As the regular season comes to an end, we look towards players to buy-low before free agency in dynasty formats.
Now that the fantasy football season is over, we as dynasty managers look ahead to the offseason. With free agency approaching, our goal is to analyze which players have an opportunity to benefit from an expanded role in the upcoming season. We know hype trains are real in fantasy football and identifying these players before they leave the station can net us immense value. Here are five players that could positively be impacted by free agency you should try to buy-low now.
Curtis Samuel (FA)
Curtis Samuel enters free agency at 24 years old coming off a quietly impressive season. Since Week 7, Samuel has managed to finish as the WR12 in PPR leagues. Yes, a WR1. Not only did he outscore both his teammates, DJ Moore and Robby Anderson, but he also outscored Keenan Allen and Allen Robinson during that stretch.
Samuel finished as the WR24 on the season totaling 77 receptions, 851 yards and 3 touchdowns. He still managed to outscore both Moore and Anderson in fantasy points despite receiving less targets and having fewer yards. The reason? Samuel has the ability to line up anywhere on the field, including the backfield. He handled 41 rushing attempts resulting in 200 yards and 2 touchdowns with an average of 4.9 yards per attempt. This gives Samuel a relatively safe floor with an extremely high ceiling.
The assumption is that the former 2nd Rounder will test the market in March. Players with his skill set and 4.3 speed typically come with high demand. This gives Samuel an opportunity to sign with a team and see an increase in almost every receiving category. His ECR is ridiculously low, even after the season he just posted. The offseason hype for Samuel has the potential to get out of control making him a must buy low at his current value.
Current ECR: WR46
Jamaal Williams (FA)
Jamaal Williams is an interesting player entering free agency. We know the cost of acquiring a “startable” RB in fantasy isn’t cheap, however Williams has the opportunity to be just that in 2021. What makes his situation appealing is there are two scenarios in which Williams can achieve this.
Scenario 1: Aaron Jones leaves Green Bay, which would make it likely they retain Williams on a reasonable deal. This would lead to the Packers rolling out AJ Dillon and Jamaal Williams as their RBBC. Both players would see an increase in volume with Dillon handling most of the early down work and Williams in on passing downs. The Packers currently already use Williams in two-minute and no-huddle situations even with Aaron Jones on the roster.
Scenario 2: Aaron Jones stays in Green Bay which means Jamaal Williams leaves for free agency to sign with another team.
Both scenarios have Jamaal Williams receiving an uptick in volume, especially in PPR leagues. The difference between Williams and other pass-catching running backs is that Williams has proved that he can be depended on to carry the load if needed. When Aaron Jones missed Week 7, Williams had 23 touches and finished as the RB6 on the week. Week 8, he had 22 touches and finished as the RB8. Whichever scenario comes to fruition, he can essentially be had for relatively cheap to what his value could become post-free agency.
Current ECR: RB47
Van Jefferson (LAR)
Van Jefferson widely disappointed in his rookie season primarily due to being drafted by the Rams. He unfortunately entered an already crowded WR room with Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp both deservedly earning new contracts last offseason.
On top of that, the Rams are also one of the top teams in the league to line up in 12 personnel with both Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett. If that still isn’t enough, Los Angeles also had the 7th most rushing attempts in the league. These are all reasons why Van Jefferson has become a forgotten name amongst what some consider the best rookie wide receiver class we’ve potentially ever seen.
So why exactly is Jefferson a buy? Josh Reynolds and Everett are both upcoming free agents and will more than likely not be re-signed due to the Rams being $30 million over the salary cap, 5th highest according to Over The Cap. That would leave 142 vacated targets and also a chance that Los Angeles reverts back to running more 11 personnel after losing Everett. It’s easy to forget, but the Rams drafted Jefferson in the 2nd Round with full anticipation of this moment happening.
Jefferson didn’t do much in the regular season being buried on the depth chart but got the opportunity to start against Green Bay in the Divisional Round. He posted a solid 6 receptions for 46 yards and scored a touchdown. Just a sample of what he can consistently do in 2021.
Current ECR: WR76
Quintez Cephus (DET)
The Detroit Lions are in full rebuild mode as new GM Brad Holmes and new HC Dan Campbell look to hit the reset button. During this process, Detroit will lose both starting wide receivers, Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones, along with Danny Amendola, Mohamed Sanu and Jamal Agnew to free agency.
In fact, the only wide receivers that are currently signed in Detroit for 2021 are Geronimo Allison and Quintez Cephus. Allison signed a 1-year deal with the Lions last offseason but decided to voluntarily opt-out of the season due to COVID-19 concerns. This means he has yet to catch a pass in Detroit leading to a real probability that Cephus is the only WR returning for the Lions that has any chemistry with Matthew Stafford.
Cephus burst onto the dynasty scene when he got the start Week 1 and received 10 targets. Unfortunately, he cooled off very quickly and never saw more than 4 targets in any game the rest of the season. He finished his rookie campaign with 20 receptions, 349 yards and 2 touchdowns. Ironically, Kenny Golladay posted almost identical numbers finishing his injury riddled season with 20 receptions, 338 yards and 2 touchdowns in only 5 games played.
We can also assume the Lions will use a high draft pick on a wide receiver in the upcoming draft and possibly bring in another via free agency. Still, there is a great opportunity that Cephus can enter his sophomore year as a starting WR in an offense that should see heavy passing volume in 2021.
Current ECR: WR92
Tyler Johnson (TB)
Tyler Johnson was one of my favorite dynasty stashes this year. His value took a hit when he fell to Round 5 of the NFL Draft and was selected by the Buccaneers. However, don’t be fooled by his draft capital. According to Pro Football Focus, Johnson was the highest-graded wide receiver in College Football last season. His slide in the draft was entirely due to his choice to not participate in the NFL combine.
Johnson passed the eye test in limited time early in the season but with the signing of Antonio Brown, we essentially lost all hope he would produce much during his rookie season. Unfortunately, It’s possible he could see a similar role in 2021 as well. Even though Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown will become unrestricted free agents, the consensus anticipate both wide receivers returning to Tampa for another Super Bowl run. Brown on another 1-year deal and Godwin either signing a long-term contract or playing on the franchise tag.
On a positive note for Johnson’s dynasty outlook, there is just as much of a chance that either Godwin or Brown sign with a new team, opening up a prime role for Johnson to see an increase in snaps in one of the best offenses in the league.
Johnson will enter next season having just turned 23 years old and is very talented despite his draft capital. This is one of those rare cases where talent and situation are both fantastic and the player can still be acquired at a low-cost. The downside is you may have to stash him another season but the risk-reward factor is worth buying Johnson now before the window closes.
Current ECR: WR87
