Make these players a priority in your Devy drafts. It should pay dividends in the future.
Wide Receiver
Observations
At first glance we see a lot of young, high pedigree recruits that have already reached fantasy success early on in their careers. That’s a promising sign. We also notice that success seems to be repeatable, especially with players that have reached top five seasons.
Also noticeable is the longevity of the positions’ peak success. It’s not to the level of the top-end quarterbacks, but significantly longer than running backs.
By The Numbers
- 17 of 30 (57%) of WR with a top 12 season were 4☆ or above
- 5 of 11 (44%) of WR with multiple top 12 seasons were 4☆ or above
- 5 of 11 (45%) of WR with multiple top 5 seasons were 4☆ or above
- Biggest Hits: Stefon Diggs, Keenan Allen (safety), and Amon’ra St. Brown
- Biggest Misses: Justin Jefferson, Davante Adams, and Tyreek Hill
A look at recent 5☆ recruits at the WR position gives us a little more hope than other positions. We have multiple players that have already hit top 12 seasons in Tee Higgins and Amon-Ra St. Brown.
On The Horizon
The 2024 class is headlined by another pair of Ohio State standouts. Marvin Harrison Jr 4☆, son of Hall of Famer Marvin Harrison, along with 5☆ teammate Emeka Egbuka.
Takeaways
The staying power of elite WR’s as top-end fantasy producers is part of what has made the position a priority for Devy managers over the past few seasons.
Recruiting pedigree was more predictive for WR’s hitting a top 12 season compared to QB and RB. Though it doesn’t appear to matter for the best of the best.
Once an “outlier” reaches fantasy success at WR, they appear more likely to repeat it versus their running back counterparts.
Tight End
Observations
One look at the data and you can see why, in a previous Devy Draft Tips article of mine, I advised you to avoid drafting TE’s in Devy!
By The Numbers
- *3 of 15 (20%) of players with a top 5 season were ranked 4☆ or above
- *Mark Andrews, Darren Waller, and Logan Thomas weren’t ranked as TE’s out of high-school
- *2 of 7 (29%) of players with multiple top 5 seasons were ranked 4☆ or above *(Andrews)
- Biggest Hits: Rob Gronkowski, Zach Ertz
- Biggest Misses: Travis Kelce
Looking at recent 5☆ recruits doesn’t do much of anything for us.
On The Horizon
Kyle Pitts 4☆, and Pat Friermuth 4☆ are two of the top rated newcomers to the TE landscape over the past couple seasons.
The 2023 draft class brought in 5☆ Notre Dame product Michael Mayer. The 2024 draft class holds the Devy communities crown jewel in Georgia 5☆ Brock Bowers.
Takeaways
With the lack of consistent fantasy producers at the TE position, all it takes is a little TD luck to vault someone into the top 5.
There’s only a couple of reliable point scorers over the past few seasons. It’s easy to see why fantasy managers are willing to pay up for the elite producers – hoping to gain a huge positional advantage. Just don’t expect recruiting pedigree or draft capital to point you in the right direction of who that next player might be.
Conclusion
Do the stars align when it comes to predicting future fantasy and Devy success of high school recruits?
For the wide receiver and running back position, I would say yes. The high end, year over year, difference making production you look for are from top running backs.
As for the quarterback position, this is just further evidence of the difficulty of evaluating the position at every level of play. Keep this in mind when you’re on the clock in your next Devy draft.
