What a difference a year makes in fantasy football. This time last year, Clyde Edwards-Helaire was the consensus 1.01 in rookie drafts and viewed as a top-5 dynasty back before even stepping onto an NFL field. Fast forward to 2021, and the entire landscape seems to have changed. Using DLF Start-Up ADP from September 2020 to now, follow along as we look at how the landscape has changed for some of the most impactful rookie running backs from a season ago.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Then: RB5 Now: RB12
CEH declared for the NFL Draft following his Junior season at LSU that saw him rush for over 1,400 yards and 16 TDs, adding 55 catches for 450 yards and a TD. He was selected by the Kansas City Chiefs in the 1st round; taking CEH from debatably the 4th best RB in his class to the consensus 1.01 in fantasy football rookie drafts. With Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid’s rich background of fantasy RBs, CEH had league-winning expectations immediately after being drafted.
Now, most people – at least currently – likely regret that choice at 1.01 if they chose CEH. The rookie wasn’t necessarily bad, but he was not league-altering good either. He finished as the rookie RB6 and was the RB22 in Half-PPR formats in 13 games. Clyde was involved in all facets of the Chiefs’ offensive gameplan. Had he remained healthy, it’s likely he would have finished as a top-15 back. The biggest knock on him? The lack of TDs (five total) and his health issues. However, TDs have proven volatile over the years. In a high-powered offense, he should have plenty of opportunities moving forward.
Looking ahead to the 2022 season, CEH should be on the list of bounce-back fantasy football players. Darrel Williams and Jerick McKinnon are the only competition in the room after Le’Veon Bell and Damien Williams departed. Edwards-Helaire should duplicate the 16+ touches he saw per game after posting roughly 45% of the total carries last season. We can reasonably expect him to have plenty of opportunities to increase his overall TD numbers. Fantasy football managers should have the utmost faith in him as the low-end RB1/high-end RB2 he is currently being drafted as, with upside for more.
Jonathan Taylor
Then: RB9 Now: RB2
With three straight seasons of 2000+ scrimmage yards and 13+ total TDs at Wisconsin, the Indianapolis Colts traded up to get Jonathan Taylor in the 2nd round, adding to their backfield consisting of Marlon Mack and Nyhiem Hines. Mack was named the starter ahead of Week 1, leading many to believe JT would be part of an RBBC. However, Mack tore his Achilles tendon after playing just 11 snaps. The injury opened the door for the highly touted prospect to become the RB1 behind one of the best offensive lines in the league.
Taylor didn’t start his RB1 status for the Colts on an overall high note. He sputtered at times, averaging only 48 rushing yards per game and was even jumped by Jordan Wilkins and Hines briefly. But Taylor got hot when it mattered. From Weeks 11-17, he turned roughly 23 opportunities per game into 139 total yards (per game) and seven TDs overall, finishing the season as the RB6. This late-season showcase proved why he deserved the rookie RB1 title.
The Colts sophomore back should enter the season as the unquestioned workhorse. Taylor has the ability and opportunity to be THE RB1 in fantasy football, despite the presence of Hines and his pass-catching skills. However, the return of better pass-catching backs around the league like CMC and Saquon Barkley may hinder those lofty expectations a bit.
Fantasy football managers should not expect Marlon Mack to take too much away from him in terms of carries. So draft Taylor as a solid RB1, especially in dynasty leagues as he enters the year at only 22 years old.
J.K. Dobbins
Then: RB15 Now: RB14 – will likely drop in the coming months
Talk about a tale of two seasons for the stud running back out of Ohio State. Baltimore selected J.K. Dobbins in the 2nd round to go along with Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards. Dobbins finished his 3-year career at Ohio State with over 4,400 rushing yards and 38 TDs, averaging an eye-popping 6.2 yards per carry. Many knew that Dobbins would receive touches in Baltimore, but in more of a committee role than as a workhorse.
Despite a 42% snap share from Weeks 1-6 and not seeing more than 11 touches in any game, Dobbins came out of the bye as the man in the backfield for the league’s most run-heavy offense. Ingram became a healthy scratch for multiple games or didn’t see any snaps. Dobbins and Edwards handled much of the running work. Dobbins didn’t disappoint, rushing for 651 yards and seven TDs, averaging just under six YPC in his final nine games.
Through that stretch, Dobbins was the RB11 in PPR, a strong indication of just how effective he was. Dobbins finished the year 7th among RBs in Fantasy Points Per Opportunity, 1st in True YPC, 3rd in Yards Per Touch, 4th in Breakaway Runs, and 5th in Expected Points Added. Extremely impressive for a rookie running back in a season affected by the pandemic.
Given the offense and his efficiency last season, Dobbins had the look of a bonafide star and top-10 fantasy football dynasty RB. The Ravens added multiple pass-catchers this offseason to go along with TE Mark Andrews, to help open the field for their running game. With teams unable to stack the box as often, Dobbins was likely to duplicate his per-game numbers last year, if not expand on them. Unfortunately, in the first half of the team’s final preseason game, Dobbins tore his ACL. This will cause him to miss the entire 2021-22 season.
The injury was a decimating blow for those who had fantasy football drafts early in the year. In terms of dynasty, I wouldn’t be overly concerned about his outlook. We’ve seen young, dynamic backs come back from the same injury and return to form, if not better.
