In Week 10 GameDay Edge, it was mentioned that Las Vegas Raiders should have no problem moving the ball against the Kansas City Chiefs. That did not manifest as they struggled and abandoned the run as they fell behind significantly. Kansas City moved the ball well, funneling targets to the RBs and TEs; positions the Raiders defense is porous against. I did warn against using Patrick Mahomes in fantasy football, so obviously he puts up five touchdowns.
I will continue to use the explosive matchup chart to explore fantasy football matchups. The boom predictor model will be fine-tuned to account for as many matchups within a game. Next week I will attempt to incorporate blitz, pressure rand sack rate data as the second step into furthering the model.
Data is used from Sharp Football Stats. For a play to be an explosive rush play, it needs to gain more than 10 yards. For a pass play to be deemed explosive, it needs to gain more than 15 yards.
The delta values below are the defensive explosive rank minus the opponent’s offensive explosive rank. So if Team A ranked 5th in offensive explosive pass play and Team B ranked 25th in defensive explosive pass play, Team A has a score of 20 – which is really good.
Week 11 Explosive Matchup Chart
Rushing Tidbits
- Baltimore Ravens again have plus matchup in rush; however, the Dolphins showed a blueprint on stopping the Ravens. If the Ravens do not adjust and execute, it will not matter.
- On the other side, the Chicago Bears also have a similar explosive rush matchup. Get ready for some old-school football in a game that should feature the run.
- Jacksonville Jaguars, surprisingly, have the sixth most explosive rush plays. SF is becoming a run funnel defense, so look for James Robinson to churn good yards if he plays.
- The Minnesota Vikings and Seattle Seahawks should rely on their RBs. Both Green Bay and the Arizona Cardinals refuse to give up explosive pass plays and allow offenses to rush and/or check-down. The Cardinals are allowing the most receptions to the RB position with 71 receptions so far this season. Surprisingly, they have not given up a touchdown to RBs via the air yet.
Passing Tidbits
- Again, Baltimore faces another plus pass matchup. The story will be if the Baltimore OL can execute against the solid Bears DL for the passing game to succeed downfield.
- Cleveland Browns should bounce-back against the Detriot Lions as long as they get some running backs from injury/COVID. Relying on Baker Mayfield without a run game will never be the answer.
- Dallas Cowboys have a plus matchup in both the run and pass. This KC-DAL game is set up to be an explosive one. Look for KC to utilize Kelce and the RBs often again.
- The Las Vegas Raiders again have a plus explosive pass matchup but it seems the offense misses Jon Gruden’s expertise; and maybe even Henry Rugg’s vertical threat.
- Mac Jones’ performance should have him in discussion for OROY (competing with Ja’marr Chase). Mac should again put up solid numbers against Atlanta Falcons.
- Deebo Samuel is already an elite WR in fantasy football and has another boom matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Look for Deebo to continue to put up insane numbers with the massive 18% target/snap.
