Which players are worth buying, selling, and holding for value in dynasty fantasy football leagues?
With the 2024 NFL Draft over, we now have a better picture of some winners and losers from the draft. In my last article, I told you to sell Kyren Williams and buy Zamir White. Well, I am not saying Williams is dead in dynasty fantasy football leagues, but his stock has taken a hit. The Los Angeles Rams added Michigan RB Blake Corum in the third round of the draft. Meanwhile, Zamir White made it through the draft with only sixth round hybrid RB Dylan Laube being added. That’s a huge vote of confidence from the Las Vegas Raiders coaching staff. White’s stock continues to be on the rise.
This month we are going to take a look at the TE position in dynasty fantasy football. It is the most frustrating position to find consistency, but it’s vital for success. I had suggested buying Noah Fant in my free agents to buy article a few months back. However, with him signing back with the Seahawks, the upside might not be there. Before we get into my buy, sell and hold, let’s take a moment to mourn Michael Mayer. Alright, let’s get into this month’s article.
All fantasy points mentioned are Half-PPR scoring and come from FantasyPros.
Buy Pat Freiermuth – Pittsburgh Steelers
This month’s buy is easy. Pat Freiermuth‘s value is currently too low. This might be changing soon, however, since the Steelers did not invest a first or second round pick into a WR. They also haven’t traded for Brandon Aiyuk, which has been rumored. They did, however, draft WR Roman Wilson in the third round. There is no clear WR2 for the Steelers. That means Freiermuth could have a clear path to a hefty target share.
Freiermuth hasn’t been a consistent fantasy option to start his career. Some of that can be linked to poor QB play. His rookie year was the last year for Big Ben, and that year he averaged 7.6 fantasy points with his production coming off the back of seven TDs. The last two years he has played with Kenny Pickett, who is now a back-up QB.
The 2022 saw him average 7.8 points and finish as the TE8 in dynasty fantasy football leagues. His stock took a hit this year after finishing this year averaging 5.1 points. Russell Wilson and Justin Fields might not be a huge upgrade at QB, but both have supported top end production for their tight ends.
What History Might Show Us
Russell Wilson had some good years with Jimmy Graham. In 2016 and 2017, Graham finished as the TE4. He saw nearly 100 targets each year, but the production came differently both years. In 2016 he averaged 9.8 fantasy points while coming up just shy of 1000 yards. Then in 2017, he averaged 8.9 fantasy points, with only 520 yards. However, he proved to dominate the red zone with 10 TDs. Graham had the second-most targets on the Seahawks in both those years. I realize that Wilson is not the same QB, but without Diontae Johnson, someone is going to need to be a safety blanket for Wilson. Freiermuth has that chance.
Even if Wilson isn’t the starting, we have seen Justin Fields use Cole Kmet effectively the last few years with the Chicago Bears. Kmet wasn’t lights out, but he ended both the 2022 and 2023 season as the TE7 in dynasty fantasy football leagues. In 2022 he averaged 7.2 fantasy points, relying on seven TDs. In 2023 he averaged 8.5 fantasy points, gaining nearly 100 targets, 700 yards and six TDs.
As mentioned earlier, there isn’t much WR depth on the Steelers. Behind George Pickens is third round rookie Roman Wilson, who could take some targets away as a slot WR. Then there are a bunch of castoffs such as Van Jefferson, Denzel Mims, Quez Watkins, and Calvin Austin. You want your TE to have a shot at being a top two target – Freiermuth has that opportunity.
Freiermuth is currently ranked as the TE15 on KeepTradeCut. He has bounced around the mid-teens since the new year started. His value is right around a late 2024 second. Some players ahead of him include Kmet, David Njoku and Luke Musgrave. All of those players have significant target competition. Just above them are George Kittle and Travis Kelce. These two continue to be productive, but are aging. Freiermuth could take a big leap up the rankings with a top 10 finish this year. The price is right to acquire a potential stud.
Sell David Njoku – Cleveland Browns
David Njoku was a beast to end the 2023 season. From Weeks 14-17, he was the TE1 in fantasy football, averaging 18.3 points per game. This was the kind of production that fantasy managers had been waiting for from Njoku. The talent is there, but injuries and poor QB play seems to have always gotten in the way. He just needed old man Joe Flacco to unleash the beast inside him.
Overall, Njoku ended the year as the TE6, averaging 10 points per game. Prior to Flacco taking over in Week 13, Njoku averaged only 7.3 points per game. This was even worse in the games in which Deshaun Watson played, where he averaged an entire point less. That is concerning, as Watson will be the QB for the Browns for the foreseeable future.
