Each week of the season, I’ll be bringing you the dynasty trade review. Hopefully, this article will feature a dynasty fantasy football trade I personally make each week. But, with the market and life the way it is, it’s possible I don’t make a move every single week, despite playing in 19 leagues.
But, thankfully, I made two this past week so far, so I will spare you from discussing my trade of a very early 2nd round pick for Hayden Hurst and Skyy Moore in a 1QB, non-tight end premium league. Is it an overpay? Maybe, but I’ll save that one for next week if something else doesn’t get done. Spoiler alert: something else will probably get done.
But I’ll do my best to outline the trades I make and break them down in an objective way – as much as that’s possible. Also, I’ll provide a poll I’ve run on X (formerly Twitter) and some trade value using a couple of different calculators to offer a holistic view of the deal.
So, enough of that, let’s have a look at what I was able to put together ahead of week 2 and how it’s already paying off for me. Let’s get into it.
The Team
First, I’ve gotta set the stage. This team has been rebuilding since the startup, just an offseason ago. The league went trade crazy in the draft, defining clear competitors by round 5. So, I decided to pivot and grab up pick value where I could. Since two squads were already collecting 2023 picks, I opted to grab 2024s. And, when I say this league went trade crazy, you can just look at my draft capital to know that’s the case.
But after an initial season of making moves, I was looking at this starting squad after week 1:
And, hey, I was very happy with this team. Josh Allen and Justin Fields are studly QBs for a superflex team. Mac Jones and Anthony Richardson are amazing depth at the position, too. My RB room needs work, but they performed well in week 1. Even Zach Ertz, Pat Freiermuth and others have me comfortable enough at tight end. But the real draw for this squad, as with many of my dynasty squads, is its receiver corps.
I was looking at DeVonta Smith, Tee Higgins and Chris Olave as long term WRs plays while Gabe Davis, Darnell Mooney and Donovan Peoples-Jones have enough upside to hit. The good news is, I’m still holding these guys, while adding a stud at the top of the pecking order.
The Trade
On the surface, this might be a big win for my side, but it’s important to consider that there is a near slam dunk 1.01 included here. One of those 1sts is a shoe-in to be top 3 anyway. The other is likely a mid 1st. The team in question really could go either way.
But, with this deal, I vaulted my way into top-tier status in the league, laying waste to the playoff hopes of fringe contenders after just one week. However, given the state of my team, I’ll need to do a little more work to shore up my flex and make a run.
The Take
It was hard to deal such a high 1st round pick, but certainly that’s the price if you want one of the best QBs in the fantasy game. And, stacking him with his number one option – along with his number 2 already on my squad – it’s a price worth paying.
AJ Brown immediately becomes my WR1. My team also benefits from two top-12 WR options from a year ago, even if they’re on the same NFL team. This also bumps Olave down to my third (or second) WR spot and Higgins into my flex. Given the state of my RBs, that’s very helpful. Also, Pacheco can be another serviceable rotational back as a weekly flex play.
But the real get here is, of course, Jalen Hurts. Hurts is a superflex team’s dream, and he proved why once again on Thursday night. With Hurts and Allen going weekly, I’ll be tough to beat. And, with Fields and Mac sitting on the bench, one becomes trade bait to dramatically improve my team once again.
Things are looking up, even if I gave up a ton of future value to grab Ws now. But, then again, either you’re contending for ‘ships or you’re not. I’ve officially thrown my hat in the ring with this deal and should enjoy a nice season.
Also, in case you’re wondering, the team on the other end of this one has now moved a lot of his highest scoring players and is now primed to rebuild with three ‘24 1sts to his name. Including his own, it’s possible he now owns the 1.01 and the 1.02 in next year’s rookie draft. Oh, and he’s also got Anthony Richardson, who looked great in week 1.
This is what we call a win-win, folks.
The Twitter-verse
In case you don’t follow me on Twitter, which is highly likely, I post every dynasty fantasy football trade I make for some consensus feedback. Often the results are a small sample of takes on the deal, but it’s still nice to get a sense of how the community feels, one way or the other.
To be sure, I’ve lost my fair share of deals. But the X-ers (still hard to get used to that) seemed to like this one for me. Here are the results:
Again, the sample here is undeniably small. However, it’s clear about ¾ of respondents would take the deal given my situation. Of course, info given on these deals is never enough to process the entire move. You have to be in it yourself to fully understand the depth of the decision-making involved in trades that impact your team and league. That said, I feel better giving up the value I did knowing that many would do the same.
The Market
I tried to find a ‘T’ word for the above subtitle. It didn’t work out. We move on.
Market trends are incredibly difficult to capture with an algorithm. But, it’s important to try a couple of calculators to see how it’s all shaking out in the wash. After all, dynasty fantasy football is a game predicated on identifying market fluctuations and acting quickly before the rest of the actors catch up.
For this particular trade, the dynasty fantasy football market didn’t matter too much on my end, though Richardson’s debut certainly helped my cause. That being said, let’s plug this in and see where it gets us.
Good ‘ol KTC has this as a significant W for my side. Again, I’m not advocating the reliance on any trade calculator to assess value. However, this seems pretty fair, even if the values on AJB and Isiah Pacheco might be a little inflated. I think Richardson will be a fantasy superstar, so his value looks solid. And, if dude ends up with Caleb Williams with the pick I sent him, he’s in business. Again, I think this deal works for both sides.
The DynastyGM tool from Dynasty Nerds is also a tremendous resource. I highly recommend the subscription if you own plenty of dynasty fantasy football teams like I do. However, as with everything else, it’s just a couple of tools that offer pieces to the puzzle. For me, the League Analyzer helps me see where I stand relative to my league and determine if I’m all in or out for the current season. But, this trade calculator offers another take, and it’s got my side by a good margin for both contenders and rebuilders.
With that said, I disagree with how lopsided the values are here. The “Abstract” 1st rounder values hedge a ton on the numbers. For example, I’d value AJB at two 1sts (or maybe even slightly less), so something is off with the lower values of the picks here. Especially when we consider that its a very early 1st and a mid 1st, this is much closer than it appears.
And if we look up other recent Hurts for Richardson deals – which is basically what this deal is – we see that the value fluctuates but it’s about what you’d expect. We all hope Richardson can become Hurts, but getting other top dynasty pieces along with that hope is what gets these deals done.
Bulletproofff.com offers yet another look at some recent Hurts for Richardson trades. A few of the same deals are here, but it’s a bit more comprehensive. If you want Hurts badly in dynasty fantasy football, consider sending Richardson and another QB or high-end asset in return.
The Terminus
We found a ‘T’ word. That’s terrific.
This trade is a good one for both a contender and a team in rebuild mode. Especially rebuilders in need of picks, it’s a nice deal to offer if you are looking to upgrade at QB. On the other end, getting Hurts’ insane point totals off your bench – he looked like his normal, elite self this Thursday, rushing for two TDs and throwing for another – might be a good move. If you can secure Richardson and two high-end 1sts in the process, go for it.
Join me every week to break down dynasty trades I make. Hopefully I can do enough work during the week to get something out each week. If not, I’ll find a way to offer up some trade fodder for review. And, until next week, good luck with your deals and happy dynasty fantasy football trading.
Jeremy Shulman
Jeremy is an avid football fan from New York who lives in Amsterdam and roots for the Patriots. This walking contradiction has played fantasy football for over than 20 years. He is now a Senior Dynasty Writer at The League Winners. In his spare time, he writes and edits professionally.