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We have finally reached the last chapter in our fantasy football value series. We head to the AFC North and check out a division with possibly the most skilled playmakers of any in the NFL. You go down the list of teams, and there are elite offensive options on every roster in the division. However, what stands out is the Bengals’ defense being a distant fourth from every other team. Cincy will not pose a challenge for the division crown until they straighten out the issues on that side of the ball.
It is a three-team race for the division, and each has distinctive strengths and weaknesses to give them an edge over the others. Baltimore and Cleveland are comparable teams, as they mirror each other in strengths and weaknesses. Baltimore upgraded its passing attack, while Cleveland drastically upgraded its defense. Pittsburgh elected to give itself a legitimate weapon in the backfield to match its passing attack. I see this division coming down to the last week, with all three teams making the playoffs. It will be one of the most exciting playoff races in the league this year.
Baltimore finally did what we all have wanted them to do. Add receiving talent to help Lamar Jackson take this team to the Super Bowl. It was clear the receivers outside of Marquise ‘Hollywood’ Brown were not starting-caliber talent. The rest of the team seemed set to take off on a playoff journey.
The issue that hit this team hard has been injuries. The Ravens have lost two quality running backs, and receivers Rashod Bateman and Hollywood Brown have dealt with injuries to keep them off of the field so far. Hopefully, both will be back and ready to go early in the year. Will the addition to the receiving room help Baltimore solve its problems in the passing game? Only time will tell.
The narrative around Lamar being a bad passer is dramatically overblown. He is one of the best quarterbacks in the league who can beat you on the ground, or through the air. It was fun seeing people fall off the Lamar bandwagon last year only to slowly come back as they realize just how good he is.
If you are looking for an efficient player, look no further than Lamar. He had the 4th highest yards per attempt last season and rushing for over 1,000 yards. Lamar doesn’t just beat teams with his legs. He demolishes them. Lamar is the cog in the rushing attack that teams are unable to figure out. With season-ending injuries to both J.K. Dobbins and Justice Hill, the Ravens will rely on Lamar at a higher rate to help fill the holes left by those injuries. So invest with confidence, knowing you have a quarterback who has the upside to finish as the fantasy football QB1 on the year.
I enjoy Gus Edwards as a player, but the problem is the lack of receiving work for him. It is not a part of his game. Once you add that Lamar does not pass to running backs, Gus will need a fantastic season on the ground to pay off at his price. My issue is that I do not see Gus taking a significant share of the rushing work this season. He is excellent in the role he currently possesses with this team.
Gus is splitting work with Ty’Son Williams and even the corpse of Le’Veon Bell. Gus moving past his ADP is not something I see in the cards unless he takes on a receiving role, which is highly unlikely considering who the quarterback is. So the benchmark Gus would need to clear would be 200 fantasy points. It is possible, but not a bet I would be willing to make.
2021 is the year for Cleveland. After years of disappointment, The Dawg Pound is ready for Baker to lead this organization to heights it has not seen in decades. Cleveland is a lock to make the playoffs, and if all breaks right, they could push for the one seed in the AFC. With a second-year under coach Stefanski, the team is likely to take a step forward. Can Cleveland win its first division title since 1989? The fact it even is a possibility shows how far this franchise has come in the last few years.
How many quarterbacks are in a better situation for success than Baker Mayfield this year? Maybe five at most. The talent around Baker on both sides of the ball is some of the best in the league. The Browns have built a Super Bowl contender, as it is up to Baker to carry the team where it needs to go. At the cost of QB20, you are getting a value for a starting quarterback in Baker’s situation.
Did you know that Baker Mayfield was second in “money throws” in the NFL last year? Yeah, that surprised me as well. According to PlayerProfiler, to clarify what a Money Throw is, it “requires exceptional skill or athleticism as well as critical completions in clutch moments during the game.” Baker had 39 of those last year. Along with being top-10 in play-action and red zone completion percentage. Baker showed up when it mattered most for the Browns last year. If Cleveland opens up the passing attack as it did from Week 12 on, Mayfield will blow past QB20 on the season.
There is no way Kareem Hunt can pay off at his cost unless he somehow has another massive outlier season for touchdown production. Betting on touchdowns to carry a player is a losing bet. You can’t actively count on touchdowns each season, as the variance is too significant.
