Bonjour, Mesdames et Messieurs! With most of the NFL’s free agency period over, it is time for us to focus on predicting outcomes for the 2023 Fantasy Football season. We are sitting and waiting for the NFL draft. Evaluating NFL draft prospects is a significant contributor to fantasy football success. In particular, identifying players to avoid when evaluating NFL draft prospects for potential fantasy football success. With that, here is my, ‘Do Not Draft‘ list.
Typically, the players on my do not draft list are projected first-round picks in a fantasy football rookie drafts. What I noticed about the majority of NFL scouts and general managers is that they tend to overvalue some 1st round prospects due to athleticism and public perception, rather than focusing on the actual skill of a specific person for their respected position.
For total transparency, the two players on my do not draft list last year were Drake London and Treylon Burks. Before I break down the players on my list for the 2023 season, I will explain why I placed Mr. London and Mr. Burks on the list.
Why Treylon Burks & Drake London?
I’m not saying I was right about Burks and London. Right or wrong is based on the expectations of the individual fantasy football manager. So, I’ll let you decide. I’m simply explaining my thought and evaluation processes.
I have an extensive evaluation process for the WR positional group, where I rate each prospect on 22 attributes. After developing my scouting profile score for a particular person, my evaluation becomes more simplistic. First, ‘does the person make the game look easy’? Secondly, ‘does the person make the game easier for their coaches and teammates’?
The simple answer is No for both Burks and London.
Treylon Burks
The glaring negative aspects I saw from Mr. Burks were limited route running, a lateral coordinator, and lateral quickness. Most of his success came from moving straight, with limited opportunities to move laterally. You rarely saw him in route concepts where he had to start/stop/start. In those limited opportunities, he could have been more successful.
These limitations make the job harder for offensive coaches. Instead of calling plays and trusting Burks to get open, they have to scheme him open to look right about drafting Burks in the first round. He isn’t an Alpha WR if the coaching staff needs to manufacture touches for him to succeed. It will not generate trust between a WR and the coaching staff. The most important thing coaches value is trust.
The Keen Observer Posse (KOP) element was a massive part of my consideration not to draft Burks. Last year, I wrote an article about the potential conflict between the Titans’ GM and head coach. Remember, expectations are the reason for frustration.
Last season, ex-Titans GM Jon Robinson traded away A.J. Brown to go with a cheaper version of A.J. Brown; at least, that was the thought process of the GM. I figured the pressure for Treylon Burks to become the next A.J. Brown for the Titans would create an uncomfortable environment between Burks, Mike Vrabel, and the GM. I predicted correctly. I don’t think it was a coincidence that Jon Robinson was fired after the Eagles game where A.J. Brown torched the Titans.
Now, Treylon Burks has zero allies in the front office and coaching staff. We can expect the new General Manager, Ran Carthon, to draft another WR to make up for last year’s mistake.
Drake London
The reasoning is different from Burks. I’ll start with the KOP. Before Mr. London’s Pro Day, he was already on my do not draft list, but opting out of the 40-yard dash was just confirmation. When a person receives criticism, the natural thought and action are to prove the doubters wrong. London received a lot of negative coverage over his inability to separate and his top-end speed. When he decided not to run, it led me to believe he had something to hide.
We will transition to London’s ability as a WR. The alarming thing I witnessed was Stanford’s CB Kyu Blu Kelly, currently PFF’s 132nd-ranked 2023 NFL Draft prospect, getting the best of Drake London for most of the game. A consensus ranked WR1 can’t get dominated by 5th round prospect.
