The 2021-22 fantasy football season was admittedly one of the weirdest that I’ve seen in my lifetime. They’re all weird, but this was an absurdly frustrating season; not just for me, but in general. Multiple stud players missing several games, players out with COVID at the most inopportune times, and guys simply over or underperforming based on preseason projections. Today, I’m diving into the guys that I believe overperformed the most.
For this exercise, I will be using a standard fantasy football lineup – 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX. It will be based on PPR scoring, excluding kickers and defenses. I used PFF’s expected fantasy points (X-PTS) as a starting point and tried not to use players that were expected to finish inside the top-10 according to X-PTS. Let’s dive in.
Quarterback
Joe Burrow
I think everyone knew the massive fantasy football upside that Joe Burrow possessed within the Bengals offense. Especially when they drafted his former LSU teammate, Ja’Marr Chase. Yet looking at X-PTS, Burrow was listed as the QB19, NINETEEN!
Surely, injury concerns played a factor in the outlook for Burrow; but he absolutely balled out this past season, leading the Bengals to an AFC North title and their first playoff win after over 30 years. After sitting out Week 18, Burrow finished the year with 4,611 yards and 34 TDs. He had eight games with 20+ fantasy points; closing the year strong totaling 72.9 points in the fantasy football championship weeks.
Burrow finished 1st in yards per attempt, 2nd in adjusted yards per attempt, 2nd in true completion percentage, 2nd in true passer rating, and 6th in fantasy points per drop back. Burrow finished as the fantasy football QB8 and was the leader in X-PTS +/- by a substantial margin. His +53.3 was 14 higher than the next closest full-time starter, Russell Wilson (+29.3). Burrow will almost certainly be locked in as a top-12 fantasy football option next season.
Running Back
James Conner
I’ll admit, I was in the camp that believed James Conner didn’t possess much standalone value for fantasy football leagues this year. Boy did he prove me, and plenty others wrong.
Conner turned into a TD machine for an Arizona offense that was considered one of the very best in the league. Although his yards per carry fell to a career-low, his 18 total TDs were 3rd among RBs, and also a career-high. Thanks to those TDs, Conner was one of the more efficient fantasy football players in the game this season, finishing 5th in fantasy points per opportunity (1.07) and 7th in fantasy points per game (17.2) according to PlayerProfiler.
Conner ended the year as the fantasy football RB5 and was 3rd among RBs in X-PTS +/- (+47.6). He showed he still has some gas left in the tank this season; but with plenty of talent returning from injury at the RB position around the league, and the influx of talent from the NFL draft, nobody should be banking on such a high overall finish from Conner next season. That’s not even mentioning the fact that Chase Edmonds played in only 12 games.
James Conner did enough to be given another contract from the Cardinals if they wish to do so, but he also may have played his way into a starting spot elsewhere. He will be an interesting option regardless of what happens, but if Mike Davis was being viewed as a fantasy football RB2 going into last season with the Falcons due to perceived volume, Conner should be as well if he becomes a starter on another team next season.
Running Back
Damien Harris
Playing more than 10 games for the first time in his short career led to Harris’ best statistical season; finishing as the RB14 in fantasy football. He fell just short of 1000 yards, rushing for 929 on 202 attempts. He did this while scoring 15 rushing TDs despite missing two games.
Damien Harris wasn’t quite as efficient as Conner on a per opportunity basis (20th), but Harris did grade out as PFF’s best overall running back with a top-5 rushing grade. His X-PTS +/- ranked 5th highest among RBs, ending the year +38.4.
Going as the fantasy football RB38 in redraft leagues according to The Undroppables, Harris was expected to fall victim to the RBBC approach New England typically operates with. He proved through the year that he was the best overall option out of the backfield.
Harris will likely be drafted higher next year, but the presence of Rhamondre Stevenson, who was extremely effective in spurts, may make some hesitant to draft him. However, New England is going to remain a run-first team until Mac Jones proves he’s capable of carrying an offense with his arm. Look for Harris to be in the RB2 range for fantasy football next season.
