Fantasy Football 2021: League Winning QB and TE Draft Rounds

The game of fantasy football ebbs and flows through the years, similar to how the NFL changes. The 2020 NFL season was one of the best years in recent history for scoring touchdowns through the air. Last year saw two different quarterbacks with over 50 touchdowns, and two tight ends score over 10 touchdowns. I charted the past three seasons (2018-2020) to see where to find the gems to help maximize your chance at a league winning player.

Quarterbacks

With the quarterback position, one thing is for certain: Patrick Mahomes is on a different level of play. Over the past three season, Mahomes has averaged over 20 fantasy points per game each season, and over 25 in two of those three seasons.

When looking at that data range, I found that there are five rounds in fantasy drafts (12-team league) where QBs score an average of 20 or more points per game. If a QB has an ADP in the 1st, 2nd, 4th, 6th, or 8th round, they tend to maximize the chance of your QB outscoring your opponent’s.

In the 2020 season, only one QB with an ADP in one of those rounds finished with less than 20PPG – that was Carson Wentz with 17.8. 2019 was similar, with Matt Ryan and Carson Wentz having 18.8 and 17.7 points per game respectively. 2018 was the worst performance for a QB in these rounds, with Matt Stafford averaging only 13.3.

Players in that range this year include Patrick Mahomes, Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, Tom Brady, Jalen Hurts, and Joe Burrow. All six of these players have either proven themselves to have high floors, or have the potential to have extraordinary breakout seasons.

Late-Round QBs

For those of you who prefer the late-round QB approach, look for QBs with ADPs in the 11th, 12th, or 13th rounds. These are some older, but solid guys like Kirk Cousins and Ben Roethlisberger; alongside younger guys like Tua Tagovailoa and the three rookie QBs: Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, and Trey Lance.

The veterans provide a high floor/low ceiling approach. The first and second year QBs provide low floor/high ceiling value. A perfect pairing if you play your cards right.

If you go with the late-round QB approach, grab one veteran and one younger QB for your 1QB leagues.

Tight Ends

Like quarterbacks, one tight end stands apart from the rest: Travis Kelce. 2016 was the last time a tight end (Rob Gronkowski) had an ADP inside the first round of 12-team, PPR drafts. Coincidently, that was the first season of Travis Kelce‘s 5-year run as the undisputed TE1 in fantasy football.

Looking at the same three year range as the quarterbacks, the first four rounds of drafts produce the best TEs; with their averages being 8.9+ in Standard formats, 11.8+ in Half-PPR, and 14.7+ in PPR. The next best round is Round 6.

Looking at the TEs in those five rounds this year, we have Travis Kelce in Round 1, Darren Waller in Round 2, George Kittle in Round 3, and Kyle Pitts in Round 4. In the three years I looked into, only T.J. Hockenson had a Top-16 ADP as a rookie. Hockenson averaged only 6.7PPG in PPR formats. Even though the historical round averages say Pitts is worth the pick, the data also shows no previous rookie was worth their ADP.

Late-Round TEs

As some have said, you should either approach TEs with the ‘Great or Late’ strategy. If you miss out on the top players at the position, look to grab a TE or two in the 10th, 11th, or 12th rounds.

These players are Mike Gesicki, Tyler Higbee, Jonnu Smith, and Rob Gronkowski. Irv Smith Jr. was also a part of this group, prior to his injury.

Grabbing two of these guys late will allow you to play the better matchup while still having TEs that average over 10PPG in PPR formats. For more help on possible league winning tight ends, check out Suhkwant’s article Late Round Fliers at TE.

Conclusion

If you have any fantasy football drafts left, keep in mind the data. Yes, early QBs and TEs both provide the best chance at maximum points for the positions. Just don’t let that stop you from drafting RBs and WRs early too. 

I would suggest grabbing either a QB or TE early, and focus on the other position later. Grabbing a TE like Kelce and pairing him with a QB pair like Cousins & Fields gives you a solid floor each week with a high upside opportunity – and the chance to draft RBs and WRs in rounds 2-11. Remember, you cannot win your fantasy football league at the draft, but you can set yourself up for a good season.

Hunter Greene

Hunter started writing for The League Winners in the summer of 2021. Hunter has been playing fantasy football for about a decade, starting in middle school. Now he’s a professional landscaper and avid Colts and Purdue fan.