Fantasy Football 2021: GameDay Edge – Week 15

Welcome to GameDay Edge Week 15 fantasy football community. In last week’s fantasy football GameDay Edge article, I introduced a new pressure chart. This chart showed how often offensive lines gave up pressures versus opposing defensive lines generated pressure above the NFL median. The pressure and explosive matchup charts are very helpful in finding some interesting game analysis.

This offseason I will work on correlating them to the weekly fantasy football outputs. The pressure chart is very informative, especially if there is a glaring miss-match. Take the Seattle-Houston and LA Charges-NY Giants games for example. Both the Texans nor the Giants had really bad matchups in terms of generating any pressure. Both defenses were below the league average in generating pressure, and faced elite pass-blocking units.

The interesting matchup was the Buffalo Bills with their league-leading pressure rate against the Tampa Bay league-lead offensive line allowing the least pressure rate. The chart favored the Buccaneers. Buffalo made a huge mistake by not forgoing the run in the first half.

Week 15 Median NFL Pressure Rates

 

Week 15 Pressure Matchup Chart

Check out Week 13’s article for an overview of the development of the Pressure Chart.

Week 15 Explosive Matchup Chart

Rushing Tidbits

• 15 games this week have positive rushing game matchups – with several having a double-digit advantage.
• In fantasy football DFS, go WR heavy and utilize a Tier 2 running back such as Devin Singletary.
• In DFS and Lineup Showdown leagues, I would target Jalen Hurts as he will have success rushing against the WFT.
• Minnesota Vikings have a plus matchup in both the run and pass. Look for them to win this divisional game and for Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson to have elite stat lines.
• Teams with elite rush matchups for fantasy football are Atlanta Falcons, Cleveland Browns, Buffalo Bills (if they run the ball), Jacksonville Jaguars, Minnesota Vikings, and NE Patriots.
• I left the Detriot Lions off the list because Arizona Cardinals passing offense will score a ton and likely force Detriot to pass more.
• Teams with bad rush matchups are Houston Texans, NY Jets, LV Raiders, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Passing Tidbits

• Arizona Cardinals will likely have a ton of success against the Detroit Lions secondary. Queue up Hopkins and James Conner in fantasy football DFS and Lineup Showdown league
• Green Bay Packers should have no problem passing the ball either, as the Baltimore Ravens defense have a below-average pressure matchup. They also have the second-worst explosive matchup.
• Another team set to explode in the aerial attack is Tampa Bay, with New Orleans defense having a horrible pressure matchup and explosive matchup.
• Tampa Bay – Buffalo game is a matchup of the offensive line (TB) allowing the fewest pressure rate (10.8%) versus the defense (BUF) generating the most pressure rate (30%). Due to Tampa’s OL insane performance thus far, the numbers favor Tampa; but look for the Bills to rattle Tom Brady. If the Bills do not execute their pressures, Tampa will win this game in a landslide.
• Teams with plus pass matchups with good explosive and pressure matchups are Arizona Cardinals, Green Bay Packers, Las Vegas Raiders, Minnesota Vikings, NE Patriots, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
• Teams with bad pass matchups are Carolina Panthers, Denver Broncos, Indianapolis Colts, and New York Giants.