Terrell Owens. Steve Smith Sr. Kenny Golladay. What do these wide receivers have in common? All three of these players were considered elite players who switched teams in the prime of their career; and have third round draft capital. So how do they compare stat-wise and for fantasy football; and what does this mean for Kenny Golladay this season? Let’s dive in.
Data Analysis
I wish I could explain through data how Kenny G is a bust in fantasy football this year, but it’s hard to distinguish that in numbers. Compared to the two players mentioned above, Golladay has lower FPTS/G (fantasy points per game). He also has a much lower catch-rate than Owens and Smith.
The data shows that Kenny G has the highest yards per reception by less than two yards. He sits just ahead of T.O. in catch percentage, in the middle of the three. Only his fantasy points are the lowest. The data implies that Golladay can, in fact, Go-all-day this year.
At least, that’s what I would say if he was still catching passes from Matt Stafford. Both Smith and Owens had their catch percentage and total receptions per year dropped when they switched to their second team.
Owens’ went from San Francisco to Philadelphia. He saw a dropby an average of 12 receptions per season and his catch rate dropped five percent. Smith dropped by an average of seven receptions a season.
Bad News Projections
Does that mean that Kenny Golladay will have a worse season than his average? The data projects so. I’m excluding his 2020 season from my data solely to ‘boost’ his stats. With a decrease of 10 receptions for the 2021 season from his 2017-2019 seasons, Kenny G would only have 44 receptions for 910 yards on a 57.7% catch rate.
That would result in only 183 fantasy football points in PPR formats. That’s assuming he plays his average of 14 games, and scores roughly 13 PPG. That’s lower than what Sleeper currently has him projected, as the WR33. Sleeper has him projected for 74 receptions and over 1,000 yards receiving.
The average regression doesn’t agree with that – unless the unmentioned data gives him a bump. Projecting him for 183 points would put him as WR58 on Sleeper below receivers like Darnell Mooney and Jalen Reagor, and just ahead of guys like Rondale Moore and Sterling Shepard. Not the best of company for someone you usually have to spend a 7th round pick on.
The Optimistic Projection
I mentioned that T.O. and Steve Smith both regressed in catch percentage and receptions, but I did not mention their average points per games until now. Both players surprisingly saw an increase when going to their new teams. T.O. increased by over 5 PPR points per game, and Steve Smith increased by 1.5 per game.
If you bump up Kenny G’s average from 13 PPG to 16.5 PPG over a 17 game season, it would result in him scoring 280.5 points. That’s nearly 50 points better than Sleeper’s projection of 231 points in PPR. That would make him WR10 on Sleeper’s projections. A fantastic value for someone in the 7th round.
Conslusion
Kenny Golladay is currently being drafted to be a WR3 on your fantasy football team. He is someone who has the potential of being the biggest steal of your fantasy draft at WR, like Stefon Diggs was last year. The biggest issue with Golladay is his injury history. The fact that I had to exclude his 2020 season data to make his averages reasonable, shows just how hurt he was last year. Even if you project a 15 game season for him last year, he would still have had his worst season since his rookie year.
If the Giants prove they can win with Daniel Jones, Saquon Barkley, and Kenny Golladay, then Golladay is a steal in drafts. It’s just hard to believe in the Giants this year. Our own Nick Pellegrini even included Kenny G on his Worst Draft Possible list! For me, Kenny Golladay is a bust this season and I am avoiding him in all my drafts.
Hunter Greene
Hunter started writing for The League Winners in the summer of 2021. Hunter has been playing fantasy football for about a decade, starting in middle school. Now he’s a professional landscaper and avid Colts and Purdue fan.