With Kenyan Drake heading towards free agency, can Chase Edmonds be more than a flex option in fantasy football?
You can read my previous fantasy football dynasty profile on Rashaad Penny here.
Chase Edmonds seems to have become a decent flex play in fantasy football leagues. Starting running back Kenyan Drake will be testing free agency, so there’s an opportunity for Edmonds to finally acquire a lead back role with the Arizona Cardinals.
History
Edmonds was drafted out of Fordham University by the Arizona Cardinals in the fourth round of the 2018 NFL Draft. He put on a clinic during his time there rushing for over 6,000 yards; becoming the all-time rushing yards leader in the Patriot League’s history. He also had 900 yards receiving, showing the capability of being a dual threat running back.
He was a shifty running back with an absolutely incredible juke move. It allowed him to make many defenders miss in one-on-one situations. In this clip below, he causes two defenders to whiff in the backfield.
Just beautiful. His lateral movement and ability to maintain balance is an impressive trait. It was a large factor for Edmonds’ success in college. The tape matches the analytics, as his agility score ranked in the 97th percentile among his peers, despite only average to above average rankings elsewhere. Plays like the one below led to Edmonds being 1 of only 30 players from Fordham University to be drafted into the NFL in their 84 year history.
Chase Edmonds (Fordham/5'9" 205) in space vs Navy pic.twitter.com/4VYfqfGgpV
— Dillon Glause (@DillonGlause) June 8, 2017
When Chase Edmonds got into the NFL, he found himself in an odd position. David Johnson, the incumbent starter at the time, had just dislocated his wrist the previous year (2017) during the very first game. This would led to a running back committee. At the time, the Cardinals relied on veterans Adrian Peterson and Kerwynn Williams (in what would be his final season) to lead a backfield that would finish 30th in total rushing yards.
In 2019, Edmonds took a backseat to David Johnson. He would get his chance to flourish when Johnson went down against the Giants in Week 7 though. Edmonds filled in admirably, accumulating 150 yards on 29 touches with three touchdowns. It seemed as if Edmonds was ready to take over. The football Gods had different plans. The following game he would get injured, and the team would trade for Kenyan Drake.
In 2020, Edmonds would be the backup once again, now to Kenyan Drake. David Johnson would be traded to the Houston Texans prior to the season. This time, Edmonds was more of a 1b than an actual backup. Edmonds was the 7th-most targeted RB in the NFL this past season with 65 targets. He added 402 yards yards which was good for 6th (min. 40 targets), and had the 6th-best receiving grade per PFF. In essence, he played the same type of role that Nyheim Hines did in Indianapolis.
As a runner, Edmonds put up an above average YPC (yards per carry), but that seemed to be primarily due to facing 8-man boxes the third least amount of times in the NFL. That was probably for the best, as the Cardinals offensive line graded as the 9th-worst run-blocking team in the NFL in 2020, per PFF.
Fantasy Outlook
A lot of Edmonds’ outlook depends on what the Cardinals do. Re-signing Drake, going after a free agent, or drafting a running back in the 1st or 2nd-round would signify that the team doesn’t believe in his ability to be the lead back. If that ends up being the case, then I would expect a repeat in last year’s numbers; where he finished as the RB23 in PPR formats. This is due to my belief that he will have a guaranteed role regardless of the outcome.
If the Cardinals decide to go with Chase Edmonds as their starting RB in 2021, there’s a road to fantasy football success there. When given at least 10 touches, Edmonds averaged 13.95 FFPG in PPR leagues since 2019 (8 games total). That would be good for 19th among all running backs in 2020 with at least 8 games played. Just for comparison’s sake that number would be good for 21st overall in 2019. Those are RB2 numbers just based on the limited data obtainable.
At the moment Edmonds has an average ADP of 121; and his rank continues to climb as we near free agency. In 12-man leagues this is the 10th round, where you can also find Bills’ RB Zack Moss (who finished 48th in PPR in 2020). Personally, I believe that may be too high. Nyheim Hines produces similar (if not better) numbers and can be had in the 14th round of most drafts.
I do believe Edmonds is a buy, but not at that price tag. Getting Edmonds for a late 2nd or early 3rd-round pick would be a smash accept trade from me. Anything higher than that though and I’m declining. As an owner, I probably will look to sell before free agency as his value will be at its highest before then.
