The endless offseason hype is over. We are just a few mere hours away from the beginning of the 2021 NFL regular season. It’s time to start focusing on matchups and start-sit decisions we will face weekly throughout the season. As we transition, Fact or Fiction will be here to help you along the way. Staff members Jesse Moeller and Joe O’Leary will give you their opinions on several important fantasy football topics every week this season.
Buckle up. It’s Fact or Fiction time.
Austin Ekeler will go over 100 total yards week one
Jesse: Fact
This prop intrigues me as I expect Ekeler to have a good day, potentially being an elite option in week one. Washington has one of the best pass rushes in the NFL, and Herbert will be under pressure throughout the game. So it is the perfect situation to favor Ekeler early and often out of the backfield to let him accumulate those yards. I see 10+ targets for him in this game, which makes him a locked-in top ten PPR player at the running back position. If Ekeler can find the endzone, he likely becomes a top five play this week. Ekeler is a safe, high floor play to me. I do not see him having a problem finishing with more than 100 yards on the day, as he will have chunk plays against the defense’s weak spot, the linebackers.
Joe: Fact
This is a smash for me. The way Austin Ekeler is utilized by the Chargers on the ground or through the air, he racks up yards in a variety of different ways. Ekeler is one of the best receiving backs in the league, totaling 146 receptions over his last 26 games played. He can also do it on the ground. Taking over more of an early-down role in 2020, Ekeler averaged 12.6 carries in 9 healthy games played. The Washington Football Team presents a tough obstacle with a stingy defense, but I still look for Ekeler to be able to get over the century mark for total yards in this one.
Damien Harris will be an RB2 this week (Top-24)
Jesse: Fiction
I’m not too fond of this matchup for Damien Harris in week one. With his current role on the team, he is devoid of pass-catching work. Harris needs heavy involvement on the ground or the ability to find the endzone. Otherwise, there are no guarantees he can eclipse double-digit points each week. Harris is a floor play in a timeshare. I do not see the upside, especially against the Miami defense. In week one, the offense could struggle against Miami and rely on the passing attack to win the game. Under that scenario, Harris is an afterthought. This week, I have Harris outside the top 30 RB, so I am fading him as an RB2 play or higher. I prefer to start James White as he is running back to trust this week for New England.
Joe: Fact
Trading Sony Michel to the Rams did wonders for Damien Harris’s fantasy football outlook this season. His goal-line usage should get a bump along with the possibility of a little more receiving work as well with Mac Jones under center. Harris is still a touchdown-dependent fantasy football option until further notice. In Week 1 versus the Miami Dolphins, I think Harris does indeed find the end zone. The Patriots are going to want to establish the run with a rookie quarterback. Look for Harris to flirt with 100 rushing yards as well. Any receiving work will be the cherry on top. I think Harris finds his way to back end running back two numbers this week versus Miami.
Dak Prescott finishes higher then Tom Brady in their head to head matchup
Jesse: Fact
My thoughts on this matchup are how both offenses will succeed this week. I see two different game plans for Tampa Bay and Dallas. Tampa Bay will likely run all over Dallas, so I am all in on starting Ronald Jones this week. On the other hand, that means Brady will not need to put on a show, as he can rely on the line and running backs to carry the load. Dallas is a complete 180 for me. Without Zach Martin and a La’el Collins coming back from injury, I don’t see Dallas running the ball successfully this week. If that is the case, Dak likely will throw upwards of 40+ times as they will be chasing Tampa most of the game. I expect Dak to outscore Brady this week based on Dallas being unable to rely on Zeke through the ground. Dak and the pass-catchers should put up good numbers as long as Dak can stay upright against the Bucs defense. It will be a similar formula to what we saw from Dallas early last year.
Joe: Fiction
Dak Prescott is likely to finish higher in fantasy football for the season versus Tom Brady, but not in week one. On top of coming back from his leg injury, Dak finds himself battling a shoulder problem as well. To make things even worse, it’s a tough matchup on the road in a Prime Time game versus the defending champion Buccaneers. Brady gets the easier matchup against the Cowboy’s defense this week. He should be able to do what he wants facing this Cowboys secondary. Garbage time could sway this in Dak’s favor, but I’m expecting Brady to flirt with top-five quarterback numbers while expectations for Dak in week one should be a little tempered.
Kyle Pitts goes over 51.5 receiving yards versus the Eagles?
Jesse: Fact
I want to start this post by saying I am a Kyle Pitts stan. Now that we have that out of the way, I will happily take the over on this bet. I have no faith in the Eagles’ defense being able to stop the top two passing options for the Falcons in week one. Eagles ranked bottom 10 in fantasy points allowed to both tight ends and wide receivers last year. What also boosts my faith in Pitts is that the offense has the making of having the targets condense around the two top receiving options. That is Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts. (Sorry, Russell Gage fans, but he is the clear 3rd option in this group.) So it is relatively easy to project Pitts and Ridley to have a Target Share of 45%+ between them this year. Pitts will be featured early and often in the passing attack to the excitement of NFL and fantasy fans everywhere. I’m betting on Pitts in week one to announce he is for real in week one.
Joe: Fact
Let’s start this Kyle Pitts hype train in style, shall we? FACT FACT FACT! Kyle Pitts starts his career off in a friendly matchup at home versus the Eagles. This game has the potential to be one of the higher-scoring contests of week one. Besides Calvin Ridley, there’s a whole looking to be filled for the Falcons following the departure of Julio Jones. I’m expecting Kyle Pitts to be up to the task of taking over that void. I’m going over 51.5 yards for Pitts in his debut for the Falcons.
