I think Derrick Henry is high in most people’s fantasy football rankings. In this piece, I’m going to point out the criticisms of Derrick Henry, as voiced by Josh Larky on Twitter (and TikTok) here. My argument for Derrick Henry will therefore be a bit more of an argument against the arguments against Henry.
If you don’t feel like watching (or can’t watch) the video, these are the concerns Larky puts forward:
- Old running backs don’t get a lot of carries (and Derrick Henry is 28).
- Derrick Henry has never had 20 receptions in a season (so you’ll be relying on rushing volume).
- The Titans offense is projected to be below average in 2022.
- Derrick Henry has a hard time putting up points without touchdowns (he’s only scored 15 or more (PPR) fantasy points in 3 of 45 games without a touchdown).
“Old Running Backs Don’t Get a Lot of Carries”
To answer the first point, I’d be hard-pressed to do a better job than Adeiko does here. When running backs aren’t good when they’re young, why should we expect them to be good when they’re old? In addition to Derrick Henry being (literally) “built different” and therefore better-suited to play such a violent position, he’s been far more successful in his youth than the backs listed here.
“Derrick Henry Has Never Had 20 Receptions in a Season”
On the receptions front, Larky’s statement is factually correct. But I think this fact obscures, rather than helps.
In 2019 and 2020, Henry came very close to breaking Larky’s 20-reception threshold (18 receptions in 15 games in 2019 and 19 in 16 in 2020); and he was easily on pace to do so in 2021 before his injury (18 receptions in 8 games).
In games where Derrick Henry plays a majority of offensive snaps (more on this later), he’s averaged 1.33 receptions per game; fueled in no small part by his 2.25 receptions per game in 2021. If Henry keeps up his historical pace (across 45 games, so not a particularly small sample size), we should see him put up over 20 receptions in 2022.
Both of these points are tied to the concern that Henry won’t be able to put up 300 carries in 2022. Henry did this in 2019 (303 carries in 15 games) and 2020 (378 in 16). He was also on pace to do so again in 2021 (219 in 8).
Revisiting those games where Henry played a majority of offensive snaps, he’s averaged (across 45 games) 22.91 carries per game. That would put him on pace for close to 390 carries this season! In fact, Henry could see a 20% drop-off in his per-game carries and still break the 300-carry threshold (provided he plays in all 17 games).
“The Titans Offense is Projected to be Below Average in 2022”
I think the broad issues with the Titans offense is probably the most fair critique for Derrick Henry. I don’t think many teams are particularly concerned about Ryan Tannehill lighting them up. Henry could face more stacked boxes, which isn’t a great sign for him. For Derrick Henry to do well, one needs to hope that Treylon Burks, Robert Woods, and company can perform well with Tannehill.
“Derrick Henry Has a Hard Time Putting Up Points Without Touchdowns”
The last argument is that Derrick Henry is touchdown-dependent. Larky points out a very low rate of high fantasy production when Henry doesn’t score a touchdown. Yet here he doesn’t account for snap share! This includes more than a few games where Henry did not play a majority of offensive snaps.
Of the 44 (not 45) games where Derrick Henry didn’t score a rushing or receiving touchdown (he threw a touchdown in one of those 44), only 17 of those were games where Henry played a majority of offensive snaps.
This entire line of argument ignores that scoring touchdowns is a large part of the Derrick Henry appeal – and something he does consistently. Henry has put up at least one touchdown in almost 65% of the games in which he’s played a majority of snaps; contributing to his average of 20.52 PPR fantasy points in those games. (This average doesn’t include his monstrous 47.8 point game where Henry played only 40% of snaps.) Additionally, Henry has scored at least 15 PPR fantasy points in 2/3 of games where he played a majority of offensive snaps.
Injury Concerns?
Derrick Henry missed nine games in 2021, but his return to the field in the playoffs indicates a successful recovery from surgery. This should be encouraging for anyone worried about his health.
Conclusion
In all, I am very bullish on Derrick Henry this season. While the rest of the Titans offense might limit him to some extent – particularly in their inability to draw attention away from him – I expect Henry to return to full strength after his 2021 injury. I think he will continue to put up dominant rushing numbers and passable receiving ones en route to another RB1 season. I would easily take him in the top three in 1QB redraft leagues. In dynasty, I’m easily forking over something like A.J. Dillon+ or a mid ’23 1st for a championship run with him.