Based on previous injuries, his return is roughly in the 10-14 months range. That puts him in the conversation to start Week 1 for Baltimore this time next year. If you’re a rebuilding team, send out offers. Dobbins is only 22 years old. Although he could be eased back in next season, he could still be a league-winning back come the end of next season.
D’Andre Swift
Then: RB17 Now: RB11
After accumulating over 3,500 scrimmage yards and 25 total TDs at the University of Georgia, D’Andre Swift declared for the 2020 NFL Draft after his Junior year. Swift was taken in the 2nd round by the Detroit Lions. He wasn’t projected to be the starter right away, joining a RBBC led by Adrian Peterson.
That was true through the beginning of the year. Swift only saw a snap share greater than 50% in one game through Week 9. However in Week 10, it became apparent that this had become the rookie’s backfield.
Swift dominated the RB snap share with 73% compared to Kerryon Johnson (15%) and AP (12%). Swift responded to the increased usage well, accumulating 149 total yards and a TD on 21 touches, averaging seven YPT. Unfortunately for Swift, he suffered a concussion and missed the next two games, while also missing a 3rd due to illness.
Upon his return, Swift again dominated the snap count. The remainder of the season saw Swift continue his stranglehold of the backfield. He never saw less than 52% snap share in any game, finishing as the RB14 in Weeks 14-17. Swift would end his rookie campaign as the RB20 and RB18 in Standard and PPR scoring respectively.
Going into the offseason, Swift was expected to dominate touches even more. With new head coach Dan Campbell expected to lean on offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn for play-calling duties, expectations were that Swift would see a large workload in the offense. Lynn’s RB’s have seen an average of 23 rushes per game and a 30% reception rate over the last five years. Given the lack of receiving options, a lot of that work was expected to be for Swift.
Enter Jamaal Williams, who was a productive option for the Green Bay Packers over the last few seasons. Lynn has come out and said Williams is his “A” type of back, and we’ve seen that already in Week 1 of this season. This should provide some pause going forward this season.
Currently the RB11 from dynasty start-up ADP, I would personally rather have a back with more guaranteed work, and less risk. Without knowing how the offense shakes out, I’d rather have Swift as my RB2, as opposed to the low-end RB1/high-end RB2 he is currently being drafted as.
Cam Akers
Then: RB16 Now: RB25 – will likely fall in the coming months
Another 2nd round rookie, Cam Akers came from Florida State after his Junior season. He compiled 2,875 rushing yards on 586 carries and 27 TDs. Akers displayed formidable receiving ability, catching 69 passes for 486 yards and seven TDs.
Akers was drafted to a team with unproven backs after the departure of (former) stud back Todd Gurley. Was the new lead back going to be Akers? Darrell Henderson? Maybe Malcolm Brown, who had shown flashes but was never really the guy. Still, most believed Akers would lead the backfield from the start of the year.
Wrong were we. To start the year, it was all Malcolm Brown and Darrell Henderson. Akers’ season-high in snap share through Week 12 was 27%. After that, it was all Akers, all the time for the Rams. Outside of his missed Week 16 due to a high ankle sprain Akers posted an average snap share of 67.25% after Week 13. In that stretch, Akers averaged 14 PPG in PPR leagues, and was the fantasy football RB23.
Now, I know what you are probably thinking. That does not represent someone I should be drafting as my RB1. But we are not done yet, and neither was Akers. He became the focal point of the offense once fully healthy in the postseason. Cam saw a total of 49 touches over the Rams’ two postseason games, garnering 272 scrimmage yards to go along with two rushing TDs. Akers scored a massive 21.05 PPG in those playoff games. Had he done that in the regular season, he would have finished as the RB4 on a per-game basis of backs with at least 100 carries. This being ahead of Aaron Jones, James Robinson, and Nick Chubb.
Now, there is no definitive way of proving that Akers could have been able to replicate his playoff success this coming season. The production and workload in the playoffs as a rookie was encouraging from both a professional and fantasy football standpoint.
The 2021 offseason saw fantasy football players taking Akers top-24 overall in most leagues, especially in dynasty, as a potential top-12 back. That all changed in July.
While training on his own before mandatory camp had started, Akers tore his Achilles, effectively ending a promising season. We all know the stigma behind Achilles tears for RBs, but none were as talented or as young as Akers currently is. No elite back has ever had this injury after such a promising season.
29-year-old Arian Foster suffered this injury, but was a shell of himself at that point. Mikel Leshoure was once considered a top-2 back in his class and tore his Achilles during training camp of his rookie year. He then proceeded to play 14 games the following season after being suspended, finishing with just under 800 yards. He was out of the league two years later. D’onta Foreman was never going to be a star. Lendale White lacked efficiency in 2009 after his 15 TD year, was cut from Seattle the following year, signed with Denver, and tore his Achilles. Out of the league.
For Akers, it happened early enough to where he could be healthy for next season. There was a time where we thought torn ACLs were career killers for backs. That is no longer the case. Leshoure was able to come back and be productive from a torn Achilles. That was ten years ago. Medical advancements have made this surgery less invasive.
Historically speaking, Akers likely will not be the same next year, if at all. Like Dobbins, Akers is a hold for me regardless of my current standing in those leagues. I believe in talent and youth. If a contending team is looking to move him, see what it would take. Akers could likely set the new precedent for this injury; considering his ability and age at the time of injury.
