After a down year in 2022, Najee Harris has become the perfect buy low running back in fantasy football.
Why Najee Harris?
Najee Harris is an interesting case when it comes to fantasy football. In what was considered to be a dominant rookie season in PPR formats, the 2022 season was more disappointing. A lingering foot injury and poor overall offensive play for the first half of the season seems to be all that is remembered of Harris’ sophomore campaign.
Najee didn’t return to his rookie year production in the second half of the season, but he had five top-15 finishes in his last nine games (with a RB3 finish in Week 11).
Notable Reasons and Expected Improvements
Harris is a buy low candidate in fantasy leagues for a number of reasons. For starters, his volume in the Steelers offense. Harris has had over 300 touches in each of his first two seasons, and that doesn’t seem to be changing anytime soon – even with the addition of Jaylen Warren.
There aren’t many opportunities to buy a workhorse at Harris’ current price. Don’t forget, a bolstered offensive line can do wonders for a RB. That’s likely to happen in this year’s draft, with the Steelers projected to add more depth to the OL.
Harris is also a proven pass catching back. He’s had over 100 receptions through his first two seasons, though he did see his receptions go from 74 to 41 from ’21 to ’22.
Pittsburgh is a team that cleary wants to the run the ball. Whether it’s using a first round pick on Najee Harris, signing two starting guards in free agency, or spending the draft process standing in front of the likes of Parris Johnson and Dawand Jones – two absolute maulers in the run game.
Concerns and Overcoming A Down Season
While age could be a concern, at 25 years old, you should be buying in Harris’ prime years; but buying Harris would not be in the faith of a rebuild. Najee’s touches shouldn’t significantly decrease. In fact, it has potential to increase with an improved offense.
The Steelers offense was bad in 2022. But in 2023, the team could see a bounce-back. This year the Steelers will play what could be a rather easy schedule for running backs – paired with division rivals losing key defensive pieces.
Harris is destined for a bounce-back season. A low yards per carry is not only indicative of a running back, but also his offensive line. There were times early in the season when Najee missed holes, but again, the turnaround in the second half of the year should have more people excited for future production and improved efficiency.
If you do decide to buy Harris, having Jaylen Warren as a safety valve can help cover your bases. With that said, buying a workhorse has never been this easy. Now is the best time to buy before the Steelers offense runs through Harris effectively. Najee’s value continues to drop, and is likely to do so until the NFL draft.
What we saw in 2022 could realistically be Najee’s floor. I won’t say that he may be RB1 overall, or even have the same success he had as a rookie. But if his floor is the RB14 in PPR, that seems like the easiest way to cash in on a low end RB1/high end RB2.
