Fantasy Football 2021: GameDay Edge – Week 13

I have finally added another data point to the GameDay Edge fantasy football article. Along with the explosive chart, I will provide a pressure matchup chart. To check out the explanation of the explosive chart, view GameDay Week 9 article.

As for the new fantasy football pressure chart, here is the methodology. First I took each team’s offensive pressure allowed percentage, and defensive pressure generated percentage from Pro-Football-Reference. The median NFL pressure rates are shown below.

Week 13 Pressure Matchup Chart

Once I had the data, I made a series of median delta calculations. The DEF MEDIAN DELTA is each team’s defensive pressure rate above or below the NFL defensive pressure rate above. Positive DEF MEDIAN DELTA means that the defense is generating pressure above the league median, while negative DEF MEDIAN DELTA means the defense is generating less pressure than the league.

Similarly, the OFF MEDIAN DELTA is the offensive pressure rate allowed above or below the NFL offensive median rate above. Positive DEF MEDIAN DELTA means that the offense is allowing more pressure than the league median while negative OFF MEDIAN DELTA means the offense is allowing less pressure than the league.

For Week 13 matchups, I took the opposing team’s DEF MEDIAN DELTA and added the OFF MEDIAN DELTA. So for Buffalo, their offense gives up 1.15% more pressure than the league median. The New England Patriots generate 1.95% more pressure than the league. Hence adding the two numbers means New England has a pretty good chance to generate pressure on Josh Allen relative to other matchups.

Week 13 Explosive Matchup Chart

Rushing Tidbits

• Indianapolis Colts Jonathan Taylor is in another massive boom spot for fantasy football. He’s facing the Houston Texans with potential for many long-running plays.
• Philadelphia Eagles have been running the ball better; however, their rush explosiveness is skewed by Jalen Hurts rushing ability. Hurts has the chance to finish as QB1 this week in Lineup Showdown fantasy football leagues.
• If Chicago wants to upset the Arizona Cardinals, they must commit to running. Arizona defense does give up long runs but teams tend to fall behind and game script dictates passing snaps. David Montgomery likely will finish with a solid stat line and is a safe flex pick in fantasy football DFS and Lineup Showdown leagues.
• As for the Philadelphia Eagles, the Baltimore Ravens rushing explosiveness is mainly due to QB Lamar Jackson. He faces a depleted Steelers defense, but Pittsburgh does play Lamar well defensively.

Passing Tidbits

• The Minnesota Vikings offense is set up to e successful in both the run and the pass. Detriot’s pass rush will have a hard time as their pressure matchup is below league average; while they give up several explosive pass plays. Play your Vikings players in all fantasy football formats.
• I have a feeling Baltimore will sling the ball often during the second half, reminiscent of the Kansas City and Indianapolis games. Rashod Bateman and Mark Andrews could be great plays this week.
• Las Vegas has a great matchup to push the football downfield against the WFT. WFT cannot generate much pass rush and the Raiders like taking shots downfield. Derek Carr is a sneaky play in DFS this week.
• Mac Jones will get tested by the Buffalo Bills defense who play the pass admirably. However, the loss of White will have ripple effects. Also, look for New England to continue to lean on their run game here.
• Pass-catchers I am primarily targeting this week are Cooper Kupp, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Michael Gallup. These players have solid target share and good matchups.