Dynasty Fantasy Football: Buy, Sell – August 2023

As a dynasty fantasy football player, it’s important to constantly assess player values. The ups and downs of the dynasty market are just as fluid as the financial ones. That’s probably why fantasy analysts preach for managers to “stay water”. 

With this in mind, our guys have done the hard work of evaluating the market for you, offering up our biggest buys and sells ahead of the 2023 season. With just weeks left til the start of the season, it’s time to make your final moves to set your team up for success in 2023 and beyond. 

So here are the best (and worst) values of the moment according to The League Winners’ Dynasty Team. 

Biggest Buys

There’s a lot of negativity surrounding Ravens’ running backs right now, so it’s an excellent opportunity to buy JK Dobbins. Dobbins is on the PUP list to start camp and the Ravens signed Melvin Gordon to a one-year deal. But these events provide leverage to buy Dobbins cheap. According to Player Profiler, Dobbins averaged 5.2 True Yards per Carry (TYPC). His TYPC ranked top five in 2022, a year notorious for how unhealthy Dobbins was. While Dobbins is efficient with his carries, he is incredibly explosive, too. 10.9% of his carries in 2022 went for at least 15 yards. With the increased passing volume due to the arrival of new OC Todd Monken, you can expect Dobbins to see fewer defenders in the box, making it more manageable for him to navigate the line of scrimmage. Buy him cheap and reap the benefits throughout the fantasy season.

~Joe Arledge @FF_Brows

Startup ADP: 6.05, RB18

Buy for: Jameson Williams, Michael Mayer +, Najee Harris (get + back with Dobbins)

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There’s no reason for someone with Quentin Johnston’s profile and landing spot to only be worth a mid-1st in rookie drafts. It’s still puzzling that he fell as far as he has so far. Johnston’s value is likely as low as it will ever be, currently behind Mike Williams and Keenan Allen, but both have outs in their contracts after 2023. I would think with the Chargers being $50 million over the salary cap, at least one of them will be playing for a different team next season. With Johnston already making plays in camp, we have to trust the talent and the investment of the Chargers. Johnston also registered 3.05 yards per route run in his last collegiate season. His unique size and speed blend has all the makings of a WR1 in fantasy and real life.

~Ryan Prosick @RyanPros_FF

Startup ADP: 5.05, WR19

Buy for: Mid ‘24 1st, Michael Pittman+ or any WR in his tier

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I’m not sure why Trey McBride is dropping down dynasty fantasy football rankings, but I am trying to add him everywhere. The Cardinals lost Hopkins and have only added a third round WR to improve that spot. Hollywood Brown, Rondale Moore, and Greg Dortch are all small speedy WRs, lacking the height and weight to muscle opponents in the end zone. McBride’s only competition at TE is Zach Ertz who is 32 years old and is coming off a major knee injury. McBride could easily be the second target on this team behind Brown and this team will be playing from behind a lot! I realize he didn’t do much his first year, but that is normal for TEs. While your leaguemates are getting excited about rookie TEs, pivot and acquire McBride. He could easily jump into the top 10 in TE rankings after a few good weeks.

~Sheldon Hand @DynastyHoser

Startup ADP: 13.10, TE18

Buy for: Michael Mayer or Sam LaPorta

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With the recent acquisition of DeAndre Hopkins, Treylon Burks’ dynasty stock has taken a dip. This creates a buying window for a talented WR with first-round draft capital. Burks will see a high percentage of snaps and more efficient targets with a true WR1 on the other side of the field. If the Titans do not make the playoffs, a highly likely scenario, then a new head coach could be brought in. This should create euphoria around the offense and elevate Burks’ stock. So buy the dip in his price today and enjoy your asset’s value increase tomorrow.

~Pruthvish Patel @ThePruPatel

Startup ADP: 6.06, WR25

Buy for: Late 2024 1st/Early 2024 2nd or package him for an aging WR like Tyreek Hill

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Tua Tagovailoa is currently the QB15 in Superflex drafts, going in the 3rd round behind the likes of Anthony Richardson, Kyler Murray, and CJ Stroud. Given his talent and situation, this is egregious. Even with the multiple concussions and other injuries last season, Tagovailoa still improved upon his 2022, finishing as the QB10 among starting QBs in points per game. He threw for over 3500 yards and 25 TDs in just 13 games, so a full season would’ve placed him 4th in yards and 4th in TDs in the league in just his 3rd campaign. Of course, he’ll need to stay healthy, but with two elite, speedy WRs, a competent and speedy backfield in its own right, and an innovative playcaller, Tua will smash his QB15 dynasty fantasy football value if healthy. Get him by any means necessary before the season starts! 

