Bonjour, Mesdames et Messieurs! Recently, D’Onta Foreman signed a one-year, $3M contract with the Chicago Bears. What type of fantasy football production can we expect out of D’Onta Foreman? To know “what to expect, when expecting,” we must understand the individual’s past.
I’ve always had an affinity towards D’Onta Foreman, starting when he was an NFL Draft prospect playing for the Texas Longhorns. A grown man weighing in at 233lbs and having a 40-time of 4.46 coming out of college is outstanding.
Mr. Foreman was drafted by his hometown team, the Houston Texans, in the 3rd round of the 2017 NFL Draft. However, the hometown love was short-lived. In his rookie season, Bill O’Brien underutilized Foreman and chose to feature Lamar “touch & fall” Miller. Additionally, his rookie season was cut short due to a torn Achilles injury. D’Onta finished his rookie season with 78 carries for 327 yards, two touchdowns, and six receptions for 83 yards in 10 games and one start.
It took three years for Mr. Foreman to fully recover from his torn Achilles, Biceps, and, more importantly, his reputation. In 2021, during his 2nd stint with the Tennessee Titans, he took advantage of his prime opportunity. Following Derrick Henry’s injury in Week 8, Foreman was credited for helping the Titans reach the playoffs and win the AFC South in his absence. Foreman had 133 carries for 566 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns to go along with nine receptions for 123 receiving yards in nine games.
Foreman’s success with the Titans allowed him to sign a one-year deal with Carolina in 2022. Because of a mid-season trade involving the Panthers’ Christian McCaffrey, Foreman had his most prominent role in an offense – becoming the lead running back in the Panthers’ backfield. He would finish the season rushing for 914 yards and five touchdowns on 203 attempts, all career highs.
Continued success leads to better opportunities. Now we are; looking forward to more success from Mr. Foreman playing for the Bears. What can we expect when expecting?
Expectations
Expectations are essential in life because they cause happiness and frustration. If you manage your expectations incorrectly, you could fall into a downward spiral of bad decisions in fantasy football, such as trading players too early or too low of value. We have to manage our expectations to manage our feelings.
We can use last season and the Bears’ offseason moves as a clue to know “what to expect when expecting.”
Last Season
D’Onta Foreman’s soon-to-be teammate, Bears’ RB Khalil Herbert, averaged 3.3 yards before contact, according to FantasyPros. D’Onta Foreman running behind the Panthers’ OL, averaged 2.5 yards before contact. It is reasonable to expect Mr. Foreman to average between 3.3 and 3.5 yards before contact since he is slightly quicker than Khalil Herbert. Additionally, the Bears signed OG Nate Davis to a three-year deal worth $30M with $19.25M guaranteed. With the improvement of the interior OL, 3.5 yards before contact are within the realm of possibilities.
Last season, D’Onta Foreman, while playing for Carolina Panthers, averaged 2.0 yards after contact. With the Bears’ current improvements at the OL position and new scenery, we expect Mr. Foreman to average between 4.5 and 5.0 yards per carry. Now, we must identify the Bears’ identity, his role, and how many snaps and carries he will receive from his new team.
Comparing D'Onta Foreman and Nick Chubb, Weeks 7-18.
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) March 10, 2023
Foreman: 191 carries for 876 yards, five touchdowns, 32 missed tackles forced, 12 carries of 15 or more yards.
Chubb: 192 carries for 876 yards, five touchdowns, 41 missed tackles forced, 12 carries of 15 or more yards. pic.twitter.com/9Z9mDpXEAC
Identity
There are two factors to consider. First, we all understand the NFL is a copycat league. The Eagles’ offensive success is the perfect blueprint for the Bears. Jalen Hurts and Justin Fields have similar skill sets. Also, they work out together in the offseason and are close friends. So you best believe behind the scenes that Fields is asking the Bears to configure a similar offense to Jalen Hurts and the Eagles since that offense led them to a Super Bowl birth.
The Bears trading away the first overall pick in the 2023 NFL draft to the Carolina Panthers and getting DJ Moore in the trade signal that they will mimic the Eagles’ approach. Last year, the Eagles traded for ex-Titan, AJ Brown during the 2022 NFL Draft.
