I went to London this past weekend. It was a great trip. But what was supposed to be a Saturday West Ham/Newcastle match followed by a Sunday of Bills/Jags quickly became more complicated than sorting through my dynasty fantasy football teams from another country.
Due to West Ham’s Europa League involvement, their Saturday games are flexed to Sundays to accommodate their extra, in-season game responsibilities. While that makes plenty of sense for European football, my friend and I are not European football fans. The match moved to Sunday. Both games were now scheduled to begin at the same day and time.
So, like any self-respecting sporting fellows, we went to both. An extra-time West Ham goal made for an exhilarating 2-2 tie, and we even managed to squeeze in the 4th quarter of the Bills game, where they almost made a triumphant comeback. But, given what we were keeping tabs on both games at once, we didn’t miss much action.
With a wild weekend in the books for me and my fantasy teams, the dynasty fantasy football landscape is starting to sort itself out. Jonathan Taylor is back, Breece Hall is BACK and much is falling into place as it should be, with a few added surprises.
So, given the state of the state, who are my biggest buys and sells ahead of week 6? Let’s get into it…
Buy Chris Olave
Chris Olave has had two down weeks in a row. In fact, if it wasn’t for a touchdown, he’d have his managers in panic mode by now.
To put this difficult two-week stretch into perspective, Olave’s had 11 targets but managed just 3 receptions for 16 yards. The touchdown this weekend was a godsend that may have shut an otherwise wide-open buy window.
But there’s still room to buy, especially given the lingering injuries to both Olave himself and his quarterback Derek Carr.
The biggest cause for fantasy concern, Carr’s AC joint injury has seemingly sapped his downfield passing abilities. He’s thrown 63 passes and just just 310 total yards combined in weeks 4 and 5. There’s also the issue of air yards for the injured duo:
Chris Olave Weeks 4-5, 2023
Air Yards: 248
Actual Yards: 16 pic.twitter.com/dNokK44UzE— Tyler Buecher (@TylerBuecher) October 9, 2023
But what’s certain is that both will heal. Carr’s shoulder will improve with time. Olave’s lower body will get right. The Carr/Olave connection will soon be back to averaging 10 targets and 100 yards per game. They accomplished as much consistently in Weeks 1 through 3.
Further, the New Orleans Saints schedule is exceptional. They face Houston, Jacksonville, Indy, Chicago and Minnesota over their next five. Their schedule after their Week 11 bye is also pretty nice. Get Olave now while there’s a chance to grab him. That buy window will slam shut sooner than you think.
I’m more than okay sending a late 1st on a contending squad that can afford to wait out the injuries. If I’m sending a back, someone like Saquon Barkley might net me Olave+ if the manager is especially RB needy.
Sell Logan Thomas
Logan Thomas has been great this season – when he’s been on the field. In his four healthy games – including one where he left early due to a scary head injury – he’s finished as the PPR TE11, 10, 22 and 4.
For a guy you likely picked up on waivers, even in some deeper dynasty fantasy football leagues, that’s a good return on investment.
But Thomas has been producing with the best of them thus far, even as the Washington Commanders offense has undergone a transition. Jahan Dotson and Terry McLaurin have often taken a backseat to the likes of Curtis Samuel and Dyami Brown. And with Antonio Gibson doing little most weeks, it’s been Thomas who has been the most consistent option in the passing game.
While he has the potential to be a decent, streamable tight end for you for the rest of the year, I’m still concerned about Thomas. His injury history isn’t great and his QB isn’t either. Combine these issues with how much Eric Bieniemy and Sam Howell have been spreading the ball around and scheming up tertiary options, and I’d bet Thomas is less consistent than he’s been, rest of season.
I’m looking to get a 2nd in return for Thomas in TE premium leagues, while I’d look to grab a lesser WR in the range of Dotson or Darnell Mooney. If I absolutely need Thomas, I’ll hold him, but getting out now is the move if there’s a Gerald Everett-level talent already on your roster.