Wide Receiver
Ja’Marr Chase
“There isn’t going to be another Justin Jefferson in this draft class”, was a very popular statement in the fantasy football space during the off-season. They were right, because Ja’Marr Chase was debatably better.
Finishing the year with a Super-Bowl Era rookie receiving record that was held by Jefferson for roughly 12 months. A Pro-Bowler and likely OROY, Chase was everything most thought he would be and more. The rookie struggled with drops in the preseason, which led to some panic. Still, he finished the year as the WR5 and having an X-PTS +/- of +74.3 (2nd best among WRs).
Chase made quick work of his naysayers once the regular season started. He thrived in the Bengals’ aggressive aerial attack. The rookie finished 2nd in yards per reception, 3rd in yards per target, 3rd in deep targets, 4th in completed air yards, 5th in fantasy points per target, and 6th in fantasy points per route run.
It looks like the Bengals offense has its core for the next decade or so; thus making Chase a top fantasy football redraft and dynasty option – with some even making the case for him to be the WR1 in dynasty. The kid is for real and should be drafted as such, universally.
Wide Receiver
Hunter Renfrow
Is Hunter Renfrow the most technically sound route runner in the game? Some are making the argument after the season that he just had.
Renfrow saw a career-high in essentially every receiving category this season. This includes targets (128), receptions (103), receiving yards (1038), and receiving TDs (9). He closed the year as the WR10 in fantasy football.
Although his X-PTS +/- isn’t among the league leaders (+21.3), nobody expected Renfrow to be a WR1 this year. Regardless of what you thought of him or the Raiders. Renfrow finished the year 2nd in catch rate, 6th in red-zone targets, 8th in receptions, and 9th in yards after the catch.
The argument could be made that the absence of he who shall not be named and Darren Waller for stretches could have played a factor in the emergence of Renfrow. However, Derek Carr trusts him thanks to his ability to get open (6th in target separation, 11th in QBR when targeted). So, while he may see a decrease in overall numbers next season, he’s certainly going to be drafted higher than the WR94 he was being drafted in at the start of 2021.
FLEX
Deebo Samuel
With the highest X-PTS +/- of all players (+97.3), Deebo Samuel had to be on this roster. He was simply fantastic for fantasy football this season, finishing as the WR3. According to ESPN, he was also on 20% of fantasy championship teams.
The do-it-all WR from San Fran saw career-highs across the board and proved he’s one of the most explosive offensive weapons in the game. Samuel finished the year 1st among WRs in yards per reception, yards per target, fantasy points per route run, and fantasy points per target while being 2nd in yards after catch, and total TDs.
Looking ahead to next season, Samuel will easily be drafted higher than the WR36 in redrafts from 2021; and looks to have multiple top-12 WR fantasy football finishes in his future if he can stay healthy.
In dynasty, regardless of your fantasy football team’s status, he’s a hold or a buy. He’s young enough (26) that he can be part of your rebuild or a main core piece to a contending team.
Tight End
Dawson Knox
It seems like every year, a 3rd year TE break out is happening, right? Or am I just crazy? This year, we had the obvious one in Mark Andrews; who took the TE1 crown from Travis Kelce. Then, we had Dawson Knox!
As a Bills fan, I can say I truly did not see this coming. Buffalo, based on recent history, hasn’t been known for getting their tight end involved. This year, Knox saw 71 targets after seeing 94 targets his first two years combined. Granted, his “breakout” was pushed heavily by his 9 total TDs; but in the TE space, that’s all you care about anyway.
Knox’s X-PTS +/- was 5th in the league among TE’s (+19.7). He’s proven to be another weapon for a Bills team that was already stacked on the offensive side of the ball. Knox was 1st among TE’s in fantasy football points per target, and QBR when targeted. He was also 2nd in total TDs, and 5th in deep targets. He isn’t going to enter the top-5 discussion, but his newly formed love for the end zone on a pass-happy team with a young, stud QB; Knox will certainly have top-12 upside moving forward.
