With a new coaching staff and quarterback, we take a look at Lions’ RB D’Andre Swift and his dynasty value going foward.
D’andre Swift was one of the rookies in the 2020 draft class to take the fantasy football community by storm. He missed four games on the year but still finished as the RB20, one spot behind Clyde Edwards-Helaire; who was the consensus rookie RB1 prior to the season starting.
Going into 2021 Swift will have a new quarterback in Jared Goff and head coach in Dan Campbell. For some, this has been cause for concern for the fantasy football outlook among all of the Lion’s players, due to a lack of faith in both parties. Although Swift had a serious head injury that is a cause for concern going forward, I don’t think any of the surrounding parts on the team will affect him. I believe they actually raise the value of D’Andre Swift going forward, and there’s a few reasons why.
Head coach Dan Campbell
Dan Campbell was the face of many memes when he spoke during his introductory press conference as head coach of the Detroit Lions. His ‘biting knee caps’ phrase won’t be forgotten anytime soon. Lost in the jokes were some tidbits about D’Andre Swift and his expected usage going forward. Campbell plans on running the offense around Swift and putting him in the slot to get 1-on-1 matchups against linebackers in space.
It’s clear that Campbell believes that D’Andre Swift can play a similar role to Saints’ RB Alvin Kamara. Kamara is the focal point of that offense and an elite pass-catcher. There’s little reason to believe why Swift can’t be either. From weeks 5-17 (when Swift was starting to see more regular touches), he was graded out as the 7th best receiving RB among those with at least 25 targets, per PFF. During that span, only Myles Gaskin and Austin Ekeler had higher grades with less games played.
Offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn
Anthony Lynn was the former head coach of the Los Angeles Chargers, and now comes to Detroit as the offensive coordinator under Dan Campbell. Although many people blame Lynn for a disappointing 2020 season (and forcing Melvin Gordon touches in 2019), he does an excellent job utilizing running backs in his scheme.
A look at the number of targets per game new Detroit Lions offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn has provided his RB room each year (as an OC/HC)
2016: Buffalo #Bills Interim OC/Interim HC
2017-2020: Los Angeles #Chargers HC
Present: Detroit #Lions OC pic.twitter.com/3T0yKoPDop— Eli Grabanski (@3li_handles) February 11, 2021
New Detroit #Lions OC Anthony Lynn's RB Room Per Game Stats (as an OC/HC)
Carries: 22.81
Rush Yards: 101.26
Rush TDs: 0.82
Receptions: 6.71
Targets: 8.5
Rec. Yards: 57.15
Rec. TDs: 0.35Games Coached: 78
D'Andre Swift's Stock 📈 pic.twitter.com/WXppWzQS5n
— Eli Grabanski (@3li_handles) January 23, 2021
Much appreciation to Eli Grabanski for providing the data above.
On Wednesday, Anthony Lynn came out and said that he believes D’Andre Swift is capable of being a three-down back. If this is true then the sky is the limit on the potential of Swift inside this offense.
Quarterback Jared Goff
To many, Goff is the biggest variable when determining the value of D’Andre Swift going forward. He’s had an inconsistent career with the thought being that Rams’ head coach Sean McVay has covered up his shortcomings as a quarterback. Whether or not that’s true, doesn’t matter in this instance.
When Jared Goff has a great running back behind him, they get involved. In 2017-18, Goff was the 11th highest-graded passer by PFF over that time. A large part of that success was due to targeting the running back, with a 17.5% target share. Over that span Todd Gurley was fourth in targets among running backs in the NFL.
Since 2019 (after Todd Gurley left), that number’s averaged only 10.84% (Shout out to Eli once again).
Los Angeles #Rams Target Distribution By Position (2019 vs. 2020)
2019
RB – 9.65%
WR – 62.18%
TE – 24.68%
Other (QB/FB/OL/Defensive Players) – 0.16%
Unaccounted/Throwaways – 3.32%2020
RB – 12.03%
WR – 61.86%
TE – 21.36%
Other – 0%
Unaccounted/Throwaways – 4.75% pic.twitter.com/W015i4mgUM— Eli Grabanski (@3li_handles) February 1, 2021
That’s a large drop-off, but there’s reason to believe scheme had a lot more to do with it than Jared Goff refusing to target the running backs.
So what’s D’Andre Swift’s dynasty value?
Running backs who are threats in the passing attack are elite fantasy football players. In the past five years, 80% of the Top-10 running backs received at least 45 targets. With a coordinator whose RB room averages 136 targets per season (using Eli’s data above), there’s little reason to believe that Swift won’t eclipse 60 targets in 2021.
None of this has even taken into account Swift’s rushing ability. The rookie averaged 4.6 YPA (yards per attempt) which was good for 18th in the NFL among running backs with at least 100 attempts. The Lions’ offensive line was good in run-blocking as well, grading out as the 13th best team in the NFL in 2020.
As of right now, D’Andre Swift’s ADP in dynasty formats is 9.33, slightly behind Minnesota Vikings’ RB Dalvin Cook. Pricey to some, but I believe it’s the correct number. Swift has legitimate potential to become a Top-5 RB in fantasy football this year (barring injury), and throughout the duration of his contract. For comparison’s sake, I have Swift ranked ahead of Cam Akers this season.
With the hype surrounding Swift, he’s going to be hard to get in a trade. A 1st round pick and an above-average player, or multiple high-end draft picks will probably be needed. With the potential to be a league winner this season, I would target him regardless. You don’t pass up on players with that type of potential unless you have one on your team already.
