Dynasty Fantasy Football – Four Players to Buy Low Before Free Agency

The NFL Combine exponentially raised the value of 1st round draft picks in dynasty fantasy football leagues. While other managers in your league are getting ready to target rookies, there’s plenty meat left on the bone of NFL rosters. With NFL free agency only a week away, here are four buy low options in your fantasy league.

Khalil Herbert, RB – Chicago Bears

The tag deadline came and went, and David Montgomery’s name wasn’t selected by the Chicago Bears. Monty will head into NFL free agency, and unlikely to return to the Bears. Chicago could draft or sign a free agent, but given Herbert’s contract and skill, I believe he could go into the season as the starter.

In 2022, it’s hard to disagree that Herbert was the best RB on the Bears roster. Herbert averaged 9.9 attempts per game, averaging 56.2 yards on 5.7 YPC – which led the NFL – throughout the season. David Montgomery averaged 12.6 attempts per game averaging 50.1 yards on 4 YPC.

Through the first eight weeks of the season, Khalil Herbert was the RB20 in PPR leagues – despite only being targeted seven times. He was also the RB23 during that span in PPG (min. 5 games). In comparison, Monty was the RB29 in PPG and the overall RB32.

Herbert showed great vision as a runner, and put his athletic ability on display nearly every time he touched the ball. He didn’t benefit from any easy running lanes, either.

Herbert faced 8+ defenders in the box at the 12th highest rate among all RBs with at least 100 rushing attempts. Despite that, KH ranked 1st among all running backs in RYOE/ATT (Rushing Yards Over Expected per Attempt).

Yes, it’s true the Bears could acquire another RB. But you’re not paying starter prices for Khalil Herbert – yet. I’m betting on the talent and expecting Herbert to out-play his RB34 ranking, per FantasyPros.

Herbert’s trade value in dynasty fantasy football all depends on the manager in your league. His value can range from a late 2nd, to an early 3rd. It is always easier to trade for players like Herbert by adding him into package deals. I recently acquired him by sending Darren Waller and Damien Harris for Herbert and Rashod Bateman.

James Conner, RB – Arizona Cardinals

The Arizona Cardinals are a team full of question marks. Kyler Murray is unlikely to start the season, the team is looking to trade DeAndre Hopkins, and they just hired a new head coach. James Conner’s injury history is concerning, but he’s a player I’m targeting to buy-low in dynasty fantasy football leagues.

James Conner only played 13 games last season, but when he did play, he was a gold mine for fantasy football. Conner was the RB9 in PPG (min. 10 games) in PPR leagues, averaging 15.4 points. In 2021, he was the overall RB5 and the RB7 in PPG.

With so much uncertainty in the Cardinals offense in 2023, James Conner is likely to carry the load. The Cardinals also have an out on Conner’s contract after this season. That opens the door for high usage in what could be his final season in the desert.

If Conner can stay healthy, he could potentially be a League Winner in dynasty fantasy football leagues – especially when you bake in his current value.

At the moment, Conner is going behind Elijah Moore in ADP, per DLF. The same Elijah Moore who finished as the WR81 last year. The trades involving Conner are just as mind-boggling, showcasing exactly how low his value is at the moment.

Mike Gesicki, TE – Miami Dolphins

It’s hard to find a player whose seen his dynasty fantasy football value tank as much as Mike Gesicki. His fit in McDaniel’s offense never made much sense, and it’s still puzzling that he was given the franchise tag in 2022. However, he heads into the 2023 offseason as an UFA and highly unlikely to return to Miami.

Despite Gesicki’s career-low numbers, he actually produced at an elite rate when he was a part of the gameplan. In the six games where Gesicki was targeted at least four times, he averaged 13.36 points in PPR leagues. That number would be good for the TE2 – no, that’s not a typo – ahead of George Kittle. Evidently, I’m not the only person who thinks that Gesicki’s potential could be sky-high in a different environment.

In dynasty fantasy football leagues, Mike Gesicki’s value is as low as it’ll ever be. He’s currently being drafted behind players such as Isaiah Hodgins and Damien Harris. As far as trades go, I’ve seen multiple leagues where he’s been moved for a 2023 3rd round pick. To me, that’s a steal; I’m betting on the rebirth of Gesicki’s relevance over nearly any player available at that price in a rookie draft.

Hunter Renfrow, WR – Las Vegas Raiders

If you follow me, you know that I am a big Hunter Renfrow fan. After a down 2022 season, I’m back on board in 2023.

Hunter Renfrow truly broke out in the dynasty fantasy football scene in 2021, finishing as the overall WR10 in PPR leagues. That production led to the Raiders re-signing Renfrow to a two-year deal worth $32.3M. 2022 was a huge disappointment, however, as injuries kept Renfrow off the field and unproductive. Despite that, I’m predicting a bounce-back year for the Raiders WR.

Renfrow was re-signed by the current Raiders staff, meaning the team has an actual investment in his production going forward. On top of that, we all know Josh McDaniels’ history involving slot receivers into his offense during his time with the Patriots. With another year under his belt – and a quarterback he can mold – I believe we will see Renfrow incorporated into the offense more by McDaniels.

Don’t be surprised to see Renfrow used more on the outside as a flanker, similar to how Julian Edelman was used by McDaniels with the Patriots. Despite his size and ability in the slot, Renfrow isn’t just a slot guy. In 2021, he scored six of his nine touchdowns while he was lined up on the outside.

When it comes to wide receivers in fantasy football, I love to target elite route-runners that aren’t considered ‘stars’ – especially in PPR leagues. While their booms may not be as high, they normally have a solid floor. And at their price, they can be great assets on a championship contender.

At the time of this writing, Renfrow’s current ADP (167th overall) is even lower than Mike Gesicki’s, per DLF. Due to his poor 2022 season and the presence of Davante Adams, Renfrow can be acquired quite easily. If Renfrow can return to his 2021 form, you could have a potential League Winner on your team for pennies on the dollar.