Devy: David Bell or Treylon Burks?

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Two big names in fantasy football Devy leagues for 2022 are David Bell and Treylon Burks. Let’s take a look at how they compare as prospects going into the NFL.

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The 2021 NFL Draft is over, so what do we do now until the NFL season? Overreact to every tidbit we hear from minicamps and workouts? While that is fun and can provide a lot of topics for debate, it is more entertaining to dive into some prospects for next year. Whether you are about to have a Devy draft or just want to get a head start on the 2022 NFL Draft class, two top prospects to watch out for are David Bell and Treylon Burks. Let’s take a look and what they have done and how they project to the NFL.

Player Profiles

All below data can be found under Jerrick Backous Patreon, it is a great database for Devy information. Both Bell and Burks were similarly ranked WR recruits in 2019 and decided to stay in their home state. Bell picked Purdue over offers from most of the Big 10 and Notre Dame, while Burks picked Arkansas over Clemson, FSU, and LSU.

Bell’s decision came off the heels of the excellent freshman season of Rondale Moore at Purdue, and what looked like an up-and-coming team. Burks on the other hand decided on Arkansas, who had only won two games in 2018; but there was not a dominant WR on the roster. Both players ended up contributing their Freshman year and playing over 11 games.

 

The Film

Below are the eight traits I have identified to grade receivers on. Big thanks to Christian Williams for his advice and piece on his evaluation process; I highly recommend checking it out. As you can see below both are very close in how they grade out on the traits.

Analytics

Both David Bell and Treylon Burks have similar contested-catch percentage and catch rate, but a lot of their other stats differ. Bell has more production, a higher dominator percentage, and an earlier breakout year. Burks, as listed in the traits from the film, has more big-play ability and his average depth of target is a little farther down the field.

It’s interesting that even though Burks is bigger, he has most of his snaps in the slot. I think this is due more to scheme rather than due to need. Also, it could be perceived if Bell played more in the slot he may be able to get better releases off the line.

 

 

 

Two great analytic metrics to compare WRs are weighted dominator, and reception yards per team pass attempt. As you can see in these two graphs from campus2canton.com, both Bell and Burks compare very favorably to other recent 1st round WRs in college.

The regression line on both graphs shows the average for the Top-24 WRs in the NFL; both Bell and Burks are above that line. Bell stands out as he is the only one with a dominator rating above the line in his freshman year (though a caveat is that year Rondale Moore missed two-thirds of the season).

Perception

I wanted to take a look at the perception of these two WRs, so first I just took to Twitter to see who was favored. The winner by a landslide was Treylon Burks.

On top of that poll, I went to Campus2Canton again and asked two contributors that favored Bell, and two that favored Burks – this was their conclusion.

It seemed that those favoring Bell did tend to say that Burks had more upside. But despite that, he has not shown to be better on the field yet. Those who liked Burks better thought Bell had the safer floor but did not see any elite traits for him to surpass Burks.

David Bell:

• Can play all over the field and win at all spots
• More polished WR as of now. Smooth in and out of Breaks
• Plays better than he will test; aka Justin Jefferson (this person clarified not calling Bell to be as good as Jefferson)
• Strong and Physical – Does not get bullied by DBs
• Jarvis Landry, Keenan Allen type WR that’s really safe pick

Treylon Burks:

• Elite size, speed, and athleticism
• is a raw WR, plenty of room for growth
• One of the best athletes in the game
• Position versatile (inside and outside)
• Red Zone threat and can run after the catch

Outlook in the NFL

David Bell

Bell had the earlier breakout and seemed to be more consistent over his time at Purdue, moreso than Rondale Moore. He is able to fight through defenders to gain extra yards and can run every type of route. He is not a great blocker, but will get in the way and doesn’t shy away from contact. His blocking could be improved going into the next level.

I like that Bell is already polished and can contribute right away. With the NFL moving towards players being interchangeable and needing many skillsets, I think he checks a lot of those boxes. One issue is how he will test athletically, and that could push him towards the back-end of the 1st round.

Treylon Burks

Burks had a breakout in Year 2 and showed how much he improved over the past year. He is still developing, but showed better ability in route running and seeing different coverages. He is an athletic freak and has the ability that a lot of the receivers in the 2022 class just do not have.

One issue I had was not necessarily with him, but the scheme of the offense. They put him in motion often, and did a lot of passes close to the line of scrimmage. He was used as a decoy too often; with his ability I think it is good to get him in space, but not sideline-to-sideline as Arkansas used him.

I am interested to see the progress Burks has in his third year in college. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him being similar to A.J. Brown and D.K. Metcalf; falling out of the 1st round because of college production, but showing quickly how good a player he is in the NFL.

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Both David Bell and Treylon Burks are great prospects. They look to be at the top going into the 2021 season, and are poised for 1st round potential in the 2022 draft. Both are on-average football teams and are never going to receive great QB play during their collegiate careers.

I think Bell is utilized better by his team, but Burks has the higher upside. I personally lean towards liking Bell more, but if Burks continues to develop that could change. I would say in startup Devy leagues to get both of these players. If you do not have them you should try to acquire them prior the 2021 NCAAF season when before it gets too costly.