Hallelujah! Football is officially back and in full swing. Week 1 has come and gone. With it comes a slew of dynasty fantasy football hits and misses, unexpected breakouts and injured stars.
In dynasty, it’s all about market dynamics. Who’s rising? Who’s falling? How can you take advantage of player fluctuating value? And with actual games being played and real fantasy points being scored, it’s time to find a few buys and sells ahead of week 2.
Buy Mac Jones
Full disclosure: I’m a Patriots fan, but I’m also a realist. Mac Jones isn’t a sexy dynasty QB. But that’s exactly why he’s a great buy for a contending team, especially those in need of a solid QB2 or higher-end QB3 in Superflex leagues.
Jones showed improvement in week 1, nearly leading the Pats to a comeback victory over the defending NFC Champion Philadelphia Eagles. If not for a footwork issue by rookie Kayshon Boutte, he may have actually completed the deed and upset one of the best teams in football.
Last season, Mac struggled mightily, finishing as the QB23 in 6 point per passing touchdown leagues. However, the Pats lack of a true offensive coordinator in 2022 was an issue in 2022. It also showed itself in ugly fashion on the field, with Jones posting more than 20 fantasy points just 4 times.
In week 1, Jones bested 30 points. His performance was better than any he had in 2022. He threw 3 touchdowns for just the fourth time in his career. He finished as the QB2 overall on the week. And he didn’t against an all-world Eagles D with not much of a weapons upgrade from last season.
Offensive Coordinator Bill O’Brien looks to already be making a difference in New England, and Jones is good enough to execute a great plan. With 54 pass attempts unlikely to be the norm week-in and week-out, it’s still encouraging to see Jones thrive and complete the most passes in his career to-date.
And this… this is a big boy throw:
Mac Jones holding the safeties with his eyes, standing in knowing he's gonna get flattened, and threading the needle on 3rd & 12 with the game on the line pic.twitter.com/PETSLVwTmF
— Taylor Kyles (@tkyles39) September 12, 2023
I don’t love Jones as a long-term asset in dynasty fantasy football, but I could be wrong. He’s clearly got the chops to be serviceable, and the Patriots O is finally headed in the right direction. Buy him for lower than you should – a solitary first-rounder could be enough – and enjoy the steady production of a mid-tier QB2 who can produce in a pinch.
Sell Raheem Mostert
Everyone is looking for a running back in dynasty fantasy football. And, with JK Dobbins sadly done for another year, the need already exists and will continue to grow.
Enter the current starting running back for the dynamic Miami Dolphins: Raheem Mostert. While the Dolphins likely expect Jeff Wilson Jr. back after the season’s first month and De’Von Achane back even sooner than that, Mostert is still seen as the undisputed lead back until proven otherwise. And, I guess he is. But his RB18 finish in week 1 should have been much stronger given how much yardage the Phins racked up through the air.
Mostert’s current issue is that he’s well behind Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle in the pecking order. Add in that the Dolphins have a much better supporting cast at wide receiver headlined by Braxton Berrios and Mostert’s two targets aren’t that surprising. And when the explosive Achane and reliable Wilson return, it’s going to get even messier.
Take a look at which teams in your league were relying on Dobbins. See who might view their RB room as shaky after disappointing weeks from Cam Akers, Rachaad White, and Dameon Pierce. If someone believes in Mostert enough to pay out a 2nd or even two 3rds, I’m jumping on that value all day. I’d also consider throwing him into deals as a sweetener to get them across the line.
Don’t be left holding the bag on the 31-year-old Mostert in dynasty fantasy football. He’s a sell.
Buy Hayden Hurst
Hayden Hurst had a monster breakout performance in week 1. In dynasty fantasy football, we know that means his price just went up. But I don’t care. In a league where tight end is hit or miss, give me all the number 1 team target earners at the position. And now we can add Hurst to the list.
Terrace Marshall and Miles Sanders each had six targets in week 1. Hurst had seven. But more impressive than his leading share was his 5/41/1 line. Jonathan Mingo looked great as well, even with the presence of a hobbled Adam Thielen, but given the names I’ve already dropped in this paragraph, it should be clear why Hurst is a buy.
There’s not much to overcome in terms of pass catchers here. I expect the number one overall pick to steadily improve as well. That is, if he’s worth the capital the Carolina Panthers spent on him. That should mean a steady flow of targets to Hurst, which comes with a reasonable floor at the position.
And, it’ll mean Hurst continues to see schemed looks like this:
Many fantasy managers don't realize how much Hayden Hurst will be involved in the Panthers' passing game.
Carolina has upcoming matchups against the Saints, Seahawks and Vikings. pic.twitter.com/99M7qHKAv9
— Moody (@EricNMoody) September 10, 2023
I’m not expecting massive outings each and every week. But week 1’s PPR TE2 will has many more weekly top-end finishes in his range of outcomes. At the cost of a second-round pick on a contender that’s a TE away, I’d make the investment in Hurst. He’s already looking like this year’s Dalton Schultz.
Sell Michael Thomas
It’s unlikely that you’re excited about Michael Thomas this season, but his week 1 line of 5 receptions for 61 yards on 8 targets definitely raised some eyebrows. He looked pretty good all things considered, but there’s plenty working against him now that he’s finally back on the field.
First, Chris Olave has taken over as the New Orleans Saints undisputed WR1. Olave earned 10 targets this past weekend, turning them into 8 catches for 112 yards. As the clear number one in this offense, Olave isn’t going away any time soon.
Next, there’s wide receiver Rashid Shaheed. Many believed Shaheed’s utilization would improve over last season, but 6 receptions for 89 yards and a score was wholly unexpected. Out of the gate, Shaheed proved to be dynamic enough to deserve more looks, even in a close game.
Juwan Johnson even saw 5 targets in this one. The starting tight end will continue to be a thorn in Thomas’ side all season. His rapport with Derek Carr is real. The reports we’ve heard all offseason have proven nothing but true thus far.
And, finally, the proverbial elephant in the WR room, RB Alvin Kamara will be back in action by week 4 after serving a three-game suspension. Kamara is a target machine out of the backfield, and Carr will check down to his backs. Additionally, he’ll see plenty of schemed looks that should eat into Thomas’ share.
With all this going against him, Thomas is an easy sell for me in dynasty fantasy football. I’d take a 2nd and run with it, but it might be easier to try and flip him to a contending team as a vet with the promise of consistent production. In that case, I’d look to grab a younger, unproven asset. Michael Wilson and a third-round pick is likely possible.
Each week this season, I’ll be providing you with some of the hottest buys and sells in dynasty to help you gain an edge in your leagues. Check back weekly to see who is trending and make the right deals to help you build the dynasty fantasy football team of your dreams.
Jeremy Shulman
Jeremy is an avid football fan from New York who lives in Amsterdam and roots for the Patriots. This walking contradiction has played fantasy football for over than 20 years. He is now a Senior Dynasty Writer at The League Winners. In his spare time, he writes and edits professionally.