When we take away Hunt’s touchdowns, what does he offer for fantasy football? I hear people constantly talk about the upside Hunt offers as a standalone player and handcuff. I vehemently disagree about this. Taking Hunt in the 5th/6th round range is equivalent to lighting your money on fire. You are taking a backup in the draft where difference-making fantasy football players go. If Hunt falls to the 9th/10th round, I would be interested in taking him in that range. However, you will never get him at that price.
Pittsburgh committed the cardinal sin of drafting a running back in the first round. Not near as bad as when the Giants took Barkley, but still a bad long-term pick with how high the opportunity cost is for an NFL franchise to make that pick. This scenario makes more sense than most, as the team is trying to give Ben Roethlisberger one last chance at a Super Bowl. The question about the offense revolves around the line, and if they take a step forward, that pick will look great this season.
Boy did the fantasy football community miss on this rookie last year. Chase Claypool answered every question he had coming out of Notre Dame with a resounding YES! Claypool performed while competing with wide receivers Diontae Johnson and JuJu Smith-Schuster. He finished 3rd in deep targets and 9th in air yards while on the field only 60% of the time. How this was achievable is due to the 15th ranked Target Rate Claypool had as a rookie. Finally, when he was on the field, the Steelers looked his way early and often.
Invest with confidence in the 5th/6th round range, as a Claypool second-year leap is coming. Get out in front of it while you still can. By midseason, it will be too late.
Here is the issue in Pittsburgh at cost for the skill players. They all can’t pay off unless Pittsburgh breaks offensive records in 2021. With Najee’s arrival and Claypool expected to expand his role, someone in this offense will not hit their ADP. JuJu Smith-Schuster is the player that will suffer this season. I see him being a lower floor play without upside.
JuJu has shown over his career that where he succeeds is in the slot, not outside. The days of 1,400+ yards are not going to come back in this offense. What is carrying JuJu is the name cache he has from his first two seasons in the league. The split in the four years is reminiscent of Jekyll and Hyde. With JuJu unable to secure a deal this offseason, it reinforced the idea that teams view him as strictly a slot receiver and one they were unwilling to pay up. The sad reality for JuJu is that he is a slot receiver and 4th option on a team. He has a capped ceiling and will not live up to his ADP.
The Bengals added one of the best wide receivers prospects of the past decade. The Bengals are an interesting team. The defense is atrocious, setting them up to be one of the pass-heaviest teams in the NFL. You want the pass-catchers in this offense for 2021. Burrow and the company will have to outscore teams to win this year. I do not know how possible it is.
Tee Higgins is one of my favorite young wide receivers in the NFL. All he did was show up and show out as a rookie. Putting up over 100 targets on a 19% Target Share. Higgins let the NFL know that he will be a problem moving forward. The fact Cincy drafted Ja’Marr Chase will only help elevate Higgins in this offense.
Higgins carries an alpha profile in the NFL. The traditional 6’4 prototype of yesteryear can beat you downfield or go over the top of you and win. I love what I saw from him as a rookie, as I bought into the questions surrounding him coming into the NFL. We heard last offseason that Higgins lack of speed and athleticism could hurt his stock. Type in Tee Higgins dunk contest into Twitter. His game highlights will tell you all you need to know about Higgins’s supposed lack of athleticism. Draft Higgins in your fantasy football leagues with confidence that he takes his game to the next level in his second season.
Another year, and we are once again hyping up Joe Mixon. I must ask why we are going through this same song and dance, only to be hopelessly disappointed at the end of the season. The biggest issue is Mixon has never been an efficient player in his career. As in ever. While it is excellent to have volume, that player is not helping his team win without efficiency.
I know we will bring up the Bengals’ offensive line issues, but I never hear it brought up with elite running backs in the league. The elite backs produce, even with horrible offensive lines in front of them. McCaffery had the most incredible fantasy football season of all time, and the Panthers offensive line was bad in 2019. Saquon Barkley put up over 2,000 total yards as a rookie behind a subpar line in the NFL in 2018.
You can make the case that Mixon is not a PPR stud. Mixon lacks the receiving work to become the next great fantasy football RB. Furthermore, I would bring up the 2018 season, but let’s instead go with it. Take a Look at EPA (expected points added) per carry. In four seasons, Mixon has yet to post a positive number on the ground. Mixon is a volume-based play, which is fine, but picking Mixon hurts you more than it helps your team in the second round. There are tight ends, wide receivers, and other running backs, which give you a weekly advantage. Go ahead and let your league mates draft Mixon instead.
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