Fantasy Football 2021: Best and Worst Redraft Values, NFC North Edition

We move to our last NFC division, the NFC North (view the previous piece on the fantasy football values in the AFC East). One known for its cold temperatures and Packers dominance. A division the Packers have ruled for the previous 21 seasons. Winning 11 divisions titles in that span, while the rest of the division has combined for 10. That is a remarkable statistic highlighting how the Packers have seized a stranglehold on the division. Will this year be more of the same, or will either Minnesota or Chicago take the crown? (Sory, Lions fans.)

Green Bay Packers O/U 10.5 Wins

What is not to love about this offensive juggernaut? The Packers have three elite fantasy football players on the offensive side of the ball. Those three will once again score fantasy football points galore. While Davante Adams and Aaron Jones will push to be the top player at each skill position, Aaron Rodgers is no slouch. Rodgers just reminded everyone how good he still is. It is the last dance for Rodgers and the Packers. Expect another ludicrous season from this group. It should lead to celebrations across Titletown, USA.

Good: Aaron Jones RB6 ADP 9.2

Honestly, what is not to like about Jones? A swiss army knife on the football field, Jones can beat you from anywhere. While Jones has never received a heavy workload compared to other star backs, he does not need that workload to be an elite fantasy football running back. Where Jones earns his bread from a fantasy perspective are the weighted opportunities. This metric heavily discounts carries and enhances receptions based on average fantasy points per touch.

Jones, that last two seasons has been a top-10 fantasy back under that metric, and it makes sense. Packers utilize Jones in a certain way to get the goal-line work and hefty target share for him. For teams that have Jones rostered, it is a massive win. We want the running backs in that exact scenario that Jones is currently playing a role in.

When you add that Jones is a highly efficient running back, he has a path to being the overall RB1 in fantasy this season. Getting him in the backend of the first round should have you doing backflips. 

Bad: Robert Tonyan TE9 ADP 100.2

Robert Tonyan is an interesting case study. Last season he came out of nowhere to finish as the TE4 in fantasy football behind his 11 touchdowns, which led the position. That looks great, but here is the issue. The lack of targets highlights how lucky Tonyan was last season.

Tonyan was 24th among tight ends in targets the previous year. Tonyan also finished outside the top-10 in yards, air yards, receptions, yards per reception, and snap share. All signs point to a massive drop in production from Tonyan. If we cut his touchdowns in half, Tonyan would have dropped from the TE4 to the TE11 in PPR. 

While Tonyan’s efficiency carried him, due to those 11 touchdowns, Tonyan will fall short of his current ADP without a spike in usage. Remember, the Packers added pieces to the receiving room this offseason, making it even harder for Tonyan to grab a larger portion of the targets this year.

The fantasy football community has taken notice, which is why Tonyan currently sits as the TE9. Unfortunately, that is still too high, as last year was the perfect situation for Tonyan. I like the player, and the worked out with George Kittle narrative is fun, but it is a safe bet he finishes outside the top-10 in 2021.

Minnesota Vikings O/U 8.5 Wins

The Vikings are in an interesting position at the moment. They have the displeasure of playing second fiddle to the Packers during the Kirk Cousins era. Finishing with a .520 win percentage the last three years shows that the Vikings have been close but ultimately fallen short of expectations in the Kirk Cousins era. Although the offense will be a blast this year, if the Vikings plan on contending and challenge the Packers, the defense will need to improve significantly.

Good: Kirk Cousins QB21 ADP 164.5 ADP

Captain Kirk has a reputation in fantasy football that I do not understand. People seem to hate this man for being a good fantasy quarterback in his career, and I cannot figure out why. Cousins has had five QB1 performances in the past six seasons. You know what you are getting from Cousins, and sometimes that can be undervalued by the fantasy football community. You can lock in Cousins for 30 touchdowns, 4,000+ yards, and a completion % north of 67%. What’s not to like about those numbers from your starting quarterback?

While not possessing the upside to be the overall QB1, Cousins screams value at his current cost. Fade the narrative around him and enjoy good fantasy numbers from your quarterback. He is not a sexy pick but will help you win. Invest with confidence Cousins outperforms his ADP.

Bad: Dalvin Cook RB2 ADP 2.2

I think Dalvin Cook is one of, if not the best, running backs in the NFL. However, fading him at cost is not about talent alone. The situation plays a role as well. Cook faces an uphill battle in repeating his fantasy finish from last year. Cook is one of the few transcendent talents at the position, but even players as talented as Cook can have issues living up to ADP of the second pick. 

The main issue is injury concerns with Cook. Having dislocated both of his shoulders, Cook carries a more significant injury risk in re-dislocating his shoulder. I usually do not fade players for injury concerns, but Cook stands out to me, as a shoulder injury is one of the more common ones for a running back. So when you consider the players going around Cook, I can’t grab him with the 2nd pick in good faith.  