It wasn’t that he couldn’t separate; it was about him maintaining the separation. Most people who liked Drake London’s game confused his lateral coordination – aka wiggle – with lateral quickness. Lateral quickness and speed allow a WR to maintain or increase separation. Drake London is great at creating the initial break, but his lack of athleticism will enable DBs to recover much quicker than most NFL WRs. QBs have little margin of error when forced to throw it to London. He’s making the game harder for his teammates even though he has some skill. For reference:
Drake London’s Rookie Season Statistics
- Average Cushion — 7 Yards (T-10th among NFL WRs)
The distance (in yards) measured between a WR/TE and the defender they’re lined up against at the time of snap on all targets. - Average Separation — 2.5 Yards (T-13th worst among NFL WRs)
The distance (in yards) measured between a WR/TE and the nearest defender at the time of catch or incompletion. - Average Targeted Air Yards — 10.8 yards
The average passing air yards per target for the receiver, by measuring the yards downfield at the time of all passing attempts that the receiver is the target. This stat indicates how far down the field they are being targeted on average. - % Share of Team’s Air Yards — 32.7% (14th best among NFL WRs)
The sum of the receiver’s total intended air yards (all attempts) over the sum of his team’s total intended air yards. Represented as a percentage, this statistic represents how much of a team’s deep yards the player account for.
The advanced statistics equate to the WR version of the 2-down thumper at the RB position that requires volume to be relevant. If I draft a WR in the early portion of the 1st round, I need more skill; where I can trust he will see the ball no matter the talent around him. Last season, Drake received a lot of opportunities out of necessity, not due to his actual skill. We can expect the Falcons to address the WR position again. A healthy Kyle Pitts will also cut into Drake’s production big time.
Let’s move toward the future and who’s on my do not draft list for 2023.
Do Not Draft List – 2023
Here are the players I’m willing to let other managers draft. Roster spots are just as valuable as drafting and trading for value. Even if you draft a player that fell to you – a value pick – it means nothing if they become roster cloggers later.
Let’s say you drafted Zach Wilson or Trey Lance late in 1st or early 2nd round in a Super Flex (SF) league prior to the strat of the 2022 season. You just wasted a roster spot; their value could be better now based on their current ADP and expectations.
I try to avoid that as much as possible when creating my do not draft list. I want everyone on my roster to have significant value to make blockbuster deals more manageable.
Will Levis
I wrote an extensive breakdown of Will Levis’s game and how he reminds me of Jake Locker more than Josh Allen.
Reasons:
- Throwing Motion — constantly on his toes, throwing arm angle is less than 90 degrees. He will likely need more time to resolve his mechanics.
- Lousy Pocket Presence — leaves clean pockets. When Mr. Levis moves in the pocket, he either moves into pressure or runs into his OL.
- Misses layups consistently — makes the game harder than it should be. Levis makes the easy look hard; and makes the complex look hard.
- He played in Pro Style offense for two years — this is negative because there isn’t any room for improvement. He knows the modern-day NFL offense, and he still played horribly.
Jordan Addison
I like Jordan Addison’s game, but this is about expectations. He’s more of NFL 4th-round prospect Amon-Ra St. Brown than a clear 1st-round prospect. Addison is an intelligent, great, slot WR with good hands. I’ll let someone draft Jordan Addison and wait for the disappointment. Then I will be right there to trade for him. Reasons:
- Yards After Catch / Reception — 7.0 (T-78th)
- Missed Tackles Forced — 6 (T-301st)
- Avg. Depth of Target — 10.7 (T-315th)
- 10-yard split — 1.56
- Jordan Addison vs. Utah’s CB Clark Phillips III — Clark Phillips III won the matchup. Jordan Addison beat Clark on an in-breaking route (Dig) that took 5 seconds to develop and still didn’t generate YAC on the play. In another play, Jordan won a rep because Phillips fell. The rest of Jordan’s success was scheme related, manufactured. I want to rely on something other than that with my 1st round pick.
My reasonings for being out on Addison at cost, are very similar to why I was out on London. When evaluating TEs and WRs, I put a lot of stock in their performance after the catch. Addison’s weakness is YAC; you will see him get tackled by the first would-be tackler constantly. Mind you, he’s playing with Caleb Williams and an offensive genius in Lincoln Riley.
Quentin Johnston
If you like Courtland Sutton and want a variation of Courtland Sutton’s production, you will be happy and should draft Quentin Johnston. When watching Johnston, he reminds me a lot of Sutton. It goes back to expectations; I wouldn’t have drafted Sutton in the 1st round, and I won’t be drafting Johnston there, either. Reasons:
- Best when running movement routes (shallow crossers, verticals, posts, overs). Coaches can’t trust Mr. Johnston to run routes where he must sink his hips.
