The beginning of free agency is right around the corner, and already we are seeing players being traded and released. My previous article touched on four players to buy low in dynasty fantasy football leagues. This time, we’re looking at four players to sell high. If you enjoy these pieces, make sure to shoot me a follow, or follow The League Winners for all of your fantasy football needs.
Geno Smith, QB – Seattle Seahawks
Geno Smith has become a fan favorite, and for good reason. After a disappointing start to his career, the 32-year old signal caller seems to have turned the corner. Smith finished as the QB5 in fantasy football in 2022, and was the QB8 in PPG (min. 10 games). He even re-signed with the Seahawks on a 3-year, $75M contract. Despite that, I am betting against Smith and selling him where I can in my dynasty fantasy leagues.
Smith has seemed to have found a home in Seattle. And, to be honest, the scheme fits him great. Even going back to 2021, Smith’s stats in three starts actually mirror his 2022 season. But much like a rookie can have success in his first season, having too much tape can hinder some players’ future performances instead of helping them. I believe this is the case with Geno. After all, there’s a reason Smith was a perpetual backup after his short stint starting with the NY Jets.
I believe NFL defenses will start to figure out Geno Smith. I also believe that the Seahawks offensive line will only add to that problem.
Last year, the Seahawks tied-9th for the most sacks allowed in the NFL. That could have been worse if not for Geno’s mobility, which will only decline with age. With the team cutting Gabe Jackson and potentially losing Austin Blythe in free agency, that OL could be a disaster in 2023.
This take is less about buying into stats (because let’s face it, Geno was good last year) and more about regressing to the norm. Geno could still be an asset in dynasty fantasy football leagues, but I think we saw his ceiling in 2022.
As far as trades go, Smith is easily a sell-high candidate. You can package a 2nd round pick and Geno to easily move into the 1st round. The time to sell Geno is now, before it’s too late.
D’Andre Swift, RB – Detroit Lions
When D’Andre Swift came into the league, I was in love. I’ve compared him to Austin Ekeler as far as potential goes, and even wrote highly of him as a dynasty buy a couple years ago. As much as I love Swift, it’s time for me to sell while the value is still high.
One of the biggest reasons to sell Swift is his lack of durability. When he’s on the field, he can perform. Swift was still the RB15 in PPG (min. 10 games) in 2022. The only problem is, he’s barely on the field. Swift has yet to play a full season, and despite playing more games in 2022, his snap percentage was at its lowest in his career (42%).
To be fair, the Lions gave Swift every chance to be their RB1. He started the year leading the team in snaps, before missing time with an injury. That led to Jamaal Williams taking the job and running away with it.
Swift’s durability issues will never allow him to be a true RB1 in the NFL. That will limit his upside in fantasy football leagues. Swift’s ADP is on a nose-dive, but still high enough that you can get real value for him. In startup ADP, he’s still going ahead of Josh Jacobs and Nick Chubb. Trading away Swift can still net you at minimum a 1st round draft pick. In a player-for-player trade, someone like J.K. Dobbins is also easily available to acquire for Swift.
Kenneth Gainwell, RB – Philadelphia Eagles
I’ll be honest, I love me some Kenneth Gainwell; and with Miles Sanders potentially leaving Philadelphia in free agency, the RB1 position should be Gainwell’s, right? After all, Gainwell did see a large increase in snaps during the Eagles playoff run. Despite that, I’m looking to move on from Gainwell while the cost is high.
The #Eagles are not expected to bring back Pro Bowl Running back Miles Sanders on a second contract, Ralph Vacchiano of Fox Sports notes. pic.twitter.com/gvkgY8xkoR
— MLFootball (@_MLFootball) February 28, 2023
Despite being relied on throughout the playoffs, Gainwell actually had less rushing attempts – and targets – in 2022 than he did in 2021. And, per Matthew Berry, while the Eagles like Gainwell, they prefer to utilize him at his strength as a 3rd-down RB.
Really sounds like the Eagles will try to get themselves a true RB1, according to @MatthewBerryTMR.
“They really like Kenneth Gainwell in his third down passing role but that's about it.”
Makes me think either a signing/trade or drafting one on day 1/2. pic.twitter.com/a1WxzpoiTQ
— Sean (@SeanTalksEagles) March 6, 2023
I believe that Kenneth Gainwell will receive more work than he did in 2022. That doesn’t mean I believe he will become the RB1 on the Eagles, or a RB1 in fantasy football. Gainwell is a Day 3 RB who has shown explosiveness, but not enough to showcase himself with the potential of being a true bell-cow.
As I said at the beginning, I love Kenneth Gainwell. But I also know that when fantasy analysts are riding a train one way, it’s best to go the opposite direction. Gainwell’s ADP in dynasty fantasy football is increasing daily, as is his best ball ADP. Now is the time to sell Gainwell before his value plateau’s yet again.
Biggest risers in The Big Board (non-rookie) from tournament release until now:
5. Terrace Marshall 🚀 20.4
4. Sam Howell 🚀 25.8
3. Kenneth Gainwell 🚀 27.4
2. Skyy Moore 🚀 31.6
1.Who's number 1?
Hint: He's a WR
— Underdog Fantasy (@UnderdogFantasy) March 9, 2023
Calvin Ridley, WR – Jacksonville Jaguars
To be honest, writing this article has been hard, as I truly like all of these players. Originally, I had Keenan Allen here (who I believe is still a sell), until I saw Ridley’s ADP being higher than his. I understand the hype on Ridley. Prior to the 2021 season, I was drafting him everywhere. This year, I’m a little more hesitant.
Calvin Ridley had a ton of success in the Falcons offense, one that saw Matt Ryan throw over 600 times in three of Ridley’s four seasons with the team. That would have likely been 4-of-4 seasons if Ridley was not suspended in 2021 – a season he was starting off hot. In the four weeks that he played, Ridley was in the top-25 in targets each week. He led the NFL in targets in Week 4 before leaving the team for personal reasons and eventually being suspended.
Ridley is now nearly two years removed from playing in the NFL. I believe Ridley will have success in the NFL. I just don’t believe he will be worth his ADP in dynasty fantasy football leagues.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have a lot of talent on offense with Travis Etienne, Christian Kirk, Evan Engram and Zay Jones. There’s a lot more players to spread the ball around to than when Ridley was only competing for targets with Julio in Atlanta. He also doesn’t have the extra luxury of having a player like Julio drawing coverage away from him.
Calvin Ridley’s value continues to rise, as he’s now a top-45 player in dynasty fantasy football leagues, per DLF. And truth be told, it might be better waiting to trade him until we get closer to the season as that number could potentially continue to rise.
This is a take that I hope I’m completely wrong about, but it’s hard for me to envision Ridley returning to form this season. In some dynasty leagues, I’ve already seen Ridley being moved for 1st round draft picks. Given his current trade value, I’d rather take a chance on a younger player with high upside than a soon-to-be 29-year old in a loaded passing attack coming back from a two-year layoff.
