Fantasy football fans are rushing to finalize their cheat sheets as the draft season is upon us. So let’s take a look at the potential top-15 fantasy football quarterbacks for redraft leagues this year.
QB1 – Patrick Mahomes
Patrick Mahomes is easily the best quarterback currently playing; however, Patrick Mahomes likely will not finish the season as the QB1 in fantasy football. So why is he ranked QB1? Simple, he carries the lowest risk and highest floor. Patrick Mahomes will seldom give you a dud performance as evidenced by his 7% bust rate (a bust is placing below QB18) which was second to only Aaron Rodgers‘ 6% for quarterbacks starting at least five games.
QB2 – Kyler Murray
Kyler Murray has the best chance to finish as QB1. Murray can finish the season with 1000 yards rushing and 4000 passing in a 17 game slate while eclipsing 30 passing and 10 rushing touchdowns. With Arizona’s defense being a liability, Murray will have to continue to be a playmaker for the Cardinals to win games. Murray had 25 red zone carries in 2020 and with defenses focusing on Murray’s restocked offensive cast, Murray can thrive in the red zone again.
QB3 – Josh Allen
Josh Allen‘s phenomenal 2020 season is nothing sort of magical. It is rare to make the type of jump like the one Allen made from 2019 to 2020. A lot of folks contribute Stefon Diggs as the reason, but it was also Josh Allen’s offseason work on his mechanics with quarterback guru Jordan Palmer. Josh Allen’s prowess in rushing near the goal line is also why he is a safe bet to finish the season as a top-five fantasy football QB in 2021.
QB4 – Lamar Jackson
Lamar Jackson had a ‘down’ year in 2020 relative to his MVP season. What quarterback does not have a relative down year following their MVP year? Lamar’s rushing attempts alone provide a floor for him to finish as a top-5 fantasy football quarterback in 2021. For Lamar to finish as QB1, he would have to reach passing efficiency at the 2019 level again.
QB5 – Aaron Rodgers
Aaron Rodgers had his third MVP season on the back of throwing 48 touchdowns. Regression is sure to kick in as his 9.1% touchdown rate is unsustainable. However, even regressing to the norm means close to throwing 30 touchdowns. Rodgers is one of the most gifted pure passers of the football and rarely commits turnovers. However, the lack of rushing upside means his third-place finish last season is likely the ceiling. What makes Rodgers top five is his lack of bust performances throughout his career making another top ten finish likely in 2021.
QB6 – Dak Prescott
Dak Prescott was off to a hot start in 2020 before suffering a gruesome injury that ended his season. In the first four games in 2020, Dak finished in the top three twice and top six three times. That is an incredible feat but one that is no surprise; Dak is a talented QB in a great situation. The Cowboy’s offense is extremely loaded at skill positions. If the defense plays as it did in 2020, Dak will have to score. Dak is one of the favorites to reach the QB1 rank but there are some concerns on how he starts the season after that injury.
QB7 – Russell Wilson
Let Russ Cook!!! Russell Wilson is consistently in fantasy football. Russ has never place outside the top-12 in fantasy football since entering the league.. He is as consistent as they come. What has hindered Russell are games in which the coaching staff takes the ball out of his hands. Russell offers a high floor (QB11) but has a limited ceiling due to various factors like playcalling and offensive line play.
QB8 – Tom Brady
It is Tom Brady versus Father Time. Tom Brady is doing remarkable things at the age of 44 defying any quarterback stats. If you want to know the reason why, watch Tom’s cameo in the pilot episode of Paul Rudd’s Living with Yourself on Netflix. Comical references aside, Tom proved he can thrive outside Belichick’s wings by winning a Super Bowl last season with Tampa Bay. In Arians’ ‘Air it Out’ scheme, expect Tom Brady to continue to throw 30+ times a game – giving him the upside to finish in the top ten again in 2021.
QB9 – Justin Herbert
Justin Herbert enters his second year in a better situation than 2020, in which he placed as the QB9. The Chargers’ offensive line should be much better by adding Corey Linsley from the Packers, and drafting Rashawn Slater in the first round of the NFL draft. If the offensive line can gel and develop into a middle-of-the-pack unit, the Chargers have the pieces to challenge the Chiefs for the division.
Herbert also gets a new coordinator in Joe Lombardi from the New Orleans Saints. This change can lead to a gain in efficiency for the offense, yielding better scoring opportunities. Herbert’s displayed immense talent in his rookie year, and should progress nicely in his second year.
