With Chris Carson likely to become a free agent, Rashaad Penny is on the path to fantasy football relevance.
To view my previous Dynasty Profile installment featuring Darnell Mooney, click here.
Rashaad Penny seems to be finally catching his break and return to fantasy football relevance. Chris Carson seems to be on his way out of Seattle, and the team just re-signed Alex Collins; nearly solidfying the thought that Penny is going to be the lead running back in 2021.
History
Selected 27th overall in the 2018 NFL Draft by the Seattle Seahawks, Rashaad Penny was a phenom at San Diego State. With an incredible combination of vision, strength, and speed, Penny is an elite talent.
#SanDiegoState RB Rashaad Penny showing off his run power. pic.twitter.com/fcFgPgQ8yG
— Dane Brugler (@dpbrugler) October 30, 2017
Rashaad Penny, my goodness. pic.twitter.com/El9Y9VdDGF
— Ron Counts (@Ron_BroncoBeat) October 8, 2017
Advanced metrics love him too, as his college dominator rating and YPC were elite (98th and 97th respectively), while his target share was also on the cusp in the 77th percentile.
Coming into a crowded running back room in Seattle, it was hard for Penny to get a large amount of touches; but he excelled when he did.
Penny averaged 4.9 YPA in 2018, ranking 12th among 56 running backs with at least 80 carries on the season per PFF. He was also one of the best running backs to gain yards after contact. His YCO/A (yards after contact per attempt) was 3.40, placing him 5th overall; which is impressive considering he had an average elusive rating of 47.0, ranking 26th among all running backs. Another stat that sticks out is Penny’s breakaway percentage. Per PFF, Penny also ranked 5th overall in this stat with 46.8% of his runs coming from big plays.
Despite some injury issues (more on this later), 2019 was very similar to his rookie season. This time, Penny led all RBs in the NFL in breakaway percentage and yards per attempt. His yards after contact per attempt fell to 3.12 which was good for 24th overall, but that was still above average compared to his peers.
Moyer from the Fantasy Football Astronauts does an excellent job showing the intelligence of Penny as he’s come into the NFL. His vision has stayed great, his balance superb, and he’s learning to adjust on the fly. All of these are things you want to see from someone you plan on becoming your lead running back.
Rashaad Penny came from a gap-heavy college scheme in which the RB is told where to run on most plays. Week 12 he showed growth adapting to Seattle’s zone and duo concepts that require reads across multiple gaps & balanced footwork to adjust on the fly. pic.twitter.com/v9A0PDIqxd
— J Moyer (@JMoyerFB) November 27, 2019
Now some people will look at the numbers above and say they’re fluky because Penny faced the 5th-lightest box among RBs in 2018. With that being said, he was still an above average runner. Penny placed 17th in RYOE/A (rushing yards over expected per attempt) that same year. Penny didn’t have enough rushing attempts in 2019 to qualify for NextGen stats.
Forgotten in these stats too is how mediocre the Seahawks run-blocking was, ranking 19th and 20th per PFF in ’18 and ’19, respsectively. The below clip shows Penny overcoming these issues and escaping for a monster run.
Rashaad Penny with the backyard football moves 👀 #GBvsSEA pic.twitter.com/UJy5GeOUMx
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) November 16, 2018
2020 was essentially a lost year for Penny. He appeared in only three games and didn’t muster 50 yards on the season. An ACL tear from 2019 kept him out for most of this season, and continued to give him some issues. Injuries are the only real concern for Penny going forward. While it may be a reason Seattle doesn’t pick up his 5th-year option, it wouldn’t negate them from utilizing him as the primary RB while they have him under contract.
Fantasy Football Outlook
With Chris Carson inevitably gone, Rashaad Penny finally has an opportunity to take over as the lead running back in 2021. Being a 1st-round draft selection, there’s no chance that the Seahawks look at another running back prematurely. Having Alex Collins and DeeJay Dallas as insurance, and the team without a high draft pick in 2021, only solidifies this.
The Seahawks have produced a Top-20 fantasy football running back each of the last three seasons. With head coach Pete Carroll suggesting the team will run more often, Penny seems locked into a high RB2, low RB1 season; assuming he can stay healthy.
As of now, Penny’s overall ADP is 176. That’s in the middle of the 14th round in 12-team fantasy football leagues. Other players around this ADP are Marlon Mack, Phillip Lindsay, and Jamaal Williams. While I think these guys are great value picks, only Penny seems locked into a starting role in 2021.
In terms of trade value, Penny can be had for a 2021 3rd-round pick. To me, this is a steal. You will rarely get a starting-caliber player in the third round. With how often fantasy football managers overvalue draft picks, you should be able to get a trade done with ease. This becomes more true as we get closer to the NFL Draft.
Despite the injury concerns, I’m buying Penny as much as possible. I selected him late in the 14th round in my 14-team IDP super flex league and have no regrets. Some players may choose to be safe, but in dynasty leagues you always make the low-risk move if the potential can be great.