The secondary issue is the offensive line. Again, you expect a lot from Cook. With the Vikings currently having the 27th ranked offensive line, that should give you some cause for concern, as faulty line play can hurt a running back. Cook is good enough to overcome the issue, but it can drop his efficiency this season.

Cook is a truly great player, and no one can dispute that. However, I do not see him living up to the ADP, so I will let others take on the risk of selecting him second overall in drafts this year.

Chicago Bears O/U 7.5 Wins

It’s a new day in Chicago! Finally, after years of dealing with the pedestrian quarterback play, the Bears have found the franchise quarterback they have searched for the past 35+ seasons. Enter in Justin Fields, who will help this team move on from the disappointing Mitchell Trubisky era. While Andy Dalton is currently the “starter,” the job will be Fields sooner rather than later. The fact it is on hold due to Andy Dalton makes no sense to anyone outside of Chicago. However, the Bears have the skill players to make this division more interesting than it appears. With Fields at the helm, the team will show that it is not as far away as it seems.

Good: Allen Robinson WR12 ADP 29.2

How can you not love Allen Robinson? ARob has been a Reception Perception darling, for a good reason. Robinson is one of the best receivers in the NFL, and all he has done is produce while dealing with brutal quarterback play. There is a case to be made that Blake Bortles is the best QB Robinson has played with so far in his career. Now, Robinson finally gets that elite quarterback talent in Fields. There is only one way to go, and that is up. 

Robinson has been a target hog his entire career and will continue with Fields as his quarterback. Being the alpha receiver attached to a good quarterback is how a player pushes himself into the top tier of fantasy football. Robinson could challenge the career-best numbers that he put up in 2015. It is in his range of outcomes for 2021.

Grabbing Robinson in the third round of your draft is an intelligent play, as ARob will significantly exceed that ADP this year.

Bad: David Montgomery RB15 ADP 33.6

If you thought the Vikings offensive line was terrible, let me introduce you to The Bears. With injuries on the line, the Bears are in desperate need of some help. It has been a zoo for them to figure out the starting five spots. Moving players to a different position to fill in holes in hopes of getting sufficient play upfront.

The issue is David Montgomery is not as talented of a running back as Dalvin Cook. It makes it that much more challenging when you have a running back who is league-average talent. As a result, Montgomery cannot carry the running game without help from those in front of him.

Montgomery had a fairytale ending to last season and took advantage. There are other running backs on the roster capable of producing and cutting into that massive workload this year. Montgomery will not see a 90% opportunity share this year. That is just not in the range of outcomes for Monty. When you consider all of the factors for Montgomery this season, he is an easy fade at the cost of RB15. Invest elsewhere, and let someone else use a third-round pick for Monty.

Detroit Lions O/U 5 Wins

Finally, the Lions have freed themselves from the clutches of Matt Patricia. The problem in the short term is that the Lions have to clean up the leftover mess. But, having turned over the roster and building through the trenches is a good start. This year will not lead to success for the Lions, as it will lay the groundwork for them to build upon as they add more talent to the roster next season. The Lions could take a jump in the 2022 season if all breaks right. But, for this year, they will be one of the worst teams in the league. Bear with us for one more year, Lions fans. There is light at the end of the tunnel.

Good: Amon-Ra St. Brown WR73 ADP 157.9

In fantasy football, we want receivers on our rosters who are the WR1 of the team. It’s that simple; as the players with the most targets tend to put up the most fantasy points. There are some exceptions to this rule, but we should be targeting those team WR1’s. It is a sound strategy that pays off for you in the long run.

Amon-Ra is the Lions WR1 who lines up in the slot. Goff loved tight ends and slot receivers during his time in LA. They are safety blankets on a team without many other options. Goff will target St. Brown early and often this year, as he should lead the wide receivers in most statistical categories. At his cost of WR73, he is a massive value this year. Grab him with confidence in the 13th round of your drafts.

Bad: Jamaal Williams RB38 ADP 120.1

Honestly, I don’t understand the Jamaal Williams hype. He was never efficient in Green Bay with the QB wizard Aaron Rodgers. How is Williams going to be that in one of the worst offenses in the NFL? Williams’ price does not make sense, and it has not this entire offseason.

Detroit will be in countless game scripts that favor passing. So why would Detroit rely on a grinder to have a significant role instead of D’Andre Swift? Swift is the superior running back.

Jamaal Williams seems like a nice person, but Detroit did not spend significant money on him as a free agent and will not feature him this year. In addition, Detroit will not score that many points, so there is no touchdown upside in this offense for Williams. I don’t see how he chips into Swift’s workload this year. Swift is going to be the pass-catching back in that offense. Swift is the player in this backfield you want to target, not Williams.

At his current price, Williams is one of the biggest fades for me. Invest anywhere else at his cost.