QB10 – Ryan Tannehill
Escaping Adam Gase has done wonders for Tannehill. Tannehill’s seven rushing touchdowns helped him finish as the QB7 in 2020. A signature play for the Tennessee Titans was the RPO, as Tannehill saw plenty of open space with defense’s focusing on Derrick Henry and AJ Brown. The usage of this play, especially in the red zone, offers the rushing floor for Tannehill to once again finish as a top-12 QB in fantasy football.
QB11 – Matthew Stafford
Is Matthew Stafford the perfect quarterback for Sean McVay? Yes, he is. Stafford allows McVay to expand his playcalling as defenses cannot just load the box to force McVay’s offense into an unfavorable numbers advantage. Ranking Stafford at QB11 feels low as the combination of McVay, Stafford, Henderson, Woods, and Kupp can create a matchup nightmare for defenses. Stafford finished the 2020 season as QB15 which is the floor for him in 2021. Do not be surprised if Stafford leads the NFL in throwing touchdowns this season.
QB12 – Jalen Hurts
Jalen Hurts has the upside to finish 2021 as the QB1 due to his rushing ability and playing on a team with bad defense. Just look at the game against the Saints last year to see the upside is there. However, the biggest knock on Hurts is his accuracy, which was 52% in 2020. Was this due to overall bad play by the Eagles’ offense or was it solely on Jalen Hurts? If Hurts can improve as a passer even just a little, Hurts’ ceiling is limitless due to his massive rushing upside.
QB13 – Kirk Cousins
Kirk Cousins is blessed with a unit that includes Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, and Adam Thielen, giving him a chance to finish in the top-12 every year. Cousins is a safe pick late in drafts to pair along with a potential riskier league-winning quarterback such as Trey Lance or Justin Fields. Kirk provides those late QB drafters the best potential to finish with QB1 fantasy points hence he comes in as QB13.
QB14 – Joe Burrow
Up until his injury, Joe Burrow was QB16 in fantasy football. Burrow has the weapons to produce, with an offensive unit starting Joe Mixon, Ja’marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd. Burrow managers can enjoy garbage time points, similar to Blake Bortles during his time the Jaguars. The biggest issue is if the Bengals do enough to bolster the offensive line to protect Burrow, or will Burrow have any hesitation playing post-injury as reported in training camp.
QB15 – Trevor Lawrence
Urban Meyer finally claimed Trevor Lawrence as the starting quarterback for the Jaguars. Lawrence lost some hype this offseason, but he’s been considered a generational talent several years before he took a step in the NFL. Similar to Joe Burrow, Trevor will find himself playing catch-up most games, giving him a high weekly floor. Trevor played against some NFL-caliber defenses in college and has a high football IQ. Lawrence can catapult himself to a top ten finish due to volume, football intelligence, and rushing ability to escape a collapsing pocket.
The Potential Leauge Winners
Here at The League Winners, our goal is to help you win your fantasy football league. Therefore, I will highlight some quarterbacks with elite upside, but are much riskier than the top-15 listed above. So keep a bench spot warm to store one of these quarterbacks for a late-season run through the playoffs.
Jamies Winston
Sean Payton announced that Jamies Winston will start for the New Orleans Saints. Winston has the ability to take the top off of defenses, allowing Alvin Kamara to work underneath – similar to the Brees-led offenses before 2019.
Playing behind a stellar offensive line, Winston has upside to throw for 4,000+ yards and 30 touchdowns. Jamies can easily be a top ten QB this year in Sean Payton’s system.
Justin Fields
Matt Nagy is adamant about starting Andy Dalton. Several people argue Nagy is simply using Dalton as a prop to prolong his stay in Chicago. If Dalton fails early, Nagy can insert Fields mid-season and possibly win more games, giving Nagy the argument to come back with Fields as the starter Week 1 in 2022. If and when Fields starts, his football IQ, rushing ability and accuracy have the upside to win you games.
Trey Lance
Do not be surprised if Trey Lance sits all year. He has the most talent of all the quarterbacks (in my opinion) and fits the 49ers’ offensive scheme like a glove. However, the talent is raw and the 49ers are committed to Jimmy G. Even in preseason games, Trey Lance displayed bursts of explosive plays while simultaneously showcasing the rawness in his game. However, if he gets the chance to start at any point this season, his playmaking ability provides league-winning upside.