For some context, here are the rushing and passing attempt numbers from the Eagles and Bears last season:
Eagles
- 635 rushing attempts Ran 45% plays out of 1395
- 760 passing attempts
Bears
- 491 rushing attempts (Bears) Ran 47% plays out of 1034
- 543 passing attempts
The Bears decreasing their rushing attempts by 2% is a reasonable expectation. I would expect them to run less than 1400 plays, because I don’t think that effectiveness could quite mimic the 2022 Eagles. For argument’s sake, let’s go with a manageable number and say the Bears will run 1300 offensive plays this season. If the Bears run the ball 45% time, they will run the ball 585 times out of 1300 total offensive plays.
How many carries will D’Onta Foreman receive out of the 585 rushing attempts?
Role
Last season, Justin Fields had 18% of the rushing attempts compared to Jalen Hurts, receiving 25% of the attempts. Let’s split the difference and say the Bears run Fields more in 2023, and reach the 22% threshold – 128 carries.
David Montgomery received over 42% of the rushing attempts. This is significant, considering Ryan Poles and Matt Eberflus didn’t draft him. Now, they signed an RB they want on their roster. We can expect a significant rushing share for D’Onta. If he receives 50% of the carries, he could roughly see 292 rushing attempts.
D’Onta Foreman’s 292 carries and averaging 4.7 yards per carry puts him at 1372 rushing yards in our speculative model.
Remember, the Bears are likely to copy the Eagles’ offense from last year. In that offense, Miles Sanders had 13 TDs, and this is with a coaching staff that didn’t trust him in goal-line situations. The Bears will trust D’Onta in goal-line situations due to his size alone.
I’m not expecting the Bears to have 42 rushing TDs as the Eagles did last season, but 30 TDs total is reasonable. Just as last season, Justin Fields with 8 TDs and Khalil Herbert with 6 TDs leaves D’Onta with 16 TDs. We will go with the three rushing TDs for the random situations. So, we are right back with 13 TDs, just the same as Miles Sanders.
Receiving
Most mobile QBs rarely use RBs in the passing game, but David Montgomery had 34 receptions, 316 yards, and a TD with Justin Fields as the starting QB the majority of the time. We can expect something similar for D’Onta next year because of the DJ Moore and ex-Packer, TE Robert Tonyan, and OG Nate Davis signings. The new additions will provide Justin Fields with more converted 1st downs, translating to more opportunities for everyone in the offense.
Again, I used the Eagles as the template. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles threw 569 passes on target, with 71.2% of targets caught.
For this exercise, we will anticipate 550 targeted passes, with 65% of targets caught.
DJ Moore, Darnell Mooney, Cole Kmet, and Chase Claypool will be the featured pass-catchers. Between those four, we can anticipate a 70% to 75% target share, leaving 25% left for the random pass catchers and RBs. D’Onta Foreman has a passing game skillset, despite being a bigger back. A 13% target share for D’Onta is where we will go.
For D’Onta, 71 targets, 46 receptions (65% targets caught), and 2 TDs.
Fantasy Football Total
We have all the numbers we need to accumulate our fantasy football predictions for D’Onta Foreman.
292 carries 1372 rushing yards, 13 TD, 71 targets, 46 receptions (65% targets caught), and 2 TDs. In a PPR league = 273.2 Fantasy Pts. If Mr. Foreman scored 273.2 points last season, he would have been the overall RB2, just behind Josh Jacobs.
The total seems unreasonable. We must remember that this projection is banking on the Bears’ offense having colossal success and mimicking the Eagles. If the Bears’ OC, Luke Getsy, can’t figure out how to gain success with Justin Fields, D’Onta’s career will also suffer. However, I’m bullish on the Bears’ offense.
We must readjust our numbers if the Bears draft another significant RB.
Conclusion
‘What to expect, when expecting’ is another way of saying ‘Living in the Future‘. Going through the D’Onta Foreman signing made me realize that I have high hopes for the Bears displaying the proper vision to enjoy success with Justin Fields.
In Fantasy Football Dynasty, we try our best to be part of the Keen Observer Posse (KOP), putting us in the best position to say we are “Living in the Future.” Sometimes your initial optimism might seem untenable, but it is always crucial to use a template that has a similar fit.
We did that with the Eagles’ offense for our Bears projection.
I hope I was helpful and provided some significant insight. I’m always seeking to get it right rather than being right.
If you have any questions regarding my comments, please don’t hesitate to contact me on Twitter. Stay with us at The League Winners for more fantasy news, or find us on Twitter. Thank you for your time and support, and have a good day.