~Jeremy Shulman @ff_rebel

Startup ADP: pick 3.09, QB15

Buy for: a 1st round pick, 2nd + a lesser tier QB (Carr, Goff, Love)

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Hardest Sells

Kenneth Walker is very talented dynasty fantasy football asset. Yet, it is hard to ignore the fact that the Seahawks spent a second-round pick on Zach Charbonnet and added a first round WR. Charbonnet is the more talented pass catcher, a role that Walker didn’t shine in last year. He only averaged 6.1 yards per reception and had no receiving TDs. Last year Walker had 51 attempts inside the 20, only losing 17 to the other backs. Charbonnet is the bigger back, so it is likely that he will at least split those red zone attempts with Walker. With that trio of WRs and newly paid Geno, there are now a lot of mouths to feed. Walker could replicate his rushing totals, possibly exceed them, but his TDs and receiving numbers should take a hit. I would rather have the cheaper RB option in Charbonnet. 

~Sheldon Hand @DynastyHoser

Startup ADP: 4.06, RB9

Sell for: Zach Charbonnet+ or JK Dobbins+ 

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As good as George Kittle is, now may be the last chance to trade him coming off a career-high 11 touchdown season. Kittle got hot to end the year with 7 of those 11 coming in the last 4 games of the regular season. This sell doesn’t come down to talent. It’s a combination of situation, play style, and age, all things that work against him. Kittle played the second-most run blocking snaps at the position only behind Cole Kmet, which isn’t shocking. But combine that with his work in the pass game and you have an imperfect combination. This has nothing to do with his injury history either, but 30 is quickly approaching and Father Time comes for everyone. Still, I expect Kittle to produce at a high level this current year. However, I’d start thinking about trading him away.

~Ryan Prosick @RyanPros_FF

Startup ADP: 6.04, TE5

Sell for: Dallas Goedert, Pat Freiermuth+, Treylon Burks+

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Derrick Henry is as elite as they come; however, once again, Father Time is undefeated. Henry proved he can produce when given the touches in 2022. However, he will surpass the 1800 carry cliff in 2023. In standard and points per rush attempt leagues, Henry’s value is higher. But I truly think this season the Titans experiment to see what the future of the team will yield. That means less Henry and more involvement of younger players. With the dynasty fantasy football season fast approaching, Henry’s value is the best it will be all season. Sell now!

~Pruthvish Patel @ThePruPatel

Startup ADP: 6.01, RB16

Sell for: Kendre Miller+, Khalil Herbert+, George Pickens, 2024 2nd or two 2024 3rds, 2025 2nd

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DeAndre Hopkins is the clear-cut WR1 on the Titans after his signing in Tennessee just days ago. But I’m even more out on Hopkins than I was in his terrible situation in Arizona. While the Titans are better for Hopkins in a number of ways, the situation is worse. Ryan Tannehill is a downgrade from Kyler Murray. Even if you believe it’s a neutral move, the Tennessee Derrick Henry’s and their run-first approach is far removed from Kliff Kingsbury’s air raid attack. And, with young studs wideout Treylon Burks and tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo, Hopkins has increased target competition at an advanced age with far fewer targets than were available on the Cardinals. DHop is a fine WR2 on a contending team, but I’d bet he’s more of a WR3 this season, especially if the Titans continue to pound Henry at the goal line. 

~Jeremy Shulman @ff_rebel

Startup ADP: pick 9.01, WR38

Sell for: late ‘24 1st; 2nd + young wideout (Skyy or Elijah Moore)

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While my buy for this month was a bet on talent, my sell is a bet on history. What I see with the market is that most rookie tight ends are overpriced. Since 2014, only six out of 129 rookie tight ends have averaged above 8.5 (PPR) points per game. While there are some notably excellent tight end prospects in this year’s draft class, I would instead trade some of them (Dalton Kincaid, Michael Mayer, and Sam LaPorta) because I predict them to underperform on their value this season. Trading away rookies is a move if you are optimistic and confident that your team can contend this year. Moving rookies for proven players helps provide consistent points toward your dynasty fantasy football roster throughout the season. If you are not contending, you can hold them or cash in on their value later on.

~Joe Arledge @FF_Brows

Startup ADP: Kincaid – 7.05, TE7; Mayer – 9.06, TE10; LaPorta – 10.08, TE12

Sell Kincaid for: George Kittle, Dallas Goedert, Amari Cooper, Late ‘24 first

Trade LaPorta for: Keenan Allen, Darren Waller +, Joe Mixon

Sell Mayer for: Trey McBride +, Antonio Gibson, David Montgomery, DeAndre Hopkins 

 

*startup ADP sourced from:https://bulletproofff.com/adp.html#rookies