There are plenty of strategies one can use during a dynasty startup to build the perfect fantasy football roster. My personal favorite is the trade-down-for-depth approach. The primary goal of this strategy is to trade out your high-value first and second-round picks in exchange for multiple mid-round selections. By acquiring additional mid-round picks, the team aims to build depth and increase stability throughout the season.
I’ve successfully executed the trade-down-for-depth strategy in different ways, but we’ll focus on my most recent dynasty startup draft. I traded down from the first and second rounds to acquire an extra third-round pick, as well as two fourth-round and a fifth-round pick. Based on Sleeper ADP for 2023, these picks allowed me to draft DeVonta Smith, Tua Tagovailoa, Rhamondre Stevenson and Javonte Williams in rounds three through five. Those are only selections made with picks acquired by trading down. In mocks based on this setup, I was also able to draft Tee Higgins, Kyler Murray, and Michael Pittman in rounds three through five. So by the end of round five, I have seven players who could finish in the top 10-20 range of their respective positions.
Here is the lineup so far:
Over the next couple of rounds, I flesh out the starting lineup. I take Calvin Ridley in round six and Pat Freiermuth in round seven. Come round eight, this team is in a position to start drafting bench players. Meanwhile, the rest of the league is scrambling to fill their lineups. This means I am looking at drafting Marquise Brown, Amari Cooper, Geno Smith, and Aaron Jones as genuine depth options.
Having such high-quality depth means finding replacements in the event of injury is significantly easier. On top of already rostering a suitable replacement, the point disparity between the injured player and the replacement player is appreciably less. The other benefit of the trade-down for depth approach is that none of your starters are outproducing your other starters by a notable margin.
For example, in 2022 the point total disparity between DeVonta Smith and Tee Higgins was an average of 0.1 per game – with a season total of 31.4. If you had Ceedee Lamb and Tee Higgins instead, your point-per-game gap grows to 2.8 with a total difference of 78.4.
The first pair has a more balanced point distribution between them, both on a per-game and total points basis. What is the cost of this total production loss, though? As a duo, Ceedee and Higgins scored 524.8, while Smith and Higgins scored 477.8. Let’s Take my first five picks and compare them with the five made by the Ceedee drafter from their slot (1.12)
Dynasty Startup PPG Comparison
Due to some players on both sides missing a few games, we will compare these teams using their point-per-game average. In 2022, my team averaged 81.9 points per game from the first five players taken, while the other team averaged 77.1.
But maybe the CeeDee team is particularly weak at the 12th overall slot. So let’s take a look at it from the other side of the draft board:
The 1.01 team drafted Justin Jefferson, Chris Olave, Dak Prescott, Najee Harris, and Nick Chubb. That team had an average point per game of 82.4. So at worst, the team trading down remains competitive with the teams that make their big-name selections in rounds one and two. They do this while retaining the potential to outscore them.
Dynasty Positional Scarcity Value
The trade-down-for-depth team is able to score as much as everyone else – if done right. The main positives of this strategy are extra depth, with production spread across the entire lineup instead of consolidated to a few spots. To illustrate why these are such big advantages, consider the following situation:
I draft Joe Burrow as my QB at 1.05. My team now will rely on his high-scoring performances. That isn’t a bad basket to put your eggs in. The catch is if he were to miss time due to injury, finding a replacement who can produce at a similar level becomes crucial. If you can’t, you will have a 21.7 point per game deficit in your lineup. Not a big deal, right? Wrong.
The highest-scoring QBs with an ADP in round 10 or later are Brock Purdy and Mac Jones, per Fantasy Pros 2023 ADP. These two averaged 12.3 and 12.9 points per game, respectively. At best, you risk losing 8.8 points per game – or 149.6 points on the season. That’s quite the drop for your starting lineup. Even if you’ve forgone filling your lineup before taking your QB3, you still risk a point deficit. Drafting Geno Smith at his ADP (round 8) who averaged 18.5 PPG makes you potentially risk losing 3.2 points per week and 54.4 points total.
The same principle applies to the wide receiver position. If I select Justin Jefferson 1.04 overall, his potential injury would leave a considerable gap in my team’s production. The best replacement around Geno Smith’s round 8 ADP would be Amari Cooper, but there would still be a significant deficit in points per game.
Jefferson scored 21.7 points per game, while Amari Cooper scored 14.5. This means you’re looking at a per-game loss of 7.2 points with a yearly total of 122.4. However, if I draft DeVonta Smith in the third round as my WR1 and he gets injured, plugging in Amari Cooper as a replacement results in a negligible point difference – both on a weekly basis and over the season. Smith averaged 15 points per game, so a .5 point per week deficit and 8.5 on the season.
None of this is meant to be a hit piece on Burrow or Jefferson. They have high ADPs for a reason. The trade-down-for-depth approach, though, creates a more even point distribution across your roster. Rather than having a top-three guy at any single position, the team you draft wants to have multiple guys who finish in the 10-20 range across the board. In short, you can get as good of a starting roster by trading down. In doing so, acquire high-quality backups who can sub-in at any time as nearly one-for-one replacements.
Conclusion
Trading down serves another purpose beyond providing high-quality backups. It gives more flexibility in the trade market as the year goes on. Whether you aim to consolidate value, sell high or buy low, you have a better chance of being in a position to make these moves without risking production and stability.
A fun detail about this draft day approach is its ability to be used in conjunction with other strategies. For example, the Zero RB approach is a perfect strategy to combine with the trade-down-for-depth. RBs like Dalvin Cook, Aaron Jones, Cam Akers, and James Conner have R7 ADP or later. There is no need to reach for viable running backs. Of course, never pass on value. If I go Zero RB and Travis Etienne is there mid-round four or Rhamondre Stevenson mid-five, I’ll take them. This is especially true now that I have extra picks in this range.
The main issue in executing this dynasty strategy is making the correct trades. Slotting players at similar ADP can help navigate how the draft can break down. Using this pick valuation, you have to accept there will be some variance. The intention, however, is to serve as a guideline to help progress through trade talks.
Keep in mind that you should never force a trade for the sake of the strategy. If you can’t get a good deal for your picks, mold your strategy to fit what you can do. While it’s no guarantee you will be able to implement this dynasty startup draft strategy, it is absolutely worth considering to set your team up for both immediate and long-term success.
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Alex
Hey there, I'm Alex, and I've been living and breathing fantasy football for over a decade. Originally from Kansas, I've since planted roots in Canada.My journey in fantasy football has been a thrilling adventure. I started like many of us do, drafting with friends and having a blast. Over the years, I've taken it a step further, diving headfirst into the captivating world of dynasty leagues, where the game takes on a whole new dimension.For me, fantasy football isn't just a hobby – it's a strategic journey. It's not just about selecting players and setting lineups; it's a dynamic market where every move counts.