Watson hasn’t had a TE with the skill set of Njoku before. In fact, the best TE Watson had was Darren Fells back in 2019, who averaged 6.9 fantasy points per game. He only had 341 yards but scored seven TDs. Maybe Watson learned something from Flacco and will utilize Njoku more, but the track record isn’t there.
Not only that, but the Browns have added to their WR core. The team has their WR1 in Amari Cooper. They also went and traded for Jerry Jeudy and then re-signed him to a hefty deal this offseason. This came after trading for Elijah Moore prior offseason and drafting Cedric Tillman in the third round in 2023. The Browns are also a team that prefers to run the ball and they should have Nick Chubb back and healthy at some point this year. Njoku will get lost in the shuffle. The consistency will not be there.
At 27 years old, Njoku has worked his way up to TE10 on KTC (KeepTradeCut). His value is around a mid-2024 second. The talent is there but the opportunity might not be. If he starts slow, any value he gained from a strong performance to end last year will be lost. I just flipped him, the 4.12, and a 2026 third for a 2025 second, Michael Mayer, and the 3.11 (Malachi Corley). I made this trade as the 3.11 came up so I knew who I was going to take.
There are a few things you can try and do if you have Njoku. If you are competing, you could trade him for Kelce or Kittle, who are both just above him in the rankings. Njoku is younger, which might appeal to some dynasty players. The other option is to flip him for guys like Evan Engram, the aforementioned Freiermuth, or Jake Ferguson. All three of these players are ranked just below Njoku, but offer more upside. Move Njoku while the iron is hot.
Hold Michael Mayer – Las Vegas Raiders
Did anyone have the Raiders taking Brock Bowers in the 2024 NFL draft? What a shocker! As I mentioned in the opening paragraph, no TE took a value hit as bad as Mayer from the draft. It’s Scott Fish Bowl season (theme this year is movies), so let’s quote Coach Reilly from The Mighty Ducks, “your not even a has-been, your a never-was.”
Mayer was drafted early in the second round last year. He averaged only 4.5 fantasy points per game and finished as the TE33. In spite of the poor performance, he peaked as the TE9 on KTC back in December. There was hope for what was going to be a breakout second year. That is, until the Raiders drafted Bowers. Mayer went from TE11 to the TE19 since the draft, and there is a good chance he continues to fall.
Mayer was hyped as the best all around TE in last year’s class. However, it was Sam LaPorta and Dalton Kincaid who stole the spotlight. Mayer saw more targets as the year went on, but he only averaged 2.8 targets per game over the 14 games he was on the field. With the addition of Bowers and the presence of Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers, it will be a challenge to improve on these numbers, but not impossible.
Why hold? Potential. Selling now would be a mistake. TEs take longer to develop. You need to show patience. After all, he is only 22 years old. Mayer is a well-rounded TE with second round draft capital. PFF ranked him as the fourth best run blocker out of last year’s TE class. Therefore, he should still get on the field. He showed in college he can be involved in the passing game. In each of his last two college seasons he went for over 800 receiving yards and scored 16 TDs over that span. The talent is there to be relevant in dynasty fantasy football leagues
It has been awhile since we have seen a dynamic TE duo. Seeing a rehash of Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski is not realistic. However, the 2016 Chargers with Antonio Gates and Hunter Henry are numbers that could be reached. Bowers will play out of the slot, which will leave the inline role open for Mayer. Gardner Minshew is an improvement over Aidan O’Connell and Jimmy G, and should be able to support multiple options.
It is hard to hold players when their stock drops. There is a chance he becomes a roster clogger. However, he’s too young and talented to be sitting on a waiver wire. Worst case scenario, he sits on your bench until he hits free agency. At that point, he will only be 26 years old and will be a top priority for a team. No one is giving you TE19 value. You might as well hold and see what the Raiders have planned for their two young TEs.
Thanks for checking out this month’s article. I wish you luck in your upcoming rookie drafts. Keep an eye out for Theo Johnson at the end of your rookie drafts. He is an athletic TE out of Penn State drafted by the New York Giants. Darren Waller has contemplated retirement and the Giants WRs, besides Malik Nabers, aren’t anything to write home about. Theo has gone late in the fourth round in both rookie drafts I have done so far. Look for next month’s article on WRs to buy, sell and hold.
Sheldon Hand
Sheldon Hand is an elementary school teacher. He started writing in 2019, and started working with The League Winners in 2021. He has been playing fantasy football for fifteen years, got into dynasty seven years ago and have become a bit obsessed.