- Doesn’t High Point the Ball — Size and length are good, but it doesn’t matter if the WR doesn’t use it. Johnston’s inability to track down the ball well keeps him from High Pointing passes.
- Drops — 11.8% drop rate
- Contested Catches — Big WRs face many more opportunities to make contested catches. You can’t trust Johnston to win 50/50 balls. Only 8 Contested catches (T-117th)
A WR drafted in the 1st round of the NFL Draft must be scheme-proof. Furthermore, his weaknesses can’t be so bad that he will cause his team to lose games. The NFL is more about not losing the game than going out there winning the game. Johnston’s playing time is significantly limited because his presence will cause his team to lose some games. I’m not trying to be mean or disrespectful. I’m stating what I see and trying to predict the future. Sometimes, what I see could be more pleasant.
Darnell Washington
If I were an NFL GM, I would draft Darnell Washington in the 1st round. He’s more valuable as an NFL TE than a fantasy TE. Reasons:
- He is more like the 6th OL. He reminds me of Mercedes Lewis. Lewis was used more for his blocking prowess than his receiving ability.
- Post-up weapon — Separation and YAC is still king. Washington falls into a different category.
Mr. Washington’s Relative Athletic Score (RAS) score was 9.87 out of 10; he has the athleticism to succeed in the passing game. But the film tells a different story. Blocking keeps a TE on the field, but if a TE lacks lateral quickness and agility to get open, it doesn’t matter. There’s zero twitch in Mr. Washington’s game.
Luke Musgrave
We are looking at another Mike Gesicki scenario; more of an athlete or WR than an actual TE. Reasons:
- Blocking — trust. Trust is what gets a player on the field and stays. According to PFF, Musgrave is one of the worst blocking TEs in this draft. Mr. Gesicki was similar when he was coming out of Penn State.
- Senior Bowl performance — Mr. Musgrave received several positive reports, but the words are fool’s gold. It would be best not to fall for the banana in the tailpipe. In one specific piece, people fell in love with Musgrave reaching over 20 MPH and weighing 255 pounds. The MPH tracking requires more nuance. The advanced analysis never mentions how quickly a person gets to 20, 15, 10, or 5 MPH. Football success is mostly about how fast you start, stop and move laterally. It is a huge difference when one player gets to 20 MPH in less than 2 seconds, and the other gets to 20 MPH over 3 seconds. Even though he has elite athletic testing, he had only one good rep in 1-vs-1 practices for the entire Senior Bowl practice – he lost the majority. In 1-vs-1 practices, the pass-catchers have the advantage – yet he was still losing. There’s smoke, and I won’t draft him to see the fire.
Top-8 fastest (MPH) players clocked during Senior Bowl practices (h/t @ZebraTechnology)
21.65 CB Darius Rush
21.22 CB Jakorian Bennett
21.15 WR Trey Palmer
20.24 WR Tre Tucker
20.19 RB Tyjae Spears
20.16 WR Tank Dell
20.12 LB Isaiah Land
20.05 TE Luke Musgrave (at 255 lbs !!!)— Dane Brugler (@dpbrugler) February 3, 2023
Conclusion
Fantasy football is about taking calculated risks and, most importantly, avoiding mistakes. One way to avoid mistakes is to trust your eyes. Other people’s perceptions and athletic testing can create more errors for you. Significantly, other people’s perceptions can guide you to the wrong place. When listening to other people, you must remember their perspective is limited because no one has enough time to perform a deep dive on every person going into the NFL, or already in the NFL.
KOP comes in and resolves the time issue. The KOP does a great job of identifying the correct perspective quickly and efficiently. Trust the process; the keen observer of the human experience can live in the future.
I hope I was helpful and insightful in identifying players to avoid in the 2023 Rookie Draft.
If you have any questions regarding my comments, please don’t hesitate to contact me on Twitter. Thank you for your time and support, and have a good day. Stay with us at The League Winners for more fantasy news, or find us on Twitter.