Buy Gabe Davis
The most encouraging thing I saw in Week 5 was Josh Allen’s willingness to look Gabe Davis’ way in crucial situations. Down two scores late, Allen led a spirited Buffalo Bills comeback that could only be squashed by Travis Etienne running roughshod over a severely injury-depleted Bills defensive unit.
In the second half of the 4th quarter on Sunday, Davis caught 3 passes for 72 yards and a touchdown. That accounted for nearly 75% of his production on the day, at the most important moments. Allen was at his best when escaping the pocket and making throws downfield. He hit Davis for 24, 19 and 29 yarders that were all highlight-reel worthy plays.
But maybe even more encouraging than Davis’ usage late last week is the consistency of his fantasy production. Outside of Week 1, he has scored a touchdown in every game this season. He’s also averaged 72 yards per game, owning the tenth highest Average Depth of Target (aDOT, per Player Profiler) of any wideout this year. His consistency and Allen’s trust make Davis a massive buy.
With his usage in one of the league’s best offenses, Davis is a viable and likely reliable flex option every week. I’m happy to give up a 2nd round pick for him, but I’d also consider sending a hyped rookie like Rashee Rice or Jayden Reed. Those latter options could net you a little extra on top as well.
Sell Josh Jacobs
Josh Jacobs has been crushing it for his dynasty fantasy football managers over the past two weeks. He’s caught 13 balls and scored two TDs, finishing as the PPR RB5 and RB6, respectively.
But, unfortunately for Jacobs, it’s the volume that has been propping him up.
It’s not that Jacobs has lost much of anything, talent-wise. He’s still seemingly the same guy who finished as the PPR RB3 in 2022. But it’s the same old story in Vegas. A story that’s actually worse than many expected.
First, Josh McDaniels has seemingly lost the locker room. The Las Vegas Raiders pulled off an upset against the Packers last week. Still, things are far from A-OK in LV. McDaniels continues to make mistakes with personnel (letting Carr and Darren Waller walk), interpersonal relationships (aggravating Davante Adams) and general management in-game.
This is just 1 example of JMD shit in-game managing. Just listen to the angst in Lincoln Kennedy's voice. Im sure @_Murf was feeling the same way. 😂 #Raiders #RaiderNation pic.twitter.com/kNLVLqxGZo
— NYCRaider88 (@NYC_Raider88) October 10, 2023
So far, the two wins and hanging in two other close losses have bought McDaniels a little time. Still, he’s on the chopping block as early as midseason as far as I’m concerned.
Outside of coaching, the offensive line has been a real problem. The passing game has struggled with Jimmy Garoppolo constantly under duress. Last week’s output was even buoyed by a final, clock-killing drive where Jimmy G had little to do but feed Jacobs. He accrued 6 touches for 29 yards and 2 receptions in the final few minutes. Those 4.9 points accounted for 25% of his 19.9 point PPR day. The last-minute usage vaulted Jacobs to mid-range RB1 territory in week 5.
Given the situation in Vegas surrounding this anemic offense, Jacobs’ volume-based production and his 2.87 yards per carry through 5 weeks of play, I’m selling him now before he faces Bill Belichick in week 6. I’d swap for an Alvin Kamara-level talent or try and get someone like Keenan Allen. If rebuilding, he should be able to get you a mid to backend 1st. Sell now before this team implodes, and Jacobs’ fantasy value sinks with the ship!
Those are my best buys and sells ahead of Week 6. More of the same will be heading your way next week and every week. Check back in to see who is trending and to build the ultimate dynasty fantasy football team.
Jeremy Shulman
Jeremy is an avid football fan from New York who lives in Amsterdam and roots for the Patriots. This walking contradiction has played fantasy football for over than 20 years. He is now a Senior Dynasty Writer at The League Winners. In his spare time, he writes and edits professionally.