Dynasty Offseason Strategy: Dead Period Begins

The fantasy football season has come and gone, championships have been won and lost, and if you’re anything like me, you’re breathing a sigh of relief. A nearly five-month in-season grind is over. No more lineups, waivers, or Monday Night Football sweats. Hopefully, you took down some titles to make it all worth it. Now, as the NFL playoffs begin, a dynasty dead period begins, and offseason strategy is as important as ever.

From now until the NFL free agency cycle heats up, your leagues are likely going to go quiet. Taking some time off from leagues can be a good thing. Letting burnout build up now is not a good way to become a League Winner in 2024. But it would be unwise to check out from now until March. Dynasty values are still changing rapidly. Between startup drafts, taking over orphan teams, your upcoming rookie drafts, and crafting trades, there are several ways to exploit the dynasty market in the dead of winter.

Rookie Fever is Coming

If you’re still locked in, it’ll come as no surprise to hear the 2024 Superflex rookie class is already building up a head of steam. Currently, there are several quarterback prospects projected in the top half of the NFL first round. Multiple receivers are projecting to get very good NFL draft capital. 2024 first-round picks are looking very valuable as of the writing of this article. The class does lack elite running back prospects. That may be the only thing keeping the hype train in the station right now.

I have mixed feelings about what the actionable advice is as to whether we should be buying or selling rookie picks in the dead period. Conventional wisdom about dynasty offseason strategy says to buy rookie picks now. Their value will spike during the NFL Draft and rookie fever will reach a peak. But the class currently projects to get very high draft capital. So it might be smart to pump the brakes on that idea. Fatigue will likely set in eventually. The group of six quarterbacks with legitimate NFL hype right now may shrink as we approach the draft. The wide receiver group will likely remain stable, but the process can be unpredictable.

If you spent 2023 collecting 2024 rookie picks, now is probably a good time to buy veterans. But it’s not necessary to go to the extremes. There will be time all offseason to buy the likes of Christian McCaffrey, Davante Adams, Aaron Rodgers, Derrick Henry, etc. Instead, now could be a good time to buy players like Brock Purdy, Jonathan Taylor, Kyler Murray, Jaylen Waddle, and others with long-term outlooks who may be to your liking. Right now, optimism is high for the 2024 rookie class. Shedding some excess 2024 draft capital may be prudent before rookie fatigue sets in and the draft landscape shifts.

On the flip side, if you’re pick-poor and want to get in on the class, now could be a good time to acquire some picks. But only if the price is right. I’m not trading a stable veteran asset to hitch my future to the promise of a class that looks good on paper right now. My advice is to tier down within positions and get 2024 picks on top. If I can trade Tyreek Hill for a player like Chris Godwin or Amari Cooper and a Superflex 1.06-1.08, I’ll take that deal. After all, the rookie could become the most valuable piece in the trade sooner than we think.

Veteran QB Crapshoot

Quarterback is king in Superflex dynasty. Or at least, that seems to be what the masses believe. The fact of the matter is that outside of the elite options, the position has been extremely volatile over the last few seasons. Players like Purdy, Tua Tagovailoa, Jordan Love, Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson, Rodgers, Kirk Cousins, and others have seen their values fluctuate to and from the extremes for all sorts of reasons. Buying quarterbacks in the dynasty offseason feels like the quickest strategy to bolster a Superflex roster. But it doesn’t come without its risks.

Justin Fields is one of the most discussed players in the NFL right now. His range of outcomes in my opinion includes becoming one of the best quarterbacks in the league next season to flaming out with a second team and seeing his dynasty value plummet. His actual price point is somewhere in between and will vary wildly depending on who you ask. If you’re playing in a portfolio, I recommend having solid exposure to Fields. If you’re playing in something like five or fewer leagues, you’re going to have to call your shot on players like Fields, Cousins, Wilson, and others. But buyer beware that you could be buying a ticking time bomb. Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen,  Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow, CJ Stroud, Lamar Jackson, and Justin Herbert are all that much more valuable considering their untouchable value insulation.